One more thought: Once commodities skyrocket to a certain level, emerging economies will get crushed. ‘Smart money’ will get withdrawn from those investments and pushed into developed markets as they are better able to withstand the margin pressure.
I.e. Money will flow out of bonds and emerging markets and into commodities and developed markets. This is very much an ‘every man for himself’ scenario.
If there is a FP that corresponds roughly to $SPX 1295 or so, that would be totally in line with my target. I posted a chart in a separate comment, take a look!
In one of his older academic papers, he criticized the Japanese QE efforts because they always included disclaimers and hedges to reassure the bond markets.
He argued strongly that the key to successful reinflation efforts was to convince the entire world + bond market that the agency (in our case now, the Fed) is totally irresponsible and irrational. Once everyone is divorced of any notion that you will protect your own currency, etc. they will take your reinflation efforts far more seriously.
In essence, the markets will go from the assumption that “they can only reinflate until this trendline, so I will short at X level” to “OMG they don’t care! Buy buy buy!” This process was never successfully achieved by the Japanese because more conservative interests would always rein in the QE efforts.
Once the Fed identifies that sentiment has tipped in their favor (last summer was probably that point), they merely need to ‘threaten’ more QE, and the market will be trained to respond accordingly.
The ‘trickle down’ of this paper wealth is only a small increase in spending. However, it might be enough to push the GDP into a +3% zone, which could ultimately become self-sustaining and allow the economy to slowly grow out of the massive debt burden.
hi red,
let’s assume,
Let’s say Ben B. / gov’t knows exactly what he’s doing, and he wants food and commodities to go to extravagant levels and stay there. He wants depressed home prices. He exactly wants high unemployment. etc. What are some of the behind the scenes, reasons for that?
With today’s action, it looks like the stock market has now put in 5 waves up from last week’s low and according to DeMark wave, there should have been 5 waves up from the July low. (haven’t reviewed the paramaters of D-Wave again but the Nov correction definitely made a new 13day low and came close to a 21day low while the Dow definitely did—-I believe 13days is only required—21 days for a change of trend)
2 plus 7 is 9!!! OMG 9-11
evil reptiles!!!
One more thought: Once commodities skyrocket to a certain level, emerging economies will get crushed. ‘Smart money’ will get withdrawn from those investments and pushed into developed markets as they are better able to withstand the margin pressure.
I.e. Money will flow out of bonds and emerging markets and into commodities and developed markets. This is very much an ‘every man for himself’ scenario.
If there is a FP that corresponds roughly to $SPX 1295 or so, that would be totally in line with my target. I posted a chart in a separate comment, take a look!
In one of his older academic papers, he criticized the Japanese QE efforts because they always included disclaimers and hedges to reassure the bond markets.
He argued strongly that the key to successful reinflation efforts was to convince the entire world + bond market that the agency (in our case now, the Fed) is totally irresponsible and irrational. Once everyone is divorced of any notion that you will protect your own currency, etc. they will take your reinflation efforts far more seriously.
In essence, the markets will go from the assumption that “they can only reinflate until this trendline, so I will short at X level” to “OMG they don’t care! Buy buy buy!” This process was never successfully achieved by the Japanese because more conservative interests would always rein in the QE efforts.
Once the Fed identifies that sentiment has tipped in their favor (last summer was probably that point), they merely need to ‘threaten’ more QE, and the market will be trained to respond accordingly.
The ‘trickle down’ of this paper wealth is only a small increase in spending. However, it might be enough to push the GDP into a +3% zone, which could ultimately become self-sustaining and allow the economy to slowly grow out of the massive debt burden.
My prediction for next week:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folders/Default/media/14a1ceec-bda2-46f8-bb04-b760b68bba8e
hi red,
let’s assume,
Let’s say Ben B. / gov’t knows exactly what he’s doing, and he wants food and commodities to go to extravagant levels and stay there. He wants depressed home prices. He exactly wants high unemployment. etc. What are some of the behind the scenes, reasons for that?
LOL… yeah, those guys too I guess! Let’s include Donald in that group as well.
Trump tower casino employees?
Today is 111 trading days from the August low.
With today’s action, it looks like the stock market has now put in 5 waves up from last week’s low and according to DeMark wave, there should have been 5 waves up from the July low. (haven’t reviewed the paramaters of D-Wave again but the Nov correction definitely made a new 13day low and came close to a 21day low while the Dow definitely did—-I believe 13days is only required—21 days for a change of trend)