I’m going to low my upside target bounce to around the 1770-1780 area as we’ve yet to find a short term bottom and bounce. Based on what I’m now see I’m expecting the rally to start tomorrow or Friday, but it should only be a small choppy A wave up and B wave down (to put in a higher low).
Then the C wave up should happen Monday and end Tuesday morning somewhere in the 1770-1780 SPX zone. Therefore I believe Tuesday the 11th will be the top of a very short lived wave 2 up with the entire move from 1850 down to the current low being the wave 1 down.
If so, then Tuesday should be the best spot to short before the crash wave 3 down starts. I guess it could start this Friday the 7th but there is usually one quick wave up to shake out a few bears and get some bulls long. It should be fast and up hard, but end just as quickly.
Possibly Obama says something positive over the weekend to spark this strong bounce? Since a lot of bears will hold their shorts over the weekend I’d think there would be head fake move up before the crash. I’m counting today’s move down as a smaller 5th wave down inside a medium 5th wave down (that started at the 1798 high), inside a larger wave 1 down from the 1850 high.
The downside target is the 1725-1730 area to end this final smaller 5th wave down, and medium 5th wave down and larger wave 1 down. So, the entire wave 1 should end in that zone and allow for a larger wave 2 up.
This larger wave 2 up really shouldn’t last more then 2-3 days even though the larger wave 1 down lasted over 3 weeks. If we were still in a bullish phase then the wave 2 up could last over a week, but since we are in a bearish phase now any rally will be shorted hard.
This coming crash wave is going to scare a lot of people and I’m sure I’ll be one of them. I just have to keep focused and remember that my downside target low should hit in about 3 weeks, which is around the end of February. So by the 28th I’d look to sell. My target is around 1500 area on the SPX.
I’m thinking now that based on the charts we should rally into mid to late next week. This implies that we almost (or are?) finished with the first larger Wave 1 down from the 1850 high and will soon be starting the larger Wave 2 up.
Since the Wave 1 down took about 3 weeks we should have around one week up for the Wave 2… which should be choppy and look like some type of ABC pattern when finished. This pushes out the 7th as a likely top and moves it to next week sometime.
If this is correct they must squeeze out the bears in this wave 2 up and that means they must go above 1800 SPX. I don’t know how high or what date we will top but next week is the more likely time period to try to get short before the larger Wave 3 down starts.
Of course is all off the table if we make a new high above 1850, but from a technical stand point the damage that has been done doesn’t support that theory. Whatever the upside target is next week I think it’s a HUGE shorting opportunity.
I’m actually praying this doesn’t happen but it’s really looking bad on the charts right now. And with the Fed pulling out money from the market twice since late last year it doesn’t look like this one is going to be another “Bear Fake-out” like in the past.
We have been given the “approximate” date and road map so we really must take this one very serious this time. Past Legatus meeting have had “turns” in the market either during the meeting or shortly after the meeting. This time I think it will be shortly after the meeting as that makes more sense with the charts.
Throw in the fact that the free money supply of $85 Billion has been reduced to $65 Billion with the last two $10 Billion Dollar cuts and it all spells disaster!
It’s pretty simple here now… either we rally into this coming Friday the 7th and put in a lower high around 1810 area or we continue down in the 7th and put in a bottom. If we continue down then the Legatus meeting will be a turn to the upside with a new rally starting which should continue into July.
If we start climbing back up tomorrow and tag 1810 area then that would setup a massive wave C down starting next Monday and continuing for 3 weeks or more. I don’t know which one is going to happen as today went deeper then I expected. It’s a toss of a coin at this point.
It was mentioned a few days ago that Seattle with the NFL’s top ranked defense finished first in scoring defense, turnvovers/(margin), and yardage allowed, the first team to do it since the 1985 champion Chicago Bears, widely considered the top defense of all time and a team that crushed the AFC champion in the Superbowl. The next year another team with a smothering defense the New York Giants pummeled the Broncos in the 1987 SB.
