There are a few things I am looking at tomorrow. Daneric had a quote on his site that really stuck out to me “if everyone has that count (particularly EWI), it likely won't pan out” and I have found that to be correct from my experience as well. Everyone is looking for this to be the B wave of the correction and the C back up to complete the right shoulder. I have seen it in many peoples counts
FOMC days are usually bullish, especially in the morning leading up to 2:15. No one has entioned the smaller head and shoulders that was broken on the SPX and even more clearly formed on the XLF over the last 5 days or so.
First the SPX. We broke back under the 200 day MA after 4 days of barely satying above. This is bearish. We also broke below a H&S neckline. I expect the market to push back up to 1110-1113 where the backtest of the neckline and 200 day MA meet and then reverse. http://screencast.com/t/NGQzYWY2 Also notice how many times the 200 day MA has recently been resistence or support. http://screencast.com/t/MTk5MTVkZjgt
In all, I think the correction ended at 1131 and the next big wave down is coming. Also notice that the Nasdaq completed the bigger right shoulder almost perfectly. Good luck all!
Yes Rip, the right shoulder is too obvious for me to believe that it will magically go there and reverse, allowing everyone to get short and make a bunch of money.
We have either already made the right shoulder, or we will likely go past it, and make a new high.
We should bounce back up around 1080 Jim, and go back up and finish the “C” wave up, in an ABC to 1150 or so, for the right shoulder. But that seems too obvious to happen.
I think the right shoulder is already in (Monday's high), or we will go make a new high over the next few months, fooling everyone.
But first we have to get past this week, so let's just take it one day at a time.
No earthly reason for the Fed to raise rates except to throw the markets into chaos, so I think FOMC will be safe and cause for a reversal day.
I am looking for tomorrow to be bearish in the morning with a test of 1075-1080, and rally in the afternoon for a long green doji. After that, we will be under all important MAs and I expect us to stay there (welcome to bear country).
If tomorrow is green all day and reverses what was done today, then I would exit shorts and look for a major rally.
This whole right shoulder thing does not make sense to me. We have a RS already. If we go higher in a major way, I think we could even wind up testing 1220 again. I mean, the market would be wide open.
While I have no great love for BP particularly or any global corporation, it was nice to see a judge rule with some common sense against the moratorium. Oil companies will always profit but no gulf drilling would have been a shove off the cliff for our economy instead of the slow deliberate suicide march up the mountain before finally deciding to jump off the ledge.
There are a few things I am looking at tomorrow. Daneric had a quote on his site that really stuck out to me “if everyone has that count (particularly EWI), it likely won't pan out” and I have found that to be correct from my experience as well. Everyone is looking for this to be the B wave of the correction and the C back up to complete the right shoulder. I have seen it in many peoples counts
FOMC days are usually bullish, especially in the morning leading up to 2:15. No one has entioned the smaller head and shoulders that was broken on the SPX and even more clearly formed on the XLF over the last 5 days or so.
First the SPX. We broke back under the 200 day MA after 4 days of barely satying above. This is bearish. We also broke below a H&S neckline. I expect the market to push back up to 1110-1113 where the backtest of the neckline and 200 day MA meet and then reverse.
http://screencast.com/t/NGQzYWY2
Also notice how many times the 200 day MA has recently been resistence or support.
http://screencast.com/t/MTk5MTVkZjgt
Lastly the XLF. This chart doesnt need much description. Its slightly more zoomed out http://screencast.com/t/ZmY5ZDFlMj
In all, I think the correction ended at 1131 and the next big wave down is coming. Also notice that the Nasdaq completed the bigger right shoulder almost perfectly. Good luck all!
Yes Rip, the right shoulder is too obvious for me to believe that it will magically go there and reverse, allowing everyone to get short and make a bunch of money.
We have either already made the right shoulder, or we will likely go past it, and make a new high.
We should bounce back up around 1080 Jim, and go back up and finish the “C” wave up, in an ABC to 1150 or so, for the right shoulder. But that seems too obvious to happen.
I think the right shoulder is already in (Monday's high), or we will go make a new high over the next few months, fooling everyone.
But first we have to get past this week, so let's just take it one day at a time.
No earthly reason for the Fed to raise rates except to throw the markets into chaos, so I think FOMC will be safe and cause for a reversal day.
I am looking for tomorrow to be bearish in the morning with a test of 1075-1080, and rally in the afternoon for a long green doji. After that, we will be under all important MAs and I expect us to stay there (welcome to bear country).
If tomorrow is green all day and reverses what was done today, then I would exit shorts and look for a major rally.
This whole right shoulder thing does not make sense to me. We have a RS already. If we go higher in a major way, I think we could even wind up testing 1220 again. I mean, the market would be wide open.
I think the markets are almost immune to the FOMC meetings. No one expects any move in interest rates until after the election or 2011.
maybe a short bump and then who knows. today was a surprise. 1080 is on the way. then what?
I meant 6%.
i cannot type worth beans
While I have no great love for BP particularly or any global corporation, it was nice to see a judge rule with some common sense against the moratorium. Oil companies will always profit but no gulf drilling would have been a shove off the cliff for our economy instead of the slow deliberate suicide march up the mountain before finally deciding to jump off the ledge.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37857843
dow jones end of day analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
What do you mean Jim? 65? you meant 6.5… right?
You will notice in the last hour the vix moved above 6%. that was a good sign for shorts. If the vix goes above 65 tomorrow something is brewing.