One sign that the SP 500 top is in from last week: The rally from the August low was a Fib 61.8 percent of the move in trading days to the rally from the April low into the July high. It was also tied into the high of July 27.2023 and the October 27, 2023 low although the SP made the high on the 26th last week. The Dow made the high on the 27th. Also, we saw a weekly topping bar for most indices.
We’re getting preliminary sell signals. Stuff that one sees before the start of a decline but doesn’t work in a raging bull market.
The 30 day simple moving average has remained above a certain indicator which is indicating market uncertainty. In a bull, the indicator would be above a trending rising 30 day average. This is the pattern seen at major tops like in 2021-2022.
The 13 day simple moving average has caught up to the market (which partly indicates exhaustion). The SP 500 dropped to it today but did not close below it.
So there is still a chance that the market might make one more final high (wave5?) like was seen when the SP bounced off the 13 day average in late August. A drop below the 13 day average would indicate the decline is on.
Tomorrow there is a solar eclipse so we could see either see a top or something nasty. It will have a near square with Mars and a few other minor planets are in the mix.
The 17 year cycle ties into 1973. I will elaborate on that later.
That was like the 1987 top with a little 1929 top thrown in on Thursday. Also similar to the late July 2007 high.
It is interesting that the 13 and 30 day simple moving averages have converged. The markets generally freefall when they converge. (usually following a bounceback rally to this convergence.) They were too far apart during the early September decline which had me sceptical about that decline along with the tightening Bollinger bands. (which was also occurring with the Vix. The Bollinger bands are in a much better setup now) My minor sells have erased but the technical setup of the market is very bearish. I expect a bigger decline on Monday.
We have to watch out because the stock market topped out on February 19th, also a Thursday, before plummeting into the Covid Crash of 2020. Some technical setups aren’t right for that but we have to watch out for 2+% declines for a warning. The Transports were down 3.5% yesterday.
Another day like today tomorrow and it will look like the 1929 top. The last few weeks pattern is similar to the 1987 August top (longer in duration) and the March 2000 top. Of course they changed things up to fool recognizing the pattern match and kept the market flat since July.
The 1929 top saw three days down followed by a final rally to a high finished off by two gravestone dojis. This last decline was basically 3 down days followed by a slower advance to new highs
The full moon is today. The SP made a slightly higher high intraday. It’s also 99 weeks from the October 13,2022 lows. The markets like to do cycles involving 11multiples. Today is also 696 days from that low.
I think this puts denouement off until after the election which was a suspected time frame as geopolitical events explode. 10-24 is a key date though. We’ll have to see how things are transpiring as we approach that date. I expect wild swings ahead. We might now be entering the late July phase of the 2007 topping process.
Also crude oil is setting up a pattern similar to its July 1990 bottom. I think it needs to chop around in its new lower range for a little while more. Look for the 30 day average to get super extended from the 100 day average. As I remember, crude should tag its flat lower weekly Bollinger Band for the bottom.
We just had a mini rally into a 3rd lower high like at the end of May 2011. I have a few minor sell signals now but there is an interesting technical formation that could indicate we are still in a bear phase. The 30 day average of several prominent averages is above a certain technical indicator. In a bull run, it’s usually the other way around. I’m sure it was in that condition in late 2011 but I can’t check anymore because a certain chart website has become difficult. A continued rally would change that situation though.
But a continued rally would send another indicator to the moon to its highest levels in the past 3 years. That’s more analagous to a raging bull market. Is that likely? Especially with a killer cycle linked to the Covid crash of 2020 coming up?
One sign that the SP 500 top is in from last week: The rally from the August low was a Fib 61.8 percent of the move in trading days to the rally from the April low into the July high. It was also tied into the high of July 27.2023 and the October 27, 2023 low although the SP made the high on the 26th last week. The Dow made the high on the 27th. Also, we saw a weekly topping bar for most indices.
We’re getting preliminary sell signals. Stuff that one sees before the start of a decline but doesn’t work in a raging bull market.
The 30 day simple moving average has remained above a certain indicator which is indicating market uncertainty. In a bull, the indicator would be above a trending rising 30 day average. This is the pattern seen at major tops like in 2021-2022.
The 13 day simple moving average has caught up to the market (which partly indicates exhaustion). The SP 500 dropped to it today but did not close below it.
So there is still a chance that the market might make one more final high (wave5?) like was seen when the SP bounced off the 13 day average in late August. A drop below the 13 day average would indicate the decline is on.
Tomorrow there is a solar eclipse so we could see either see a top or something nasty. It will have a near square with Mars and a few other minor planets are in the mix.
The 17 year cycle ties into 1973. I will elaborate on that later.
The 10 day average was below the 20 day average for the SP 500 which was seen when the Nasdaq made its final high in late March 2000.
That was like the 1987 top with a little 1929 top thrown in on Thursday. Also similar to the late July 2007 high.
It is interesting that the 13 and 30 day simple moving averages have converged. The markets generally freefall when they converge. (usually following a bounceback rally to this convergence.) They were too far apart during the early September decline which had me sceptical about that decline along with the tightening Bollinger bands. (which was also occurring with the Vix. The Bollinger bands are in a much better setup now) My minor sells have erased but the technical setup of the market is very bearish. I expect a bigger decline on Monday.
We have to watch out because the stock market topped out on February 19th, also a Thursday, before plummeting into the Covid Crash of 2020. Some technical setups aren’t right for that but we have to watch out for 2+% declines for a warning. The Transports were down 3.5% yesterday.
Another day like today tomorrow and it will look like the 1929 top. The last few weeks pattern is similar to the 1987 August top (longer in duration) and the March 2000 top. Of course they changed things up to fool recognizing the pattern match and kept the market flat since July.
The 1929 top saw three days down followed by a final rally to a high finished off by two gravestone dojis. This last decline was basically 3 down days followed by a slower advance to new highs
Wild swings like the summers of 2011, 2015 also. The multi month chop fest seems to be their preferred modus operandi for denouement.
The full moon is today. The SP made a slightly higher high intraday. It’s also 99 weeks from the October 13,2022 lows. The markets like to do cycles involving 11multiples. Today is also 696 days from that low.
I think this puts denouement off until after the election which was a suspected time frame as geopolitical events explode. 10-24 is a key date though. We’ll have to see how things are transpiring as we approach that date. I expect wild swings ahead. We might now be entering the late July phase of the 2007 topping process.
Mars is squaring the moon’s node soon which is when we can get these geopolitical events. There is a solar eclipse on October 2.
Also crude oil is setting up a pattern similar to its July 1990 bottom. I think it needs to chop around in its new lower range for a little while more. Look for the 30 day average to get super extended from the 100 day average. As I remember, crude should tag its flat lower weekly Bollinger Band for the bottom.
We just had a mini rally into a 3rd lower high like at the end of May 2011. I have a few minor sell signals now but there is an interesting technical formation that could indicate we are still in a bear phase. The 30 day average of several prominent averages is above a certain technical indicator. In a bull run, it’s usually the other way around. I’m sure it was in that condition in late 2011 but I can’t check anymore because a certain chart website has become difficult. A continued rally would change that situation though.
But a continued rally would send another indicator to the moon to its highest levels in the past 3 years. That’s more analagous to a raging bull market. Is that likely? Especially with a killer cycle linked to the Covid crash of 2020 coming up?