Russell 2000 daily did close above the close 4 periods ago but did not close above that day's high. On the weekly it formed a hanging man. It also did reach its July low compared to the other indices so 1987 might be more applicable since in 1987 the final bounce came off the September low. Russell also has rallied for three days and its 20 day average has crossed below the 50 and is close enough to the $RUT that I don't think it is necessary for any furthur rally unless we just put in an intermediate low (which I put a very low probability of that having occurred). SP weekly has the 20 crossing 50 period right now and it is the verge of happening for crude oil. This is a very rare occurrence which is virtually almost certain to be reversed in the near term. (unless the bulls are very lucky as a certain troll might say—-Cano is just crushing Zobrist by the way). Back to bull flips, the flip usually occurs on a massive white candle and we had examples in late may and off the June 8 low and at the July low. Yesterday's bar when it was an easy position to do so was a massive failure.
Here is a special treat for you. I haven’t updated this chart since january, note that the data is already a bit old, June 30. Seems like just lately that alot more money has flowed to bonds.
Short and sweet: BONDS ARE A TRAP!
All the HBB financial adviser bullshit about portfolio re balancing, shifting your bond/equity asset allocation, etc, it just that, a bunch of bull. Bonds are a promise to pay, a paper asset.
Read this chart carefully, it’s a real winner. Especially if you are holding a bunch of bonds and feeling safe.
Check out this link to an interesting 40 page review of “Retirement Assets”. I think this is important because it represents 35% of all wealth. And that means it’s a big target, and HBB want’s it. They don’t want just to control it, they want IT. I expect this to be the next big battlefield. Financial ogliarchs will craft up legislation that gives them more access to your retirement savings. Here are some ideas—they force a percent of your retirement account into safe bonds “for your own good” further blowing up the bond bubble….they sell off at the top on their own bonds and leave you hanging on to a pile of shit. Or T-bills “Support America” law…works the same as bonds, they use your money to feed a bubble, they sell off at the top, short it in fact, and leave you with a pile of shit. See how that works?
Distancing oneself from the market action of yesterday, things don't appear really that bad. None of the indices, Dow,SP,Nasdaq filled what I viewed as a breakaway gap from earlier in the week. And all of them including the Russell 2000 did not close above the close 4 periods earlier, an occurrence normally during a bull flip on a newly created rally. Plus we got a box formation similar to the late April early May highs the past four days where the last four bars appear to be contained in a box like range. It is especially evident in the Nasdaq. And despite bullish hysteria yesterday, it came out that Intel lowered its guidance and gross margin forecast despite proclaiming excellent guidance for the rest of the year last month. $SOX index has already broken its July low. I went back to the 1987 charts and the last up day before the 4 day meltdown into the crash, the white upcandle like todays was completely inside the BBs (did not touch the lower one) and it approached the close of the bar 4 periods earlier but did not close above it. The previous day's bar had pierced the lower BB. (in 2010 this was 2 days ago—2010 is lagging 1987–things are playing out slower—as Hank Wiernicki mentioned its 2010 weekly vs. 1987 daily). The next day the market collapsed down to the lower BB which should be in 1030s area. I see Sept 3 as an important low date so there is time for things to play out. Bulls were very giddy yesterday and don't seem to be worried about holding over the weekend or terrified by the ominous forebodings of the Hindenburg Omen (despite how everyone claims that everyone is bearish). At important bottoms, one doesn't see bulls so actively jumping into the market. It appears they see an inverse H+S. The market is holding up also to allow its 20 day average to catch up to it. There are still plenty of early August dates at the high involved in the calculation to keep it from dropping steeply but it is a few days away from crossing a downtrending 50 day average so I expect the market should plummet before that cross occurs. (as it last did at the May 12 post flash crash high)
Given that the USA is (technically) bankrupt, Bernanky (sic) has only two choices:
1. Become a statesman, admit the situation and allow America (and in the process, most other Western nations) to default; or
2. Print like crazy to delay the inevitable. In the meantime he and his friends can become even more rich and the eventual problem falls into someone elses lap.
To paraphrase James Clark, a statesman is a politican that thinks of his grandchildren. Not one person in Washington is thinking beyond the next election…
I wouldn't expect it to just fall off a cliff on Monday morning though Robert. The put/call ratio is heavy on the put side, and that level needs to come down first.
I could see another run up on Monday morning happening, and then maybe closing flat with a doji. But don't expect them to just tank it that quickly.
But, I do agree with you that it won't last too long… Good luck to all of us (especially us bears… LOL)
Thank God for stops. Classic manipulation indeed…….We were overbought somewhat. Should see some selling Monday since all the bulls are giddy now…………..Have a great weekend all…..
That print doesn't look Fake? What's so usual about a dip like that?
