Let me also add that while I think “long” is the way to go right now I’d still exit around 1810 area to re-evaluate the charts again. I’m still not sure on this 5th wave down scenario? If completed then we rally for awhile… and by that I mean a week probably.
If the 5th wave down isn’t finished then we should drop one more time from the 1810 area of resistance. This time it should break the current low of 1772 SPX and possibly hit 1750 area as previously suggested.
This is a tricky area right now but I do believe they will rally up from the FOMC meeting. The question will be… “will it hold”? That I can’t answer yet. I will say that there is NO positive divergence yet in the short term charts. This implies another lower low yet to come… and then a rally all of next week.
Long is the way to go! Looks like we came close to our 1810 SPX area after the bell yesterday as the futures soared up to 1800. Then this morning they dumped them and put in a higher low of 1768.50 ES. Clearly they didn’t want the bears to short at 1810 SPX area so they did the move overnight when they couldn’t take a position.
I was expecting an A wave up from the 1772.95 SPX low a few days ago to hit the 1810 area, and the a larger wave 5 down to break that low. This current move up from 1772.95 looks like a wave 4 up and inside it we have a 3 or 5 wave pattern. The A wave up started yesterday and I think we are in the B wave down this morning.
That leaves a C wave up to complete the larger wave 4 up, which I now suspect they will do after the FOMC meeting. Too many people are now expecting a big dump after Bernanke speaks so I’m thinking they will fool us all again and actually rally it up afterwards.
So, at this point I think long is the way to go until that 1810 area is reached. Then we’ll see if that appears to be the end of the wave 4 up or if it gets extended into a 5 wave pattern instead of a 3 wave pattern. If it ends up “not” being an ABC wave up then everything changes and we could actually have completed the move down from the 1850 high to the 1772 low and are on our way back up to make a new high.
Yeah, that sounds crazy with the charts looking so bearish but you know how they like to fool everyone. Then there’s the possibility that this move down this morning was truncated 5th down. That means the whole down move is over for at least a week. We could rip up much higher then everyone expects.
This is a common practice by them to get everyone bearish and then squeeze them to new all time highs. While I’m not sure one way or the other on the new highs I firmly believe long is the way to go for awhile. Look to the 7th of next week before even thinking about shorting big again.
Yes, I think the level to short is the 1810-1815 area on the SPX… and I think we’ll see it near the open. It only makes sense to put in the high early in the day as I’m sure there will be some selling before the FOMC meeting at 2:15pm.
And while I do expect a shakeout move to the upside right after the minutes of the meeting are announced it’s not worth taking that chance if we see the 1810-1815 area hit in the morning.
Maybe the FOMC “shakeout” doesn’t happen and the market just drops from whatever Bernanke says (or doesn’t say?). Either way, the shorting zone should be in that area and waiting for a quick move up after the meeting is too risky to chance in my opinion.
The break of the 1752 should happen as I could easily see 1700-1725 being hit. I don’t know if we will get it this week or not but I certainly think one should be short before Bernanke speaks.
Nasdaq version got to the same -66 area yesterday as it did back in 2000 but it did this after it’s flash crash, then rallied to the 0 line. Nasdaq futures are higher now but I wouldn’t be surprised if everything gets reversed tomorrow after a gap up higher…. by the Fed decision…..it is 1-29 after all.
There should be a rally to 3550 $ndx…..then let’s see how things play out.
Only thing is is a known misdirection artist is calling for the same scenario.
Then Tom DeMark is calling for a break of SP 1752 following an upclose to say that a heavy decline has begun.
Geccko, we should rally tomorrow (at the open most likely) to produce some kind of smaller wave 3 up. The target is that 1810 SPX area. Then I’d expect the market to drop into a smaller wave 4 down into the FOMC meeting.
Once it comes out I’d expect the “mis-direction” first move to be to the upside to quickly complete the wave 5 up and take out bears that put stops right above the 1810 area. Then I think we’ll rollover and sell off into Thursday. But I think we’ll stay above the current low of 1772 and close over 1784 for the end of the week.
Nasdaq didn’t pop like I expected today but it did put in an inside day. Unusual action for a fed day and the state of the union address day. Makes me worried that something in tonight’s speech might ignite things. I need to look at some data. A certain little component of a certain indicator was putting in a triple bottom low over the last few months and is bouncing today. Maybe there’s room for a bounce to the O area.
