It's certainly in a tough spot right now Rosa… as it really needs to fall a little more 9about 1075-1080) to hit the lower trendline support on the rising channel, and then bounce back up into a “C” wave up.
Or, does it fall on through the trendline and go on down and retest the 1040 level again? It doesn't look ready to bounce back up from the current level it's at now, so that leads me to believe we will go lower before any multi-day rally starts back up.
How low is anyone's guess, but if that trendline support breaks (around 1075-1080), then I do believe we are going to 1040 again.
If you adjust the MA for cycle length and make it into an oscillator then watch for the zero cross. Very few whipsaws! Also, the McOsc is calculated incorrectly on Stockcharts. It is slightly off. I will publish periodic updates for you to see. This has implications for those that use the Summation index with a 20day MA cross. There was no cross!
I am a swing trader but for what its worth here is my work. I have solicited the help of RecnaduS and worked this by combining his cycle work (Ehlers) with what I can on my feed. We are also looking at the Summation Index and MO on stockcharts which seems to be flawed. http://www.screencast.com/users/has001u/folders…
Like I thought, they did a great ramp job the last hour to ensure SPX closed above 1089, which also happens to be the Daily 20 SMA. Go back and look at the Rally off the Feb 2010 low. We rallied from 1044.5 to 1112.42 and then sold off to the 20 SMA, which at the time was at 1087.4. Same thing, we didn't close under it and rallied from their to the April Highs. While the news and general sentiment is worse this time, the 20 SMA backtest could serve as the launching pad again.
Bears completely blew it in the last 30 minutes. Given everythign that came on today, today should not be an even or slight up/down day. That shows me that the conviction to the downside isn't as strong as we think. The tape and price action have shown us as such. I'm keeping my shorts, but have a very uneasy feeling.
It's certainly in a tough spot right now Rosa… as it really needs to fall a little more 9about 1075-1080) to hit the lower trendline support on the rising channel, and then bounce back up into a “C” wave up.
Or, does it fall on through the trendline and go on down and retest the 1040 level again? It doesn't look ready to bounce back up from the current level it's at now, so that leads me to believe we will go lower before any multi-day rally starts back up.
How low is anyone's guess, but if that trendline support breaks (around 1075-1080), then I do believe we are going to 1040 again.
If you adjust the MA for cycle length and make it into an oscillator then watch for the zero cross. Very few whipsaws! Also, the McOsc is calculated incorrectly on Stockcharts. It is slightly off. I will publish periodic updates for you to see. This has implications for those that use the Summation index with a 20day MA cross. There was no cross!
Anyway, have a good night!
Thanks eggman but i am not sure I understand it?!
Hi there!
I am a swing trader but for what its worth here is my work. I have solicited the help of RecnaduS and worked this by combining his cycle work (Ehlers) with what I can on my feed. We are also looking at the Summation Index and MO on stockcharts which seems to be flawed. http://www.screencast.com/users/has001u/folders…
I think short term bounce and then crash hard.
http://midasfinancialmarkets.blogspot.com/2010/…
Plenty of mixed signals. A good reason to be hedged and/or trade small, imo.
Like I thought, they did a great ramp job the last hour to ensure SPX closed above 1089, which also happens to be the Daily 20 SMA. Go back and look at the Rally off the Feb 2010 low. We rallied from 1044.5 to 1112.42 and then sold off to the 20 SMA, which at the time was at 1087.4. Same thing, we didn't close under it and rallied from their to the April Highs. While the news and general sentiment is worse this time, the 20 SMA backtest could serve as the launching pad again.
Don't be uneasy. The bears are just waiting to attack.
Bears completely blew it in the last 30 minutes. Given everythign that came on today, today should not be an even or slight up/down day. That shows me that the conviction to the downside isn't as strong as we think. The tape and price action have shown us as such. I'm keeping my shorts, but have a very uneasy feeling.
Does anyone else have whiplash?!