Overall i cant say im more surprised then disappointed.I belive that alot of people out knew and expected the feds to float the market going into the elections.as ACP pointed out the POMO effect has been losing steam over the period of time since it was introduced till now.Today i will lean towards what red said rallying in early trading and hopefully topping out before midday.I will place alot of attention to the initial jobless claims coming out at 8.30 during pre market cause i see that report setting the tone for todays overall trading trend. If anyone disagree with what ive just said i hope we can have a discussion before trading starts as im still currently in the process of collecting any bits and pieces of info i can lay my hands on before trading starts.
I was wondering what score we might get in the opening game of the World Series but once it got to 10-4 (at one point it was 8-4 looking like we could get an 8-5) things started to look bleak but it ended up 7-11 Giants. By the way, the last time the Giants won a championship was in 1954–56 years ago. And our triumphant triumvurate got their first win of the season 97-87.
Lastly, POMO cash is just that, cash. At some point in time, primary dealers who have been pumping the market for the Fed will no longer see a favorable cost-benefit ratio to pumping the market upwards.
I was thinking about the weirdness before and after the latest G20 and made some semi-conclusions:
First of all, just about every G20 member was all over Geithner for his request to “refrain from competitive devaluation” and exchanges were quite heated during the opening discussions. However, by the end of the meetings, everyone was satisfied with an agreement to do just that. One could deduce that Geithner must have made assurances/guarantees that aren’t being publicized, but may have been leaked in China, being that the HSI tanked yesterday. The HSI is currently trading slightly lower today also. Hmm…an agreement to buy dollars? An actual figure for QE?
Also, what the media stated was a “greenlight” for the dollar to fall farther, turned out to be quite the opposite.
Thirdly, if you look at the selling that occurred before May 6, the selling was sparse before the market tanked. Now, the selling is far more pronounced the last 2 weeks, while the price action was fairly tame. I think the pumpers who may have been caught off guard by the flash crash will now be more than ready to take advantage of the inevitable. Does all that make sense?
Could be just a hedge… or could be a bet on a big move down? Hard too say, as we don’t know who made the bet? It seems like a lot of puts too me, but it could be chump change to who ever made it. How much did it put cost? Times that by the about of puts rolled to see if it’s really a lot of money or not?
S&P 500 Futures before opening bell: CLICK HERE
And the market rallies… go figure. Ok, now let’s see how high she gets today before running out of steam.
News out
USD Unemployment Claims
Previous : 452k
Forecast : 453k
Actual : 434k
Overall i cant say im more surprised then disappointed.I belive that alot of people out knew and expected the feds to float the market going into the elections.as ACP pointed out the POMO effect has been losing steam over the period of time since it was introduced till now.Today i will lean towards what red said rallying in early trading and hopefully topping out before midday.I will place alot of attention to the initial jobless claims coming out at 8.30 during pre market cause i see that report setting the tone for todays overall trading trend. If anyone disagree with what ive just said i hope we can have a discussion before trading starts as im still currently in the process of collecting any bits and pieces of info i can lay my hands on before trading starts.
I was wondering what score we might get in the opening game of the World Series but once it got to 10-4 (at one point it was 8-4 looking like we could get an 8-5) things started to look bleak but it ended up 7-11 Giants. By the way, the last time the Giants won a championship was in 1954–56 years ago. And our triumphant triumvurate got their first win of the season 97-87.
Lastly, POMO cash is just that, cash. At some point in time, primary dealers who have been pumping the market for the Fed will no longer see a favorable cost-benefit ratio to pumping the market upwards.
I was thinking about the weirdness before and after the latest G20 and made some semi-conclusions:
First of all, just about every G20 member was all over Geithner for his request to “refrain from competitive devaluation” and exchanges were quite heated during the opening discussions. However, by the end of the meetings, everyone was satisfied with an agreement to do just that. One could deduce that Geithner must have made assurances/guarantees that aren’t being publicized, but may have been leaked in China, being that the HSI tanked yesterday. The HSI is currently trading slightly lower today also. Hmm…an agreement to buy dollars? An actual figure for QE?
Also, what the media stated was a “greenlight” for the dollar to fall farther, turned out to be quite the opposite.
Thirdly, if you look at the selling that occurred before May 6, the selling was sparse before the market tanked. Now, the selling is far more pronounced the last 2 weeks, while the price action was fairly tame. I think the pumpers who may have been caught off guard by the flash crash will now be more than ready to take advantage of the inevitable. Does all that make sense?
New post…
S&P 500 analysis after closing bell: CLICK HERE
Could be just a hedge… or could be a bet on a big move down? Hard too say, as we don’t know who made the bet? It seems like a lot of puts too me, but it could be chump change to who ever made it. How much did it put cost? Times that by the about of puts rolled to see if it’s really a lot of money or not?