And here’s how some of the similarities to this season compare to the season leading up to the 87 and 88 SBs. Denver, the AFC champion feasted on teams from the inferior AFC and the NFC LEAST. Seattle slugged its way through the much superior NFC and materialized as the NFC champion. They played in a division that featured 3 teams with a winning record and a fourth one that finished 7-9.
Denver had a similar bend but dont break style defense to its 80s counterpart. They gave up 24 pts a game during the season that was masked by Denver’s high octane offense. They dropped that total to 17 pts in the playoffs but they played some weak playoff teams and those games were at home. The Patriots in particular had a very depleted squad with their best offensive and defensive players already out for the season. The Denver squad of 86-87 did lead the AFC in scoring points allowed but no one compared them to the Bears, Giants juggernaut squads of the time.
This year’s Seattle squad also had a ridiculous low yards per pass attempt allowed which is probably the most vital defensive statistic in this pass happy era. It doesn’t help that their DBs are so jacked up that they’re like linebackers roaming around in the secondary and they play an aggressive bump and run type coverage that they almost dare the refs to throw flags. But considering there have been only 7 pass interference calls made in the playoffs, their aggressive tendency doesn’t seem to be in any jeopardy from the refs.
Bill Polian mentioned 5 metrics for a SB champion that favored the Seahawks over the Broncos.
Among them were rushing attempts on the season, turnover margin, and ypa allowed (mentioned above but that might have been a 6th metric).
And historically the team with the NFL top ranked defense in the SB has generally won the SB.
This was the case in the 1990 SB when the top ranked defense of the Giants squared up against the high octane offense of the Buffalo Bills and defeated the Bills 15-13. The Bills were coming off putting 50 pts in the AFC championship game and 40 pts a week earlier.
I’m going to low my upside target bounce to around the 1770-1780 area as we’ve yet to find a short term bottom and bounce. Based on what I’m now see I’m expecting the rally to start tomorrow or Friday, but it should only be a small choppy A wave up and B wave down (to put in a higher low).
Then the C wave up should happen Monday and end Tuesday morning somewhere in the 1770-1780 SPX zone. Therefore I believe Tuesday the 11th will be the top of a very short lived wave 2 up with the entire move from 1850 down to the current low being the wave 1 down.
If so, then Tuesday should be the best spot to short before the crash wave 3 down starts. I guess it could start this Friday the 7th but there is usually one quick wave up to shake out a few bears and get some bulls long. It should be fast and up hard, but end just as quickly.
Possibly Obama says something positive over the weekend to spark this strong bounce? Since a lot of bears will hold their shorts over the weekend I’d think there would be head fake move up before the crash. I’m counting today’s move down as a smaller 5th wave down inside a medium 5th wave down (that started at the 1798 high), inside a larger wave 1 down from the 1850 high.
The downside target is the 1725-1730 area to end this final smaller 5th wave down, and medium 5th wave down and larger wave 1 down. So, the entire wave 1 should end in that zone and allow for a larger wave 2 up.
This larger wave 2 up really shouldn’t last more then 2-3 days even though the larger wave 1 down lasted over 3 weeks. If we were still in a bullish phase then the wave 2 up could last over a week, but since we are in a bearish phase now any rally will be shorted hard.
This coming crash wave is going to scare a lot of people and I’m sure I’ll be one of them. I just have to keep focused and remember that my downside target low should hit in about 3 weeks, which is around the end of February. So by the 28th I’d look to sell. My target is around 1500 area on the SPX.
I’m thinking now that based on the charts we should rally into mid to late next week. This implies that we almost (or are?) finished with the first larger Wave 1 down from the 1850 high and will soon be starting the larger Wave 2 up.
Since the Wave 1 down took about 3 weeks we should have around one week up for the Wave 2… which should be choppy and look like some type of ABC pattern when finished. This pushes out the 7th as a likely top and moves it to next week sometime.
