Max pain theory – price action toward expiration conspires to cause maximum losses for option holders. I’d rather be an option seller early in the cycle and cover short options as expiration approaches.
Technical Analysis wise we should gap tomorrow and drop hard… but SkyNet likes to fool the sheep and do the opposite of what most think will and should happen. If the chart was flipped upside down we’d have a bullish setup… which would most likely play out. But when it’s a bearish setup it usually gets manipulated the other way.
And the VIX is making a similar pattern to what it did the week of January 15th where it went up to around 25, pulled back to around 20, went back up to 25 area again, failed to break through and then dropped hard back to 14 over the next week or so.
While I’m certainly not expecting a drop again to 14 I could see a pullback to hit the rising trendline of support on the VIX around 18 or so… which should be 2040 area on the SPX, and then we should drop again I think. Tuesday the 20th of January is my best guess for the next shorting opportunity.
The daily bollinger bands for the SP are just below today’s lows and the lower band is curling up which should provide support until it flares open again so I am guessing a little bounce tomorrow (or possibly a big one). It’s 13 trading days off the top as well.
All the indices are also at intra month support and near the Dec. low support so that could spark a short term bounce but the daily trend should be down after the brief 2 day counter trend move last week which is about as long as a counter term pop should take. The Dow tested intra month support 13 tds out as well in double ninen.
SP also could not take out yesterday’s lows which is also a dubious condition that could see a pop tomorrow. Nasdaq and $rut definitely did but they are at Dec. lows area again which could provide some resistance.
Looks like the college championship game 1987 ritual was centered on Urban Meyer after all. Notice the 12-15 (87) QB RB combo that led the way for Ohio St. LeBron was even doing intra game tweets that were being aired by the broadcast (led of course by the pretty boy Ohio State grad with the ’69 bday so should have been a’87 high school grad…..more later….even Tebow was there as part of the broadcast crew—so it definitely had the feel of the grand ritual bowl even though BAMA wasn’t a part of it….something is going on with Ohio though….17th state admitted on March 1 early 1800s, admitted retroactively)
As I said in the post and video I think we’ll hold the line this week so the closing price tomorrow keeps the weekly candle from breaking the rising wedge (around 1970-1970 SPX), so a Friday rally could happen (should happen) to make the puts expiring tomorrow worthless.
But next week is another story I think, as I fully expect the selling to continue until the end of January, right into the Legatus meeting and the FOMC meeting before turning back up.
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Although, Eugene Oregon is a Bradley city, I don’t see a ritualistic reason for Oregon to defeat Ohio State other than that they are the superior team. The date of their 1987 matchup, September 19,1987 (probably their last match?) probably has more occutlic significance that the actual game. Since Urban Meyer was on OSU’s coaching staff then, the ritual will be centered on him but I don’t know if that is enough to swing the odds to OSU’s favor.
Meyer of course won championships at Florida several years ago with Tebow as his quarterback most notably on January 8, 2009 or 6 years 4 months ago in Tebow’s famous 316 (John 3:16 eyeblack) game.(against Oklahoma)
Ok I don’t feel like spending anymore time on the college championship game tonight so I will just summarize things. The game is centered around OSU coach Urban Meyer who was on the OSU coaching staff in 1987. Oregon and OSU played each other in 1987 with Ohio State winning. The ritual might be centered around Urban Meyer but Oregon is the better team and I see them winning. They’re missing one of their star receivers which the media is playing up so the operators seem to be steering the masses to Ohio St. The 3rd string QB, playing in the Big 10 reality is going to come back to haunt them in this game as they go up against the Heisman QB led Ducks.
Max pain theory – price action toward expiration conspires to cause maximum losses for option holders. I’d rather be an option seller early in the cycle and cover short options as expiration approaches.
Technical Analysis wise we should gap tomorrow and drop hard… but SkyNet likes to fool the sheep and do the opposite of what most think will and should happen. If the chart was flipped upside down we’d have a bullish setup… which would most likely play out. But when it’s a bearish setup it usually gets manipulated the other way.
And the VIX is making a similar pattern to what it did the week of January 15th where it went up to around 25, pulled back to around 20, went back up to 25 area again, failed to break through and then dropped hard back to 14 over the next week or so.