Let me also add that while I think “long” is the way to go right now I’d still exit around 1810 area to re-evaluate the charts again. I’m still not sure on this 5th wave down scenario? If completed then we rally for awhile… and by that I mean a week probably.
If the 5th wave down isn’t finished then we should drop one more time from the 1810 area of resistance. This time it should break the current low of 1772 SPX and possibly hit 1750 area as previously suggested.
This is a tricky area right now but I do believe they will rally up from the FOMC meeting. The question will be… “will it hold”? That I can’t answer yet. I will say that there is NO positive divergence yet in the short term charts. This implies another lower low yet to come… and then a rally all of next week.
Long is the way to go! Looks like we came close to our 1810 SPX area after the bell yesterday as the futures soared up to 1800. Then this morning they dumped them and put in a higher low of 1768.50 ES. Clearly they didn’t want the bears to short at 1810 SPX area so they did the move overnight when they couldn’t take a position.
I was expecting an A wave up from the 1772.95 SPX low a few days ago to hit the 1810 area, and the a larger wave 5 down to break that low. This current move up from 1772.95 looks like a wave 4 up and inside it we have a 3 or 5 wave pattern. The A wave up started yesterday and I think we are in the B wave down this morning.
That leaves a C wave up to complete the larger wave 4 up, which I now suspect they will do after the FOMC meeting. Too many people are now expecting a big dump after Bernanke speaks so I’m thinking they will fool us all again and actually rally it up afterwards.
So, at this point I think long is the way to go until that 1810 area is reached. Then we’ll see if that appears to be the end of the wave 4 up or if it gets extended into a 5 wave pattern instead of a 3 wave pattern. If it ends up “not” being an ABC wave up then everything changes and we could actually have completed the move down from the 1850 high to the 1772 low and are on our way back up to make a new high.
Yeah, that sounds crazy with the charts looking so bearish but you know how they like to fool everyone. Then there’s the possibility that this move down this morning was truncated 5th down. That means the whole down move is over for at least a week. We could rip up much higher then everyone expects.
This is a common practice by them to get everyone bearish and then squeeze them to new all time highs. While I’m not sure one way or the other on the new highs I firmly believe long is the way to go for awhile. Look to the 7th of next week before even thinking about shorting big again.
ES Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/01/es-chart-update_29.html
APPLE Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2014/01/apple-analysis-after-closing-bell_29.html
Email me again…
Hi Red, I am still lurking around here. I sent in my request for the update from Ali. No response yet.
Yes, I think the level to short is the 1810-1815 area on the SPX… and I think we’ll see it near the open. It only makes sense to put in the high early in the day as I’m sure there will be some selling before the FOMC meeting at 2:15pm.
And while I do expect a shakeout move to the upside right after the minutes of the meeting are announced it’s not worth taking that chance if we see the 1810-1815 area hit in the morning.
Maybe the FOMC “shakeout” doesn’t happen and the market just drops from whatever Bernanke says (or doesn’t say?). Either way, the shorting zone should be in that area and waiting for a quick move up after the meeting is too risky to chance in my opinion.
The break of the 1752 should happen as I could easily see 1700-1725 being hit. I don’t know if we will get it this week or not but I certainly think one should be short before Bernanke speaks.
Nasdaq version got to the same -66 area yesterday as it did back in 2000 but it did this after it’s flash crash, then rallied to the 0 line. Nasdaq futures are higher now but I wouldn’t be surprised if everything gets reversed tomorrow after a gap up higher…. by the Fed decision…..it is 1-29 after all.
There should be a rally to 3550 $ndx…..then let’s see how things play out.
Only thing is is a known misdirection artist is calling for the same scenario.
Then Tom DeMark is calling for a break of SP 1752 following an upclose to say that a heavy decline has begun.
Geccko, we should rally tomorrow (at the open most likely) to produce some kind of smaller wave 3 up. The target is that 1810 SPX area. Then I’d expect the market to drop into a smaller wave 4 down into the FOMC meeting.
Once it comes out I’d expect the “mis-direction” first move to be to the upside to quickly complete the wave 5 up and take out bears that put stops right above the 1810 area. Then I think we’ll rollover and sell off into Thursday. But I think we’ll stay above the current low of 1772 and close over 1784 for the end of the week.
Nasdaq didn’t pop like I expected today but it did put in an inside day. Unusual action for a fed day and the state of the union address day. Makes me worried that something in tonight’s speech might ignite things. I need to look at some data. A certain little component of a certain indicator was putting in a triple bottom low over the last few months and is bouncing today. Maybe there’s room for a bounce to the O area.