Possibly we chop it up until Monday from the looks of it. With Quadruple Witching this Friday for OPEX I’m not expecting a big move either way. Then they should hammer out a clear trend (down of course) starting next week, with even a ‘possible’ gap down on Monday?
The problem is that we have the daily chart wanting to go back up on from oversold stochastic but the MACD’s are overbought. The histogram bars are in oversold conditions pointing up.
The shorter term charts are in a similar fashion. This makes for a choppy market with moves up and down for awhile longer before going down for a big move. So I wouldn’t take a big position either way just yet. Great for day traders though, but looking for a multi-day swing move isn’t something I see here yet.
I’m not 100% convinced that there’s still not some higher high yet to come before we drop hard. But, I’m also not convinced that we have started the big move down already. My best guess is that we won’t see a clear direction until next week. I think we need 3-6 more days for the daily chart to get overbought and ready to drop. Hopefully the weekly chart will also be ready to break the support line.
Huge move up in the dollar today and I see no one mentioning it. The TD count finally worked with it. I believe it got to the exhaustion 21 point on the doji day on Monday. That’s probably the most bearish confirming indicator. First crude oil topped in a similar pattern, more recently gold, and now in reverse the dollar, or the euro in the topping manner. Dollar also finished above its 20 day average/mid bollinger band line. SP at its intraday low took out its last 15+ something hourly candles…basically every candle for the week except the opening monday candle.
A certain component of a certain little indicator went negative today after bouncing into positive territory yesterday but the indicator is still in deeply positive territory, generally not an area for a crash but let’s see what transpires.
hey red, well, we held the line of 1875..and we’re on the way.
I would say weekly support is the lower weekly bol’, that is currently 1760…not too far away from the Feb’ low of 1737.. a mere 1.3% higher.
Were we to hit 1760/50..I’d be open to a bigger HS formation that opens up 1625/1575 in a few months.
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At that point, would you not think Yellen will reverse, and increase QE?
Pretty nasty move down after the FOMC minutes today. Chart wise, we should continue this down move and not put in another higher high. Of course there is the manipulation factor to remember.. meaning they could ignore the charts and rally up and not break the 1839.57 low recently.
But if the allow the charts to play out that low should break and we should be heading down toward the 1810-1815 area, followed by the 1790 area where the weekly support current is at. As long as it holds the bull market is still intact as I shown in the video.
This move hasn’t played out exactly as I thought it would as I really expected a bottom into the FOMC meeting, not a top. But the overall picture remains the same. That 1790-1800 zone where the weekly rising support line is at (from 1074 SPX back in October 2012) is the target.
Once it’s hit we should expect a bounce from it. Then we’ll see if it will just be another lower high or a higher high. It’s too early too tell right now but I’m leaning toward a lower high currently based on what I see in the charts.
Well, they rallied the market into the Fed meeting. It did seem suspicious when news of the drone being brought down by the Russians was released just a bit before the market close on Friday. Google, $ndx, and copper were looking precarious as all were making new month lows and below their lower BBs. The last two days have alleviated those conditions. Anyway, there needed to be an intervening bounce before the next Pi date.
Now a 700 year anniversary is upon us and will the Fed commemorate it with its next release. The dollar so far has bottomed as of Thursday with a retest of the low on Friday and doji days this week. It seems to be waiting for the Fed release. Meanwhile, gold and TLT seemed toppy on Friday and appeared to be indicating that crisis in the Crimea would be waning.
Well the Russians did fire an ICBM on Mardi Gras per the Clooney 1987 Gravity reference and then took down a drone last Friday. (In Gravity, they shoot down their own satellite setting in motion the disastrous chain of events in the film). It’s interesting to note the director of Gravity ended up writing and directing a pilot that appeared last week on US TV which was rather uninteresting but it also had a JJ Abrams connection(producer) who coincidentally was the famed producer of Lost. I never watched Lost but I ended up checking out the Flight 815 crash episode on youtube and suddenly noticed the similarities to the transpiring Malaysian Airlines episode. The 111 of the airliners debris in the sky followed by 11 in the next shot (in the form of an inverted V) seems to be indicating a sign of the end times for now. 111=31….11=21 or (7x7x7) or 777….ie Flight 370 ….BA 777…. BAs stock is getting a little heavy….down again today.
At the rate we are moving up it’s certainly looking like they are going to be at a “high” when the FOMC minutes are released this Wednesday and not a “low” as previously thought. However, I would not short it as history shows that a good 80%+ of FOMC days are bullish.
So, chances are that we’ll make a double top, slightly lower top, or pierce through to hit the 1900-1910 area before this rally turns back down. It should happen between this Wednesday the 19th and Friday the 21st.
Possibly we chop it up until Monday from the looks of it. With Quadruple Witching this Friday for OPEX I’m not expecting a big move either way. Then they should hammer out a clear trend (down of course) starting next week, with even a ‘possible’ gap down on Monday?
