Remember the old saying about the low being put in the Thursday or Friday the week prior to option expiration week (which is next week)… therefore I believe we’ll have a low put in by the end of this week. I suspect it will be close to 1800 (give or take 10 points). Then a choppy rally until the next ritual date of the 22nd, followed by another (bigger) leg down.
First 8-7 seed matchup in NCAA basketball final history tonight. The Kentucky 1 and Doners vs. Connecticut….don’t see a lot there especially with U Conn but the 1 and Doners were the first team to advance to the Final 4 with 5 starting freshman since the Michigan Fab Five back in ’93. And Kentucky beat Michigan to get into the Final 4 this year in another interesting twist. The last overt link to 1987, the Florida Gators led by Billy the Kid Donovan of ’87 Providence fame got bounced out of the tournament Saturday by the 1 and Doners.
Put in a lower low then this morning so we still haven’t started any bounce yet it seems. I get the feeling it will be sharp and quick Tuesday morning but fad later in the day. Then we should break this current support range of 1850 and head toward 1800 later in the week. That area should hold and allow a choppy rally up until the 22nd.
Certainly looks like the low is in for now. While we could see one more smaller wave down sometime today (probably a small wave 2 with the move up from the low this morning being a small wave 1 up) I’d expect bounce on “Turn-around Tuesday” to happen.
Is the low in from this sell off? I think “not”, as this first bounce will very likely be shorted and we should see a move down again later this week. My target low is that 1800 area (to complete a 5 wave pattern from the high last Friday) to make this first larger wave 1 down and hold the weekly support from the rising trendline starting at 1074 in 2011.
Then from that 1800 area I’d expect a very choppy larger wave 2 up that should last a couple of weeks to shake out both bulls and bears. In fact it’s looking like it “could” actually last all the way until the 22nd, which is my preferred “next top” date. Then a larger wave 3 down should start that I could see dropping as low as 1680 or so.
This top today of 1897.28 could be the top as it’s just under the 1900 level that I thought we’d go up to and end the rally. If so, then I’d expect this to start the first wave 1 down and then the wave 2 up should go into either the 11th or 22nd, followed by a nasty wave 3 down.
However, this market could go down to 1800 area and still be in a bullish trend on the weekly chart. So if we go down to that level and hold then that could be all we’ll get on the downside for awhile.
Looking at the charts this wave 1 down could go to the 1850 area and then bounce back up for wave 2, which could be a brief bounce of only 38.2% or something… or a hard “fake out” squeeze to almost another new high. Hard too say which one?
I don’t think there is any positive news out there between now any the 30th when the FED’s are expected to cut another round of stimulus out of the market, so that certainly not something the market will like. Therefore the rally back up could be short.
Since the market always trades in advance (like the old saying “buy the rumor, sell the news” and “sell the rumor, buy the news”) we could also bottom on the 22nd, chop around some with a wave 1 up and wave 2 down just prior to the FED’s meeting on the 30th and then rally in a wave 3 up on the announcement.
Most retail traders will be shorting then as they expect the FED’s to cut again, which they likely will… but SkyNet (the super computer running the market) knows that and will likely squeeze those shorts in a rally on the bad news.
Therefore, we must anticipate that and look for a bottom in that time zone. Of course if we bottom around 1800 on the 11th for example and then rally into the 22nd then I’d expect the next move down to break the weekly support from 2011 (starting at 1074 and currently at 1800), which implies a much larger drop with the high 1600 area as the next target.
But for now I think it’s safe to short the bounces until 1800 area and then re-check again to see what the charts look like and what day it is, as the time frame for this to happen seems likely for the period between now and the coming FOMC meeting on the 29th/30th of this month.
What I’d suspect then Permabear is to start the selling at some point in April and then bottom into May where the “sell in May and go away” slogan will be pump all over the MSM news outlets… but it won’t crash and will instead start the final Primary Wave 5 up that should last into 2015 on the short side and 2016 on the long side.
Naturally this coming correction will then be labeled Primary Wave 4 down as we are still in Primary Wave 3 up from the 1074 low in 2011. How long will Primary 5 up last? Don’t know? But I really REALLY think we MUST have some major crazy new high (DOW 30,000?) before we finally top out.
Could it do it by January 2015 when Lindsey Williams says the Obamacare plan goes into effect for all companies and people, (whereas now it’s apparently not in “mandatory” effect for companies), I guess it’s possible.
But we all know how they like to go to extremes on the market, which tells me something will come up and delay it another year and we’ll see the real top in 2016. Note that 2+0+1+6=9, which is completion… just more food for thought.
Remember the old saying about the low being put in the Thursday or Friday the week prior to option expiration week (which is next week)… therefore I believe we’ll have a low put in by the end of this week. I suspect it will be close to 1800 (give or take 10 points). Then a choppy rally until the next ritual date of the 22nd, followed by another (bigger) leg down.
