the market wants to ignore good earnings, and play economic reports. ok, fine by me, i can play that way too—-
they have the friday’s jobs reports number—the fix is in—it is set so
low, 50K, i think there will be a surprise to the upside. tomorrow, ADP
jobs reports, 100K estimate. if that gets 150K, look out bears,
i’m looking for an intraday bounce 1262 or 1272, on the spx for wed. if
above 1272, that could be enough buying, to reach my other signal at
1300-1305
BTW—i’d short 1305 if i see that—i’m suspecting the vix to trade sideways, next couple of weeks.
Just a quick update, as a new video isn’t really necessary yet. I would like to say that we are going to bounce from here and put in a wave 2 up… but I can’t. While the market is very oversold right now, and should bounce, unless the government tells the PPT to stop the selling there’s just no money for any large rally.
We could get a small one tomorrow, if the economic news out isn’t bad and is actually good… but I’m not expecting that too happen. You have ADP Employment, Factory Orders, ISM Services, Crude Inventories, and 3, 10 and 30 year bonds announcements and reports out. Some how I think most of it will be bad, and more selling will happen.
It looks to me like the big institutions are selling right now, and not the retail bears. Without free money to hold up the market, I just don’t see how a big rally can happen. You can bet that every trapped bull will be selling on any bounce to get out of their trapped longs… which means the market isn’t likely to bounce very far. I don’t think the bears have too worry about a short squeeze anytime soon.
From a technical point, a rally should start asap… but reality (as in… “the lack of free POMO money”) tells me we will go down lower again tomorrow. Oversold can stay oversold for longer then anyone expects. Trying to catch the bottom and go long without the PPT’s POMO money to support you, is like flushing money down the toilet.
I’m sure a bounce will come soon, but the first one will likely fail and give the bears an exit out before the 2nd attempt. We also have the One Billion Dollar bet that the US gets downgraded… the “when” part is unknown, but I’d say it will be soon and surprise everyone when it happens. I wouldn’t want to be long when that news comes out.
Ok, that’s about it for Tuesday’s update. I remain short for now. Good luck everyone.
Which is why I’m scratching my head as to what is the best course of action. Maybe I should use my reptilian brain?? OK, tell me that wasn’t a good one!
I think a lot of people are expecting a bounce around this area, as it’s a double bottom from early June… but actually it’s a triple bottom from early March. You know what they say about triple bottoms? Answer: There isn’t any! Meaning they fail…. which is exactly what I expect to happen tomorrow. What the bulls panic when this keeps on dropping instead of rallying!
Long to short. That was quick.
The bulls are running scared now!
SPX hits previous support level: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/08/s-500-near-previous-support-level.html
Open gap down to $96 area in TLT.
http://rocsinvestmentaccount.webs.com/
the above statement can quickly turn into hero to zero advice. use ant navigation:)
the market wants to ignore good earnings, and play economic reports. ok, fine by me, i can play that way too—-
they have the friday’s jobs reports number—the fix is in—it is set so
low, 50K, i think there will be a surprise to the upside. tomorrow, ADP
jobs reports, 100K estimate. if that gets 150K, look out bears,
i’m looking for an intraday bounce 1262 or 1272, on the spx for wed. if
above 1272, that could be enough buying, to reach my other signal at
1300-1305
BTW—i’d short 1305 if i see that—i’m suspecting the vix to trade sideways, next couple of weeks.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/russell-napier-bear-market-bottom-will-be-sp-400
Just a quick update, as a new video isn’t really necessary yet. I would like to say that we are going to bounce from here and put in a wave 2 up… but I can’t. While the market is very oversold right now, and should bounce, unless the government tells the PPT to stop the selling there’s just no money for any large rally.
We could get a small one tomorrow, if the economic news out isn’t bad and is actually good… but I’m not expecting that too happen. You have ADP Employment, Factory Orders, ISM Services, Crude Inventories, and 3, 10 and 30 year bonds announcements and reports out. Some how I think most of it will be bad, and more selling will happen.
It looks to me like the big institutions are selling right now, and not the retail bears. Without free money to hold up the market, I just don’t see how a big rally can happen. You can bet that every trapped bull will be selling on any bounce to get out of their trapped longs… which means the market isn’t likely to bounce very far. I don’t think the bears have too worry about a short squeeze anytime soon.
From a technical point, a rally should start asap… but reality (as in… “the lack of free POMO money”) tells me we will go down lower again tomorrow. Oversold can stay oversold for longer then anyone expects. Trying to catch the bottom and go long without the PPT’s POMO money to support you, is like flushing money down the toilet.
I’m sure a bounce will come soon, but the first one will likely fail and give the bears an exit out before the 2nd attempt. We also have the One Billion Dollar bet that the US gets downgraded… the “when” part is unknown, but I’d say it will be soon and surprise everyone when it happens. I wouldn’t want to be long when that news comes out.
Ok, that’s about it for Tuesday’s update. I remain short for now. Good luck everyone.
Exactly.
Which is why I’m scratching my head as to what is the best course of action. Maybe I should use my reptilian brain?? OK, tell me that wasn’t a good one!
I think a lot of people are expecting a bounce around this area, as it’s a double bottom from early June… but actually it’s a triple bottom from early March. You know what they say about triple bottoms? Answer: There isn’t any! Meaning they fail…. which is exactly what I expect to happen tomorrow. What the bulls panic when this keeps on dropping instead of rallying!