Keep in mind everyone, we still have that FP of 111.17 spy. Although it doesn't look likely that it will hit it, anything is possible. We are only assuming that we completely smaller wave 1 down on Friday and are now in wave 2 up.
If the 110.25 high is broken then we are still in wave 2 up from the 1010 low… meaning this would be C wave in an ABC move from that 1010 low. While I don't think that is the case, and I give it low odds, the FP of 111.17 still lingers on my mind. It will be hit, but when?
I love to read the long posts, so keep them coming. As for the count, you are right… we are just starting the Minor wave 1 down, which should bottom at the FP of Dow 8300.
Then minor wave 2 back up until the end of the year should happen. Next year would give us the minor wave 3 down, and be the most volient wave of all.
However, inside this minor wave 1 that we are currently in from the April high, we should have 5 minute waves… of which I think the first one ended at the 1010 low.
Then back up for minute wave 2 to the 1129 recent high. Now we should be in minute wave 3 down. Of course inside of it will also contain 5 smaller waves. I think we completed the wave 1 at Friday's low and are now in wave 2 up.
When finished this Wednesday, I expect the wave 3 down to start inside of minute wave 3, inside of minor wave 1, inside of primary wave 3. Whew! I hope I got that right? LOL
I'm sure those EW guys got the count better then me, as I left out the minor wave 1 part. Labeling them correctly seems to be different by each person that does it. But regardless, we still have a lot of wave 3 downs coming.
I have been reading and listening to your comments for quite a while now (albeit from the other side of the world), and have always found them informative, thoughtful and (sometimes) even entertaining.
Your comment up above about the wave count has finally caused me to put fingers to keyboard. I am an EW subscriber, and although I can't forward or publish their information on this website, I think it is ok for me to “discuss” my “interpretation” of what I am seeing.
The accepted wave count so far is thus: the bottom of Primary Wave 1 was in Mar 09 (S&P500 numbers, by the way); the top of Primary Wave 2 in Apr 10 (on the 26th, I think). The bottom of Minor Wave 1 was in late May and the top of Minor wave 2 was on Aug the 9th.
So what's got me worried is that we are not yet starting wave 3 of 3 of 3: right now we are only going to the bottom of Minor wave 3 (target: Dow 8500/SP500 at about 880). This Minor wave 3 is just part of the five -wave down trend of Intermediate Wave 1.Then there should be a 3-wave counter trend rally to the top of Intermediate Wave 2 and only then will we be in a position to suffer/enjoy the pleasures of Minor Wave 3 of Intermediate Wave 3 of Primary wave 3… (At this point a well-known US demographer has a target of DJIA 3000, whereas EW believes it will be even lower – I believe Robert Prechter has said in the regoin of DJIA 1000).
I enjoyed your FP of the Gold chart – BTW, EW has a target for Gold at about $690…
It's too hard to talk charts and counts without using pictures, sorry about the long post: I'm definately not trying to steal your thunder!
Keep in mind everyone, we still have that FP of 111.17 spy. Although it doesn't look likely that it will hit it, anything is possible. We are only assuming that we completely smaller wave 1 down on Friday and are now in wave 2 up.
If the 110.25 high is broken then we are still in wave 2 up from the 1010 low… meaning this would be C wave in an ABC move from that 1010 low. While I don't think that is the case, and I give it low odds, the FP of 111.17 still lingers on my mind. It will be hit, but when?
Falling Wedge of S&P 500
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
for today it is around 1087.
Looks like about 10,300 is the top of that wedge. Is that about 1080 on the spx?
Dow Jones futures before opening bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Actually Jed,
I love to read the long posts, so keep them coming. As for the count, you are right… we are just starting the Minor wave 1 down, which should bottom at the FP of Dow 8300.
Then minor wave 2 back up until the end of the year should happen. Next year would give us the minor wave 3 down, and be the most volient wave of all.
However, inside this minor wave 1 that we are currently in from the April high, we should have 5 minute waves… of which I think the first one ended at the 1010 low.
Then back up for minute wave 2 to the 1129 recent high. Now we should be in minute wave 3 down. Of course inside of it will also contain 5 smaller waves. I think we completed the wave 1 at Friday's low and are now in wave 2 up.
When finished this Wednesday, I expect the wave 3 down to start inside of minute wave 3, inside of minor wave 1, inside of primary wave 3. Whew! I hope I got that right? LOL
I'm sure those EW guys got the count better then me, as I left out the minor wave 1 part. Labeling them correctly seems to be different by each person that does it. But regardless, we still have a lot of wave 3 downs coming.
Thanks for posting, and keep me informed.
Red
G'Day Red,
I have been reading and listening to your comments for quite a while now (albeit from the other side of the world), and have always found them informative, thoughtful and (sometimes) even entertaining.
Your comment up above about the wave count has finally caused me to put fingers to keyboard. I am an EW subscriber, and although I can't forward or publish their information on this website, I think it is ok for me to “discuss” my “interpretation” of what I am seeing.
The accepted wave count so far is thus: the bottom of Primary Wave 1 was in Mar 09 (S&P500 numbers, by the way); the top of Primary Wave 2 in Apr 10 (on the 26th, I think). The bottom of Minor Wave 1 was in late May and the top of Minor wave 2 was on Aug the 9th.
So what's got me worried is that we are not yet starting wave 3 of 3 of 3: right now we are only going to the bottom of Minor wave 3 (target: Dow 8500/SP500 at about 880). This Minor wave 3 is just part of the five -wave down trend of Intermediate Wave 1.Then there should be a 3-wave counter trend rally to the top of Intermediate Wave 2 and only then will we be in a position to suffer/enjoy the pleasures of Minor Wave 3 of Intermediate Wave 3 of Primary wave 3… (At this point a well-known US demographer has a target of DJIA 3000, whereas EW believes it will be even lower – I believe Robert Prechter has said in the regoin of DJIA 1000).
I enjoyed your FP of the Gold chart – BTW, EW has a target for Gold at about $690…
It's too hard to talk charts and counts without using pictures, sorry about the long post: I'm definately not trying to steal your thunder!
Keep up the great work – thanks!
Thanks CC…
Good stuff Red.
Musings…..
SPX
http://screencast.com/t/NjI3ZjYxNGUt
SOX already broken trend line, a leader…
http://screencast.com/t/YTg3Yjc0YTEt
Weekend Update is now up…