Bank of America testing support levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/bank-of-america-testing-support-levels.html
Well, UConn’s coach has an interesting bit of numerology. He was born on 12-27-72.
First 8-7 seed matchup in NCAA basketball final history tonight. The Kentucky 1 and Doners vs. Connecticut….don’t see a lot there especially with U Conn but the 1 and Doners were the first team to advance to the Final 4 with 5 starting freshman since the Michigan Fab Five back in ’93. And Kentucky beat Michigan to get into the Final 4 this year in another interesting twist. The last overt link to 1987, the Florida Gators led by Billy the Kid Donovan of ’87 Providence fame got bounced out of the tournament Saturday by the 1 and Doners.
Put in a lower low then this morning so we still haven’t started any bounce yet it seems. I get the feeling it will be sharp and quick Tuesday morning but fad later in the day. Then we should break this current support range of 1850 and head toward 1800 later in the week. That area should hold and allow a choppy rally up until the 22nd.
Certainly looks like the low is in for now. While we could see one more smaller wave down sometime today (probably a small wave 2 with the move up from the low this morning being a small wave 1 up) I’d expect bounce on “Turn-around Tuesday” to happen.
Is the low in from this sell off? I think “not”, as this first bounce will very likely be shorted and we should see a move down again later this week. My target low is that 1800 area (to complete a 5 wave pattern from the high last Friday) to make this first larger wave 1 down and hold the weekly support from the rising trendline starting at 1074 in 2011.
Then from that 1800 area I’d expect a very choppy larger wave 2 up that should last a couple of weeks to shake out both bulls and bears. In fact it’s looking like it “could” actually last all the way until the 22nd, which is my preferred “next top” date. Then a larger wave 3 down should start that I could see dropping as low as 1680 or so.
SPY Update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/spy-weekend-update.html
FACEBOOK Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/04/facebook-weekend-update.html
This top today of 1897.28 could be the top as it’s just under the 1900 level that I thought we’d go up to and end the rally. If so, then I’d expect this to start the first wave 1 down and then the wave 2 up should go into either the 11th or 22nd, followed by a nasty wave 3 down.
However, this market could go down to 1800 area and still be in a bullish trend on the weekly chart. So if we go down to that level and hold then that could be all we’ll get on the downside for awhile.
Looking at the charts this wave 1 down could go to the 1850 area and then bounce back up for wave 2, which could be a brief bounce of only 38.2% or something… or a hard “fake out” squeeze to almost another new high. Hard too say which one?
I don’t think there is any positive news out there between now any the 30th when the FED’s are expected to cut another round of stimulus out of the market, so that certainly not something the market will like. Therefore the rally back up could be short.
Since the market always trades in advance (like the old saying “buy the rumor, sell the news” and “sell the rumor, buy the news”) we could also bottom on the 22nd, chop around some with a wave 1 up and wave 2 down just prior to the FED’s meeting on the 30th and then rally in a wave 3 up on the announcement.
Most retail traders will be shorting then as they expect the FED’s to cut again, which they likely will… but SkyNet (the super computer running the market) knows that and will likely squeeze those shorts in a rally on the bad news.
Therefore, we must anticipate that and look for a bottom in that time zone. Of course if we bottom around 1800 on the 11th for example and then rally into the 22nd then I’d expect the next move down to break the weekly support from 2011 (starting at 1074 and currently at 1800), which implies a much larger drop with the high 1600 area as the next target.
But for now I think it’s safe to short the bounces until 1800 area and then re-check again to see what the charts look like and what day it is, as the time frame for this to happen seems likely for the period between now and the coming FOMC meeting on the 29th/30th of this month.
http://screencast.com/t/kYKrcJhGTX
What I’d suspect then Permabear is to start the selling at some point in April and then bottom into May where the “sell in May and go away” slogan will be pump all over the MSM news outlets… but it won’t crash and will instead start the final Primary Wave 5 up that should last into 2015 on the short side and 2016 on the long side.
Naturally this coming correction will then be labeled Primary Wave 4 down as we are still in Primary Wave 3 up from the 1074 low in 2011. How long will Primary 5 up last? Don’t know? But I really REALLY think we MUST have some major crazy new high (DOW 30,000?) before we finally top out.
Could it do it by January 2015 when Lindsey Williams says the Obamacare plan goes into effect for all companies and people, (whereas now it’s apparently not in “mandatory” effect for companies), I guess it’s possible.
But we all know how they like to go to extremes on the market, which tells me something will come up and delay it another year and we’ll see the real top in 2016. Note that 2+0+1+6=9, which is completion… just more food for thought.