Well, I keep hearing from the bears how bearish everyone is. That has to be a contrarian signal in itself. There was a market ticker sense poll last week that had 50%bulls and that was last Monday before the market meltup. Breadth is 2 to1 negative almost on a doji day. That really isn't normal.
Maybe? But somehow I just don't see another large down move this week. If you watched that video about the bearish sentiment I posted earlier, you'll see that we are at an all time high.
Then you look at the amount of short interest for this month, versus longs, you'll see that the put way out number the calls. So unless they want to pay out on all those puts, I think the downside will be limited.
The rout is on. Just that the Dow and some averages are masking the action so far. Russell 2000 down 1.24% and NewYork Stock Composite has been weak all day. Solar eclipse yesterday to ignite the downmove. My best trading cycle extended a day to coincide with the solar eclipse top. The last solar eclipse in January propelled a sharp drop through options expiration.
Agreed Jim… there is no conviction to buy. However, I don't see any conviction to sell either… at least not today. Maybe later in the week, if the earnings are really bad (mainly on the future outlook for each company), but for now it's slow as molasses.
That's the point of the race. In a restaurant, buy a piece of blueberry cheesecake. Tip on its side and place blueberries at top. Pick your blueberry. First blueberry to the bottom wins (and its owner gets to eat the cheesecake). The last blueberry's owner pays for the cheesecake!
Well, I keep hearing from the bears how bearish everyone is. That has to be a contrarian signal in itself. There was a market ticker sense poll last week that had 50%bulls and that was last Monday before the market meltup. Breadth is 2 to1 negative almost on a doji day. That really isn't normal.
As I said last week we need to fill the gap on the Naz. Still have not done it.
Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/07/dow-jones-analysis-after-closing-bell_13.html
Wow it's busy in here!
Maybe? But somehow I just don't see another large down move this week. If you watched that video about the bearish sentiment I posted earlier, you'll see that we are at an all time high.
Then you look at the amount of short interest for this month, versus longs, you'll see that the put way out number the calls. So unless they want to pay out on all those puts, I think the downside will be limited.
The rout is on. Just that the Dow and some averages are masking the action so far. Russell 2000 down 1.24% and NewYork Stock Composite has been weak all day. Solar eclipse yesterday to ignite the downmove. My best trading cycle extended a day to coincide with the solar eclipse top. The last solar eclipse in January propelled a sharp drop through options expiration.
Agreed Jim… there is no conviction to buy. However, I don't see any conviction to sell either… at least not today. Maybe later in the week, if the earnings are really bad (mainly on the future outlook for each company), but for now it's slow as molasses.
Dow Jones 5 minutes chart in a triangle
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
But there are a few telling signs for an Opex monday.
RVIX is over 6% so there is selling at a brisker pace than the otrher indexes. Vix is very minor negative range in complete contrast to R vix.
So i am wondering which will play catchup??
I got stopped out of all TNA and SSO this am so iam looking at going back short in a small way to set up adds.
this market has no conviction on the buy at the moment.
That's the point of the race. In a restaurant, buy a piece of blueberry cheesecake. Tip on its side and place blueberries at top. Pick your blueberry. First blueberry to the bottom wins (and its owner gets to eat the cheesecake). The last blueberry's owner pays for the cheesecake!