I have read the 10 yr tends to bottom about 2-4 months ahead of the stock market. We aren't there yet so plenty of downside in the future. Agree Red, the rally today should be short lived.
My only concern is that this is a very-much anticipated crash, telegraphed by the move into treasuries.
TLT is well above the levels when $SPX was flirting with 1000. It reminds me of the move gold made just before December of 2009 (including exhaustion gaps). Everyone is on the same side of the trade, and it *will* unwind quickly, but I don't know from what level.
If we gap down tomorrow, I'm going to go “stupid long”. I fully expect another short squeeze by the MMs before any real crash starts.
I do agree with you Dreadwin, as this doesn't feel like a wave 3 down… yet! I really think we are going to fall off a cliff starting as early as tomorrow and continuing at least until the end of the week.
A crash is coming, and tomorrow should start it. While we should go up a little in the morning, the rest of the day should be down. I don't know how good or bad anymore news out tomorrow will be, but the charts are still pointing down… so it won't really matter about it.
I've been taking some time and looking at the move in bond prices. This is very similar to the pattern in late 2008. Bonds peaked, then the market put in a mini-rally, then everything tanked.
Does this down move feel like a wave 3? I don't think so. I remember 30% up days in FAZ and SRS back in '08, and with the exception of the flash crash, we haven't seen any of that.
New low on Mcclellan Oscillator going back to late May. Crash tomorrow and/ or over the next two days since TTheory Dude has had August 26 as a longtime high for the market and he is always money on these calls (in the reverse). We also had a stealth daily reversal lower(like May 18 when new lows were made in afterhours) which projects possible selling into the 26th. Also look at the fractal similarity to the pre flash crash day and the pre May 20th meltdown day. Russell and Nasdaq bars are more appropriate but if one looks at the action of the last three days, there is a similarity.
I'm not sure how high it will go, if it goes up at all? I'm thinking we might fill the gap in the first hour or so, but regardless… the afternoon should continue the selling. Just keep your eye's on the 60 minute chart.
I have read the 10 yr tends to bottom about 2-4 months ahead of the stock market. We aren't there yet so plenty of downside in the future. Agree Red, the rally today should be short lived.
I meant we had a stealth daily reversal yesterday which was completed in the afternoon after-hours session
My only concern is that this is a very-much anticipated crash, telegraphed by the move into treasuries.
TLT is well above the levels when $SPX was flirting with 1000. It reminds me of the move gold made just before December of 2009 (including exhaustion gaps). Everyone is on the same side of the trade, and it *will* unwind quickly, but I don't know from what level.
If we gap down tomorrow, I'm going to go “stupid long”. I fully expect another short squeeze by the MMs before any real crash starts.
Refresh page for new video update. (No new post though).
I do agree with you Dreadwin, as this doesn't feel like a wave 3 down… yet! I really think we are going to fall off a cliff starting as early as tomorrow and continuing at least until the end of the week.
A crash is coming, and tomorrow should start it. While we should go up a little in the morning, the rest of the day should be down. I don't know how good or bad anymore news out tomorrow will be, but the charts are still pointing down… so it won't really matter about it.
I've been taking some time and looking at the move in bond prices. This is very similar to the pattern in late 2008. Bonds peaked, then the market put in a mini-rally, then everything tanked.
Does this down move feel like a wave 3? I don't think so. I remember 30% up days in FAZ and SRS back in '08, and with the exception of the flash crash, we haven't seen any of that.
I see selling pressure the rest of the week. The numbers will continue to disappiont. Fridays GDP will be ugly……….
New low on Mcclellan Oscillator going back to late May. Crash tomorrow and/ or over the next two days since TTheory Dude has had August 26 as a longtime high for the market and he is always money on these calls (in the reverse). We also had a stealth daily reversal lower(like May 18 when new lows were made in afterhours) which projects possible selling into the 26th. Also look at the fractal similarity to the pre flash crash day and the pre May 20th meltdown day. Russell and Nasdaq bars are more appropriate but if one looks at the action of the last three days, there is a similarity.
S&P 500 analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
I'm not sure how high it will go, if it goes up at all? I'm thinking we might fill the gap in the first hour or so, but regardless… the afternoon should continue the selling. Just keep your eye's on the 60 minute chart.