Non-TOS users, is this /SI (silver futures) fake print on your charts? I'm curious whether this is a TOS-specific mess up.
http://content.screencast.com/users/raised_by_w…
Russell 2000 daily did close above the close 4 periods ago but did not close above that day's high. On the weekly it formed a hanging man. It also did reach its July low compared to the other indices so 1987 might be more applicable since in 1987 the final bounce came off the September low. Russell also has rallied for three days and its 20 day average has crossed below the 50 and is close enough to the $RUT that I don't think it is necessary for any furthur rally unless we just put in an intermediate low (which I put a very low probability of that having occurred).
SP weekly has the 20 crossing 50 period right now and it is the verge of happening for crude oil. This is a very rare occurrence which is virtually almost certain to be reversed in the near term. (unless the bulls are very lucky as a certain troll might say—-Cano is just crushing Zobrist by the way).
Back to bull flips, the flip usually occurs on a massive white candle and we had examples in late may and off the June 8 low and at the July low. Yesterday's bar when it was an easy position to do so was a massive failure.
Making charts from raw data, how old fashioned!
Here is a special treat for you. I haven’t updated this chart since january, note that the data is already a bit old, June 30. Seems like just lately that alot more money has flowed to bonds.
Short and sweet: BONDS ARE A TRAP!
All the HBB financial adviser bullshit about portfolio re balancing, shifting your bond/equity asset allocation, etc, it just that, a bunch of bull. Bonds are a promise to pay, a paper asset.
Read this chart carefully, it’s a real winner. Especially if you are holding a bunch of bonds and feeling safe.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/08/mutual-fund-money-flows-special-treat.html
Check out this link to an interesting 40 page review of “Retirement Assets”. I think this is important because it represents 35% of all wealth. And that means it’s a big target, and HBB want’s it. They don’t want just to control it, they want IT. I expect this to be the next big battlefield. Financial ogliarchs will craft up legislation that gives them more access to your retirement savings. Here are some ideas—they force a percent of your retirement account into safe bonds “for your own good” further blowing up the bond bubble….they sell off at the top on their own bonds and leave you hanging on to a pile of shit. Or T-bills “Support America” law…works the same as bonds, they use your money to feed a bubble, they sell off at the top, short it in fact, and leave you with a pile of shit. See how that works?
http://www.ici.org/pdf/fm-v19n3.pdf
Charts below are from the ICI report
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2010/08/mutual-fund-money-flows-special-treat.html
Distancing oneself from the market action of yesterday, things don't appear really that bad. None of the indices, Dow,SP,Nasdaq filled what I viewed as a breakaway gap from earlier in the week. And all of them including the Russell 2000 did not close above the close 4 periods earlier, an occurrence normally during a bull flip on a newly created rally. Plus we got a box formation similar to the late April early May highs the past four days where the last four bars appear to be contained in a box like range. It is especially evident in the Nasdaq. And despite bullish hysteria yesterday, it came out that Intel lowered its guidance and gross margin forecast despite proclaiming excellent guidance for the rest of the year last month. $SOX index has already broken its July low.
I went back to the 1987 charts and the last up day before the 4 day meltdown into the crash, the white upcandle like todays was completely inside the BBs (did not touch the lower one) and it approached the close of the bar 4 periods earlier but did not close above it. The previous day's bar had pierced the lower BB. (in 2010 this was 2 days ago—2010 is lagging 1987–things are playing out slower—as Hank Wiernicki mentioned its 2010 weekly vs. 1987 daily). The next day the market collapsed down to the lower BB which should be in 1030s area. I see Sept 3 as an important low date so there is time for things to play out.
Bulls were very giddy yesterday and don't seem to be worried about holding over the weekend or terrified by the ominous forebodings of the Hindenburg Omen (despite how everyone claims that everyone is bearish). At important bottoms, one doesn't see bulls so actively jumping into the market. It appears they see an inverse H+S.
The market is holding up also to allow its 20 day average to catch up to it. There are still plenty of early August dates at the high involved in the calculation to keep it from dropping steeply but it is a few days away from crossing a downtrending 50 day average so I expect the market should plummet before that cross occurs. (as it last did at the May 12 post flash crash high)
You know, in a perverse way this makes sense.
Given that the USA is (technically) bankrupt, Bernanky (sic) has only two choices:
1. Become a statesman, admit the situation and allow America (and in the process, most other Western nations) to default; or
2. Print like crazy to delay the inevitable. In the meantime he and his friends can become even more rich and the eventual problem falls into someone elses lap.
To paraphrase James Clark, a statesman is a politican that thinks of his grandchildren. Not one person in Washington is thinking beyond the next election…
Good video.
I wouldn't expect it to just fall off a cliff on Monday morning though Robert. The put/call ratio is heavy on the put side, and that level needs to come down first.
I could see another run up on Monday morning happening, and then maybe closing flat with a doji. But don't expect them to just tank it that quickly.
But, I do agree with you that it won't last too long… Good luck to all of us (especially us bears… LOL)
Thank God for stops. Classic manipulation indeed…….We were overbought somewhat. Should see some selling Monday since all the bulls are giddy now…………..Have a great weekend all…..
S&P 500 analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…