The Thrice lost tonight and blew my little scenario for a high tomorrow with a tank job following the Thrice championship on Sunday on 6-13. The Thrice cannot win the title on Sunday; they can only lose it.
I don’t think it matters anyway since afterhours activity isn’t looking so hot for all of the markets.
But it would be nice to see a high for tomorrow anyways.
Yes, EW is only speculation… I must agree with you on that. I don’t trade off of it either as there are too many different possibilities. But I try to guess at the most probable scenario by looking at all the other technicals. So, in this case, I think we could bounce back up to about 1310-1320 before falling back down again.
Will it happen tomorrow, or take next Monday or Tuesday to occur? I don’t know, but once I see the short term charts showing weakness and looking topped, I’ll be looking to short again. Unfortunately, there is NO magic system, so educated guesses will have too do.
Red, I enjoy your videos but the Elliot Wave stuff doesn’t work for me. lol. It seems like too much speculation. How do you know we’re not in a C wave right now instead of a wave 3? It seems like people waste too much time on it. In a few weeks you’ll know what form it took, but right now we are just looking at past data and of course it will seem obvious in retrospect.
I think Elliot Wave is useless for bigger scale projections. It is ONLY useful when you see clearly formed patterns like a 5 wave pattern with proper fibonacci relationships, etc. Even then it is hardly useful.
There might be a few EW “geniuses” out there, but frankly they are few and far between. Even the people from Elliot Wave International, who SHOULD be the geniuses, are regularly wrong.
Here are the things that work in trading, in my opinion. At the end of the day, every trade is about probability. You want an entry and exit with the highest probability of working.
1. Does volume support the trade? Are you exiting a long/shorting into light volume or profit taking patterns? Are you buying/covering into heavy volume near a low?
2. Is there a momentum divergence? Is momentum increasing or decreasing?
3. Are you entering at a support or resistance level? Pretty much no trade will work unless it is taken when a support or resistance level is hit, broken or provides a probably turning point.
4. Are you measuring time to figure out if the instrument is at a cyclical turning point?
All these things give you clear exits and entries, and give you the highest ODDS of winning at some point during the trade, whether you want to scalp or buy and hold. Elliot Wave is completely unnecessary.
I’m not saying I have the holy grail. I just think this is the only common sense approach that works in the long run. Each trade should have a checklist like the one above.
I wouldn’t doubt today’s rally even after the weak close.
Why?
Because retail traders doubted it and bought lots of puts. As a bull, you like to see pessimism on a bounce.
Tomorrow could theoretically dive to a new low. We still haven’t hit the QQQ 54.05 print, but it might take another week or two to get there once the bulls stage a little comeback here.
IYR is confounding me. I see huge volume coming in day after day, yet price is stable. I assume these are buyers but it could be big players liquidating for a deeper dive. We have an IYR print higher up, so I’m more in the bullish interpretation camp.
Very confounding. Today’s rally very weak. It should have been stronger. In an ideal world, it would continue to rally tomorrow and then everything would make sense. But maybe it’s a one day affair and we continue our march to the March lows. Breadth weakened at the end enough so that it won’t damage the McClellan Oscillator too much. I’ll need to see where it stands later in the day.
I can’t really see the trapped longs getting bailed out right now and the Dow got to an important resistance area and up to the 60 rsi level on the 60min chart. The dollar was up with commodities although it appears crude oil pulled back as the day went along.
The Thrice lost tonight and blew my little scenario for a high tomorrow with a tank job following the Thrice championship on Sunday on 6-13. The Thrice cannot win the title on Sunday; they can only lose it.
I don’t think it matters anyway since afterhours activity isn’t looking so hot for all of the markets.
But it would be nice to see a high for tomorrow anyways.
Yes, EW is only speculation… I must agree with you on that. I don’t trade off of it either as there are too many different possibilities. But I try to guess at the most probable scenario by looking at all the other technicals. So, in this case, I think we could bounce back up to about 1310-1320 before falling back down again.
Will it happen tomorrow, or take next Monday or Tuesday to occur? I don’t know, but once I see the short term charts showing weakness and looking topped, I’ll be looking to short again. Unfortunately, there is NO magic system, so educated guesses will have too do.
Red, I enjoy your videos but the Elliot Wave stuff doesn’t work for me. lol. It seems like too much speculation. How do you know we’re not in a C wave right now instead of a wave 3? It seems like people waste too much time on it. In a few weeks you’ll know what form it took, but right now we are just looking at past data and of course it will seem obvious in retrospect.
I think Elliot Wave is useless for bigger scale projections. It is ONLY useful when you see clearly formed patterns like a 5 wave pattern with proper fibonacci relationships, etc. Even then it is hardly useful.
There might be a few EW “geniuses” out there, but frankly they are few and far between. Even the people from Elliot Wave International, who SHOULD be the geniuses, are regularly wrong.
Here are the things that work in trading, in my opinion. At the end of the day, every trade is about probability. You want an entry and exit with the highest probability of working.
1. Does volume support the trade? Are you exiting a long/shorting into light volume or profit taking patterns? Are you buying/covering into heavy volume near a low?
2. Is there a momentum divergence? Is momentum increasing or decreasing?
3. Are you entering at a support or resistance level? Pretty much no trade will work unless it is taken when a support or resistance level is hit, broken or provides a probably turning point.
4. Are you measuring time to figure out if the instrument is at a cyclical turning point?
All these things give you clear exits and entries, and give you the highest ODDS of winning at some point during the trade, whether you want to scalp or buy and hold. Elliot Wave is completely unnecessary.
I’m not saying I have the holy grail. I just think this is the only common sense approach that works in the long run. Each trade should have a checklist like the one above.
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Enjoyed the bounce today….sold into strength of course…leaning towards downside tomorrow maybe significant..:)
I am bearish on XOM. target: approx: 68
i’d be surprised if the spy gets over these levels next couple of days
XOM
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/XOM-6-9AA.jpg
I wouldn’t doubt today’s rally even after the weak close.
Why?
Because retail traders doubted it and bought lots of puts. As a bull, you like to see pessimism on a bounce.
Tomorrow could theoretically dive to a new low. We still haven’t hit the QQQ 54.05 print, but it might take another week or two to get there once the bulls stage a little comeback here.
IYR is confounding me. I see huge volume coming in day after day, yet price is stable. I assume these are buyers but it could be big players liquidating for a deeper dive. We have an IYR print higher up, so I’m more in the bullish interpretation camp.
Very confounding. Today’s rally very weak. It should have been stronger. In an ideal world, it would continue to rally tomorrow and then everything would make sense. But maybe it’s a one day affair and we continue our march to the March lows. Breadth weakened at the end enough so that it won’t damage the McClellan Oscillator too much. I’ll need to see where it stands later in the day.
I can’t really see the trapped longs getting bailed out right now and the Dow got to an important resistance area and up to the 60 rsi level on the 60min chart. The dollar was up with commodities although it appears crude oil pulled back as the day went along.