If this is correct they must squeeze out the bears in this wave 2 up and that means they must go above 1800 SPX. I don’t know how high or what date we will top but next week is the more likely time period to try to get short before the larger Wave 3 down starts.
Of course is all off the table if we make a new high above 1850, but from a technical stand point the damage that has been done doesn’t support that theory. Whatever the upside target is next week I think it’s a HUGE shorting opportunity.
I’m actually praying this doesn’t happen but it’s really looking bad on the charts right now. And with the Fed pulling out money from the market twice since late last year it doesn’t look like this one is going to be another “Bear Fake-out” like in the past.
We have been given the “approximate” date and road map so we really must take this one very serious this time. Past Legatus meeting have had “turns” in the market either during the meeting or shortly after the meeting. This time I think it will be shortly after the meeting as that makes more sense with the charts.
Throw in the fact that the free money supply of $85 Billion has been reduced to $65 Billion with the last two $10 Billion Dollar cuts and it all spells disaster!
SPY Analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/02/spy-analysis-before-opening-bell.html
It’s pretty simple here now… either we rally into this coming Friday the 7th and put in a lower high around 1810 area or we continue down in the 7th and put in a bottom. If we continue down then the Legatus meeting will be a turn to the upside with a new rally starting which should continue into July.
If we start climbing back up tomorrow and tag 1810 area then that would setup a massive wave C down starting next Monday and continuing for 3 weeks or more. I don’t know which one is going to happen as today went deeper then I expected. It’s a toss of a coin at this point.
Dow Jones chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/02/dow-jones-testing-200-day-sma.html
Illuminati messages in halftime show http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=v6lP7RJ6ORU
So much for that new “sports” contact. He was dead wrong on that call. Good thing I don’t bet on the games.
A great video about the power of GOD… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAxGTZNVd80
I It’s going to be a case where Popgun’s NFL worst arm is going to be brought back to reality.
It was mentioned a few days ago that Seattle with the NFL’s top ranked defense finished first in scoring defense, turnvovers/(margin), and yardage allowed, the first team to do it since the 1985 champion Chicago Bears, widely considered the top defense of all time and a team that crushed the AFC champion in the Superbowl. The next year another team with a smothering defense the New York Giants pummeled the Broncos in the 1987 SB.
And here’s how some of the similarities to this season compare to the season leading up to the 87 and 88 SBs. Denver, the AFC champion feasted on teams from the inferior AFC and the NFC LEAST. Seattle slugged its way through the much superior NFC and materialized as the NFC champion. They played in a division that featured 3 teams with a winning record and a fourth one that finished 7-9.
Denver had a similar bend but dont break style defense to its 80s counterpart. They gave up 24 pts a game during the season that was masked by Denver’s high octane offense. They dropped that total to 17 pts in the playoffs but they played some weak playoff teams and those games were at home. The Patriots in particular had a very depleted squad with their best offensive and defensive players already out for the season. The Denver squad of 86-87 did lead the AFC in scoring points allowed but no one compared them to the Bears, Giants juggernaut squads of the time.
This year’s Seattle squad also had a ridiculous low yards per pass attempt allowed which is probably the most vital defensive statistic in this pass happy era. It doesn’t help that their DBs are so jacked up that they’re like linebackers roaming around in the secondary and they play an aggressive bump and run type coverage that they almost dare the refs to throw flags. But considering there have been only 7 pass interference calls made in the playoffs, their aggressive tendency doesn’t seem to be in any jeopardy from the refs.
Bill Polian mentioned 5 metrics for a SB champion that favored the Seahawks over the Broncos.
Among them were rushing attempts on the season, turnover margin, and ypa allowed (mentioned above but that might have been a 6th metric).
And historically the team with the NFL top ranked defense in the SB has generally won the SB.
This was the case in the 1990 SB when the top ranked defense of the Giants squared up against the high octane offense of the Buffalo Bills and defeated the Bills 15-13. The Bills were coming off putting 50 pts in the AFC championship game and 40 pts a week earlier.