While I’m certainly not expecting a drop again to 14 I could see a pullback to hit the rising trendline of support on the VIX around 18 or so… which should be 2040 area on the SPX, and then we should drop again I think. Tuesday the 20th of January is my best guess for the next shorting opportunity.
$vix couldn’t break above its high from yesterday as well and was finding resistance from its upper Bband.
The daily bollinger bands for the SP are just below today’s lows and the lower band is curling up which should provide support until it flares open again so I am guessing a little bounce tomorrow (or possibly a big one). It’s 13 trading days off the top as well.
All the indices are also at intra month support and near the Dec. low support so that could spark a short term bounce but the daily trend should be down after the brief 2 day counter trend move last week which is about as long as a counter term pop should take. The Dow tested intra month support 13 tds out as well in double ninen.
SP also could not take out yesterday’s lows which is also a dubious condition that could see a pop tomorrow. Nasdaq and $rut definitely did but they are at Dec. lows area again which could provide some resistance.
Looks like the college championship game 1987 ritual was centered on Urban Meyer after all. Notice the 12-15 (87) QB RB combo that led the way for Ohio St. LeBron was even doing intra game tweets that were being aired by the broadcast (led of course by the pretty boy Ohio State grad with the ’69 bday so should have been a’87 high school grad…..more later….even Tebow was there as part of the broadcast crew—so it definitely had the feel of the grand ritual bowl even though BAMA wasn’t a part of it….something is going on with Ohio though….17th state admitted on March 1 early 1800s, admitted retroactively)
As I said in the post and video I think we’ll hold the line this week so the closing price tomorrow keeps the weekly candle from breaking the rising wedge (around 1970-1970 SPX), so a Friday rally could happen (should happen) to make the puts expiring tomorrow worthless.
But next week is another story I think, as I fully expect the selling to continue until the end of January, right into the Legatus meeting and the FOMC meeting before turning back up.
New post: http://reddragonleo.com/2015/01/14/outlook-for-the-stock-market-in-2015/
Hello everyone here, I am agent Paul Zerek. one of the agents sent by the high LUCIFER to bring as many of those who are interested in becoming a member of the Illuminati to the great Illuminati temple, Do you want to be a member of Illuminati as a brotherhood that will make you rich and famous in the world and have power to control people in the high place in the worldwide .Are you a business man or woman,artist, political, musician, student, do you want to be rich, famous, powerful in life, join the House of Illuminati riches today and get instant rich sum of. 2 million dollars in a week, and a free home. Am a business man I own construction companies all over the world but I was once like you I could not even feed my family what kind of life was that to live, I lived in poverty until I saw an opportunity to be a member of the great House of illuminati riches and I took my chances and I have been a member for the past 28 years now and the higher you get the richer you become. Illuminati makes your business grow these and many more other benefits. If you are serious and ready to become a member Email us now (Houseofilluminatiriches@yahoo.com) or you call the most high one +2348163395533…
wtf does this has to do with the market!!!! enough already with this non sense crap. Give it a rest man.
Well, here’s a wee bit of occultic analysis:
Although, Eugene Oregon is a Bradley city, I don’t see a ritualistic reason for Oregon to defeat Ohio State other than that they are the superior team. The date of their 1987 matchup, September 19,1987 (probably their last match?) probably has more occutlic significance that the actual game. Since Urban Meyer was on OSU’s coaching staff then, the ritual will be centered on him but I don’t know if that is enough to swing the odds to OSU’s favor.
Meyer of course won championships at Florida several years ago with Tebow as his quarterback most notably on January 8, 2009 or 6 years 4 months ago in Tebow’s famous 316 (John 3:16 eyeblack) game.(against Oklahoma)
Ok I don’t feel like spending anymore time on the college championship game tonight so I will just summarize things. The game is centered around OSU coach Urban Meyer who was on the OSU coaching staff in 1987. Oregon and OSU played each other in 1987 with Ohio State winning. The ritual might be centered around Urban Meyer but Oregon is the better team and I see them winning. They’re missing one of their star receivers which the media is playing up so the operators seem to be steering the masses to Ohio St. The 3rd string QB, playing in the Big 10 reality is going to come back to haunt them in this game as they go up against the Heisman QB led Ducks.
I’ll save my occultic analysis for a later post.