Well, the market went thru your ’95 trendline like a knife thru liquid butter. It would be interesting to see a real live 1500 point crash. These guys are good – doing this mid-week, since PPT won’t allow a crash on a Monday any more.
SP declined 5.16% and Dow 4.6% the day before the October 1987 crash, their first day below the 200 day average but tomorrow my key indicator will NOT be in crash territory but I don’t want to see a rally like off the June lows that would relieve this oversold condition and setup a bearish reset.
Only 149 advancers on the NYSE today. That is usually the sign of a bottom but we are still in no man’s land. I need to review the 1987 crash again. Once the indices broke beneath the 200 day average, the declines became progressively bigger each day until the crash.
The US still hasn’t been downgraded and that $1 Billion Dollar bet is still out there! Do you think they will announce the downgrading tomorrow and cause more selling?
Yes, I’d estimate that 9 out 10 times when you get a bottoming tail candle on the daily like yesterday… it would bounce hard! What changed this time? No POMO is the answer I believe. I think their are now a lot of bears on the sidelines from selling out yesterday on that candle and a lot of newly trapped bulls.
While a lot of people think we will bounce tomorrow on the non-farm payroll report coming in better then expected, I don’t think so. Why would they let the bulls out and give the bears another short entry? People think that the bears are trapped and will get squeezed… I think the bulls are trapped and the bears are on the sidelines wanting back in.
This tells me that a crash is possible tomorrow as every bull will sell on the first little bounce. They are trapped from yesterday and down 300+ points now. I think that any bounce we will get will happen next week after the market has the weekend to calm down. Of course I don’t see it going too far back up, but I guess that depends on how many trapped bulls their are?
Yeah tomorrow could be really ugly. I’m working on a video now and will have it up in a couple of hours.
Well, the market went thru your ’95 trendline like a knife thru liquid butter. It would be interesting to see a real live 1500 point crash. These guys are good – doing this mid-week, since PPT won’t allow a crash on a Monday any more.
What is everyone’s downside targets?
http://rocsinvestmentaccount.webs.com/
H/S points to 1140 on s/p. Alot of more selling to go.
S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/08/s-500-analysis-after-closing-bell_05.html
SP declined 5.16% and Dow 4.6% the day before the October 1987 crash, their first day below the 200 day average but tomorrow my key indicator will NOT be in crash territory but I don’t want to see a rally like off the June lows that would relieve this oversold condition and setup a bearish reset.
Only 149 advancers on the NYSE today. That is usually the sign of a bottom but we are still in no man’s land. I need to review the 1987 crash again. Once the indices broke beneath the 200 day average, the declines became progressively bigger each day until the crash.
The US still hasn’t been downgraded and that $1 Billion Dollar bet is still out there! Do you think they will announce the downgrading tomorrow and cause more selling?
One disturbing sign of complacency is the $vix. It is still below its March high. DBC (commodities) also haven’t broken beneath their lows of June.
TLT, bonds, are now at 2010 highs resistance levels. JNK finally getting hammered but still above the June lows..
Yes, I’d estimate that 9 out 10 times when you get a bottoming tail candle on the daily like yesterday… it would bounce hard! What changed this time? No POMO is the answer I believe. I think their are now a lot of bears on the sidelines from selling out yesterday on that candle and a lot of newly trapped bulls.
While a lot of people think we will bounce tomorrow on the non-farm payroll report coming in better then expected, I don’t think so. Why would they let the bulls out and give the bears another short entry? People think that the bears are trapped and will get squeezed… I think the bulls are trapped and the bears are on the sidelines wanting back in.
This tells me that a crash is possible tomorrow as every bull will sell on the first little bounce. They are trapped from yesterday and down 300+ points now. I think that any bounce we will get will happen next week after the market has the weekend to calm down. Of course I don’t see it going too far back up, but I guess that depends on how many trapped bulls their are?