Today is 28 Trading Days Later from the SP mid January closing high, an important td turning point seen in some of the historical market epochs. Dow is still following the double ninen episode structurally but has deviated in the timeline. It popped up to its early January lows which have since provided resistance over the last few days.
It looks like JAZZ and the biotech sector got things started today to the downside.
I’m kinda expecting this chop to last another week as they frustrate both the bulls and the bears. I could look similar to the month of July 2013 when the stayed in the 1700 area for several weeks and then popup up to 1709 to clear out overhead stops.
Then they fell back down to the 1700 area chop zone and stayed another week before dropping for a 5.7% correction. This time we are looking for larger correction so the final exhaustion move up should be in the 20 to 30 point range over the current 1850 chop zone.
It could look more like the May 22nd move up with put in the long topping tail and then quickly dropped to start a 7.5% correction. The main difference between that period and the July period is how high they went with the exhaustion move up and how quick they fell.
My minimum exhaustion move up area is 1870 zone and maximum is 1890 zone, and I’m expecting it to happen in the first week of March or the second week… possibly another “11” day like March the 11th or the 10th as they are both 11’s. However, the 11th is a double eleven and the 10th is only a single eleven.
That May 22nd date was a double eleven and produced the exhaustion move up, so I’m leaning toward March 11th which March 10th my second guess. This means we should chop around all next week teasing the bears and the bulls. We should see any major breakdown or breakthrough.
Of course if we rally up to the 1870 or 1890 area before either of those dates then I’d re-evaluate the charts at that point. If it does come early I’d still be looking for a nice long topping tail to form on the daily chart candle pattern like the one we see on May 22nd of 2013.
My theory is that the deep the correction the more likely to have a bigger “exhaustion” move up on the last day to clear out every last bear that put stops above the 1850 zone. This recent pop up to 1858 doesn’t seem to me high enough in my opinion.
Then there is the fact that the MACD’s were up in the 20-25 area at the May 22nd high and the July high showed a reading of 15-20 before it topped and rolled over. Right now we are in the 5-10 range on the MACD’s on the daily chart and need about one more week to let them go up higher into the same range as those 2 prior highs.
Naturally it won’t be exactly the same as either prior date but we should still look for choppy action with fakeout moves up and down until the final flushout move up happens.
Today is 28 Trading Days Later from the SP mid January closing high, an important td turning point seen in some of the historical market epochs. Dow is still following the double ninen episode structurally but has deviated in the timeline. It popped up to its early January lows which have since provided resistance over the last few days.
It looks like JAZZ and the biotech sector got things started today to the downside.
QQQ Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/02/qqq-analysis-after-closing-bell.html
SILVER Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/02/silver-reacting-from-weekly-resistance.html
I’m kinda expecting this chop to last another week as they frustrate both the bulls and the bears. I could look similar to the month of July 2013 when the stayed in the 1700 area for several weeks and then popup up to 1709 to clear out overhead stops.
Then they fell back down to the 1700 area chop zone and stayed another week before dropping for a 5.7% correction. This time we are looking for larger correction so the final exhaustion move up should be in the 20 to 30 point range over the current 1850 chop zone.
It could look more like the May 22nd move up with put in the long topping tail and then quickly dropped to start a 7.5% correction. The main difference between that period and the July period is how high they went with the exhaustion move up and how quick they fell.
My minimum exhaustion move up area is 1870 zone and maximum is 1890 zone, and I’m expecting it to happen in the first week of March or the second week… possibly another “11” day like March the 11th or the 10th as they are both 11’s. However, the 11th is a double eleven and the 10th is only a single eleven.
That May 22nd date was a double eleven and produced the exhaustion move up, so I’m leaning toward March 11th which March 10th my second guess. This means we should chop around all next week teasing the bears and the bulls. We should see any major breakdown or breakthrough.
Of course if we rally up to the 1870 or 1890 area before either of those dates then I’d re-evaluate the charts at that point. If it does come early I’d still be looking for a nice long topping tail to form on the daily chart candle pattern like the one we see on May 22nd of 2013.
My theory is that the deep the correction the more likely to have a bigger “exhaustion” move up on the last day to clear out every last bear that put stops above the 1850 zone. This recent pop up to 1858 doesn’t seem to me high enough in my opinion.
Then there is the fact that the MACD’s were up in the 20-25 area at the May 22nd high and the July high showed a reading of 15-20 before it topped and rolled over. Right now we are in the 5-10 range on the MACD’s on the daily chart and need about one more week to let them go up higher into the same range as those 2 prior highs.
Naturally it won’t be exactly the same as either prior date but we should still look for choppy action with fakeout moves up and down until the final flushout move up happens.
cant you just speak plain English. Up or Down.
86,799 days later…..It’s got the True GRit number in there……GRavity……A number with GRAvitas…….7976 days from the Bradley date.
Tomorrow is 237years 237 days from you know when…………REDRUM!!!!!
The Nasdaq tried to break out above 4290 but it failed. I am expecting a 3-5% down. Same for the SnP failed to break 1850 for a close.
Blackberry Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/02/blackberry-analysis-after-closing-bell.html
Groupon weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/02/groupon-analysis-after-closing-bell.html