The weekly chart flashed a provisional warning last week.
We’ve already broken back <1858 again…which is the SECOND weekly warning.
Now, bears need 1875…bulls should be increasingly concerned.
The problem is that we have the daily chart wanting to go back up on from oversold stochastic but the MACD’s are overbought. The histogram bars are in oversold conditions pointing up.
The shorter term charts are in a similar fashion. This makes for a choppy market with moves up and down for awhile longer before going down for a big move. So I wouldn’t take a big position either way just yet. Great for day traders though, but looking for a multi-day swing move isn’t something I see here yet.
I’m not 100% convinced that there’s still not some higher high yet to come before we drop hard. But, I’m also not convinced that we have started the big move down already. My best guess is that we won’t see a clear direction until next week. I think we need 3-6 more days for the daily chart to get overbought and ready to drop. Hopefully the weekly chart will also be ready to break the support line.
Huge move up in the dollar today and I see no one mentioning it. The TD count finally worked with it. I believe it got to the exhaustion 21 point on the doji day on Monday. That’s probably the most bearish confirming indicator. First crude oil topped in a similar pattern, more recently gold, and now in reverse the dollar, or the euro in the topping manner. Dollar also finished above its 20 day average/mid bollinger band line. SP at its intraday low took out its last 15+ something hourly candles…basically every candle for the week except the opening monday candle.
A certain component of a certain little indicator went negative today after bouncing into positive territory yesterday but the indicator is still in deeply positive territory, generally not an area for a crash but let’s see what transpires.
hey red, well, we held the line of 1875..and we’re on the way.
I would say weekly support is the lower weekly bol’, that is currently 1760…not too far away from the Feb’ low of 1737.. a mere 1.3% higher.
Were we to hit 1760/50..I’d be open to a bigger HS formation that opens up 1625/1575 in a few months.
–
At that point, would you not think Yellen will reverse, and increase QE?
Gold chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/03/gold-engulfing-pattern.html
Pretty nasty move down after the FOMC minutes today. Chart wise, we should continue this down move and not put in another higher high. Of course there is the manipulation factor to remember.. meaning they could ignore the charts and rally up and not break the 1839.57 low recently.
But if the allow the charts to play out that low should break and we should be heading down toward the 1810-1815 area, followed by the 1790 area where the weekly support current is at. As long as it holds the bull market is still intact as I shown in the video.
This move hasn’t played out exactly as I thought it would as I really expected a bottom into the FOMC meeting, not a top. But the overall picture remains the same. That 1790-1800 zone where the weekly rising support line is at (from 1074 SPX back in October 2012) is the target.
Once it’s hit we should expect a bounce from it. Then we’ll see if it will just be another lower high or a higher high. It’s too early too tell right now but I’m leaning toward a lower high currently based on what I see in the charts.
SILVER Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/03/silver-chart-analysis_19.html
Well, they rallied the market into the Fed meeting. It did seem suspicious when news of the drone being brought down by the Russians was released just a bit before the market close on Friday. Google, $ndx, and copper were looking precarious as all were making new month lows and below their lower BBs. The last two days have alleviated those conditions. Anyway, there needed to be an intervening bounce before the next Pi date.
Now a 700 year anniversary is upon us and will the Fed commemorate it with its next release. The dollar so far has bottomed as of Thursday with a retest of the low on Friday and doji days this week. It seems to be waiting for the Fed release. Meanwhile, gold and TLT seemed toppy on Friday and appeared to be indicating that crisis in the Crimea would be waning.
Well the Russians did fire an ICBM on Mardi Gras per the Clooney 1987 Gravity reference and then took down a drone last Friday. (In Gravity, they shoot down their own satellite setting in motion the disastrous chain of events in the film). It’s interesting to note the director of Gravity ended up writing and directing a pilot that appeared last week on US TV which was rather uninteresting but it also had a JJ Abrams connection(producer) who coincidentally was the famed producer of Lost. I never watched Lost but I ended up checking out the Flight 815 crash episode on youtube and suddenly noticed the similarities to the transpiring Malaysian Airlines episode. The 111 of the airliners debris in the sky followed by 11 in the next shot (in the form of an inverted V) seems to be indicating a sign of the end times for now. 111=31….11=21 or (7x7x7) or 777….ie Flight 370 ….BA 777…. BAs stock is getting a little heavy….down again today.
At the rate we are moving up it’s certainly looking like they are going to be at a “high” when the FOMC minutes are released this Wednesday and not a “low” as previously thought. However, I would not short it as history shows that a good 80%+ of FOMC days are bullish.
So, chances are that we’ll make a double top, slightly lower top, or pierce through to hit the 1900-1910 area before this rally turns back down. It should happen between this Wednesday the 19th and Friday the 21st.