Possibly Mike? But I think that once the daily chart moves below the zero level on the histogram bars… it won’t be coming back up for awhile. I think the last “fake out” to the upside is today.
Let’s throw the charts out the window, as they haven’t been working when the government steps in an manipulates the market.
So instead, let’s focus on the fact that they don’t have and more POMO’s planned until October 13th, which too me… means that the charts should start working properly again, and they currently don’t look like they will produce anymore upside “fake outs” beyond today.
I think we could assist to a shake-out in the next couple days taking the shape of a M pattern where the DOW trades in a 200 point range; the purpose being to have 1 more faked breakdown and 1 more faked breakout to commit more bulls and get rid of remaining bears.
True its no wonder people have fallen into the mind set that everything is ok right now and in sept if you noticed the news reports that came out were all good.However this time round on one single bad news every channel jumped on it i just wonder if its a big plan to change the mindset of people before it hits.Then they can say ( look we gave you warnings ) Goldmen looks to be spreading some bad news on the economic front.Maybe its cause they need more support for their bailout on NOV 2.IMHO trading ( NOW) is not done by techs or fundamentals any more its traded on feelings (hopes and dreams).Feds have won this round cause breaking the bad Sept month for 71 years and pulling people over to that mindset where ( hey dont worry if anything happens we are here ) has in fact won over a number of people.However going against the natural flow of order will cause an imbalance which when the time comes will either cause chaos or a restructure.If trading is nothing more then a transfer of accounts ( losers to winners ) then they seriously do have a truck load of losers when the market turns around and the ones that end up winning are those that caused this imbalance and know that its coming.
They are doing a really good job of working off the overbought conditions on the short term charts, but the daily and weekly will take more then one day to reset back up.
Let’s see how well the push it up tomorrow without any more money…
@Mike with that being said looks like today is shaping up to be a sidewards moving day.The last POMO should have ended by now and its only been able to float the market 10915 holds for the time being and it doesnt seem to have much momentum to break it.However its still early and anything might happen.
I think we are just finishing our right shoulder of this huge HS formation of 2010. Looking at a weekly chart, we can see our left shoulder in January 2010 and the head peaking in April 2010. Now the right shoulder is almost completed. Also,if you set the chart with a solid line the pattern of this RS is exactly the same as the peak in April that eventually lead to the flash crash and the big correction from April to June. I think we should get a nasty correction any time soon.
There are many divergences to name a few: Vix has not made a new low compared to SPY new high, Nasdaq did not confirm it by not making a new high, also DJ Transp. did not confirm either. Cobra mentionned the COT net short position, level of complacency and bullishness is at a high. The current rally essentially fueled by POMO events.
It is not the time to buy this breakout, this is a bull trap and almost all the bears are already destroyed. We are at a top and the upside is limited. This is a perfect setup to trap all the bulls with no bears taking advantage.I believe we are ready to fall.
From fork-tongue (Cobra):
“However for the intermediate-term, I’ll maintain the bearish view. The main reasons are:
As mentioned in 10/01 Market Recap, the Commercial Hedgers have piled up historical high Nasdaq 100 short positions.
Statistically, the Earning Season starting within this week may very likely underperform, because the market was up a lot in off-season.”
note: he is short-term bullish due to the breakout yesterday.
Possibly Mike? But I think that once the daily chart moves below the zero level on the histogram bars… it won’t be coming back up for awhile. I think the last “fake out” to the upside is today.
Let’s throw the charts out the window, as they haven’t been working when the government steps in an manipulates the market.
So instead, let’s focus on the fact that they don’t have and more POMO’s planned until October 13th, which too me… means that the charts should start working properly again, and they currently don’t look like they will produce anymore upside “fake outs” beyond today.
I think we could assist to a shake-out in the next couple days taking the shape of a M pattern where the DOW trades in a 200 point range; the purpose being to have 1 more faked breakdown and 1 more faked breakout to commit more bulls and get rid of remaining bears.
True its no wonder people have fallen into the mind set that everything is ok right now and in sept if you noticed the news reports that came out were all good.However this time round on one single bad news every channel jumped on it i just wonder if its a big plan to change the mindset of people before it hits.Then they can say ( look we gave you warnings ) Goldmen looks to be spreading some bad news on the economic front.Maybe its cause they need more support for their bailout on NOV 2.IMHO trading ( NOW) is not done by techs or fundamentals any more its traded on feelings (hopes and dreams).Feds have won this round cause breaking the bad Sept month for 71 years and pulling people over to that mindset where ( hey dont worry if anything happens we are here ) has in fact won over a number of people.However going against the natural flow of order will cause an imbalance which when the time comes will either cause chaos or a restructure.If trading is nothing more then a transfer of accounts ( losers to winners ) then they seriously do have a truck load of losers when the market turns around and the ones that end up winning are those that caused this imbalance and know that its coming.
They are doing a really good job of working off the overbought conditions on the short term charts, but the daily and weekly will take more then one day to reset back up.
Let’s see how well the push it up tomorrow without any more money…
@Mike with that being said looks like today is shaping up to be a sidewards moving day.The last POMO should have ended by now and its only been able to float the market 10915 holds for the time being and it doesnt seem to have much momentum to break it.However its still early and anything might happen.
APPLE chart with Fibonacci levels
I think we are just finishing our right shoulder of this huge HS formation of 2010. Looking at a weekly chart, we can see our left shoulder in January 2010 and the head peaking in April 2010. Now the right shoulder is almost completed. Also,if you set the chart with a solid line the pattern of this RS is exactly the same as the peak in April that eventually lead to the flash crash and the big correction from April to June. I think we should get a nasty correction any time soon.
There are many divergences to name a few: Vix has not made a new low compared to SPY new high, Nasdaq did not confirm it by not making a new high, also DJ Transp. did not confirm either. Cobra mentionned the COT net short position, level of complacency and bullishness is at a high. The current rally essentially fueled by POMO events.
It is not the time to buy this breakout, this is a bull trap and almost all the bears are already destroyed. We are at a top and the upside is limited. This is a perfect setup to trap all the bulls with no bears taking advantage.I believe we are ready to fall.
ProphetAlerts saying watch VHC – could be a blow-off top. looks very parabolic – only professional gamblers need apply
Interesting that the Dow weekly is resting under the 200dma. maybe we get a false upward break – put in a double top – then wham!
From fork-tongue (Cobra):
“However for the intermediate-term, I’ll maintain the bearish view. The main reasons are:
As mentioned in 10/01 Market Recap, the Commercial Hedgers have piled up historical high Nasdaq 100 short positions.
Statistically, the Earning Season starting within this week may very likely underperform, because the market was up a lot in off-season.”
note: he is short-term bullish due to the breakout yesterday.
good chart at: http://tinyurl.com/25bb8mm