Looks like a gap down on Monday. On another site I said 1115 ES was a hard target, meaning it might do a meaningless non-sustained spike over that 1115 but be pulled back. While on the 15 it looks formidable, on the 120 & 240 is appears like nothing.
There are lots of reasons to think this is going down hard next week. From an Astrology point of view, this coming time period has more negative influence then 1929 did.
The news out there is super negative right now too. We should have started down this week, but it didn't happen? Maybe their plans changed after the June 4th-6th meeting, I don't know? They clearly pumped more money into the system, as pointed out on Cobra's blog, showing the institutional buying, and the liquidity inflow and outflow.
Then there is the fake print issue. They are almost always hit at some point. When is the big question? If they decide to take it down next week, will they have the ability to go back up and make a new high later this year?
I don't know if it's possible to get back up this high again, once a move down toward retesting the March 2009 lows starts. I think that once we start down below 7000-8000 range, the high is in for good.
Over the next few years I see a Dow 3000-4000, as this economy is only going to get worst, not better. So, this might be their last chance to make a new high before plunging into the abyss.
Of course that print doesn't have too be met, as it could have simply been a mistake (if you believe in accidents?). I have several downside prints that would scared the pants off of you.
So, I'm not sure what to expect next week. Sure, we will probably sell off some… that's a given. How much is the real question? Is it just enough to make a “B” leg down, in an ABC move up, or is it wave 5 down from the current high? I wish I knew?
There are lots of reasons to think this is going down hard next week. From an Astrology point of view, this coming time period has more negative influence then 1929 did.
The news out there is super negative right now too. We should have started down this week, but it didn't happen? Maybe their plans changed after the June 4th-6th meeting, I don't know? They clearly pumped more money into the system, as pointed out on Cobra's blog, showing the institutional buying, and the liquidity inflow and outflow.
Then there is the fake print issue. They are almost always hit at some point. When is the big question? If they decide to take it down next week, will they have the ability to go back up and make a new high later this year?
I don't know if it's possible to get back up this high again, once a move down toward retesting the March 2009 lows starts. I think that once we start down below 7000-8000 range, the high is in for good.
Over the next few years I see a Dow 3000-4000, as this economy is only going to get worst, not better. So, this might be their last chance to make a new high before plunging into the abyss.
Of course that print doesn't have too be met, as it could have simply been a mistake (if you believe in accidents?). I have several downside prints that would scared the pants off of you.
So, I'm not sure what to expect next week. Sure, we will probably sell off some… that's a given. How much is the real question? Is it just enough to make a “B” leg down, in an ABC move up, or is it wave 5 down from the current high? I wish I knew?
Red, if this is what I think it is, an EW4 retrace, it is amazing how quickly it can fall into the EW5 down. On another site, I called a similar situation, actually it was the B down leg of this ABC move, while others were calling for SPX 1120 to 50 and saying straight to the moon and they were in some pain after getting stopped out and losing all of their hard earned profits. One does not want to mess around with an ABC move as a long term investment strategy.
I hope you do not mind some long term Elliott Wave analysis. This is what I am getting, pretty efficient huh? Both right up snug to the .618s. My concern is that slight curling up in the WEEK MACD, now it looks like the next down will not come so soon as I originally thought. IMO we now have some sideways to go through. But we will see. What I'd like to see is some divergence, like under the purple arrow apparent somewhere.
Now, you can believe in E Waves or not believe in them. But everything has been very predictable up to now, look at that MONTH chart, Ralph's prophesies have certainly worked their magic as these wave components have stopped exactly where they should. And look at the size of that oscillator, yes, it is not done forming yet but if this was a major move the 4 oscillator would be huge (W), wouldn't it?
Drill down to a smaller scale. This recent ABC on a smaller scale is/was expected, logical, normal. At one point I felt it would fail sooner but it seems bent on fulfilling its ABC task. ABCs are killers to trade unless you are aware of what they are all about. They rob both sides equally and do a good job at it. Now, look at the oscillator, it is small in comparison to the ones to the left, typical for an EW4 one
As far as short term, we are either done to the upside or have one more run to 1124 ish, then down IMO. Anything above 1131 blows out my call. Mondays after OPEX can be brutal to the downside, all of the pent up energy during OPEX week being expounded on that day. Just one day, Monday, can force the divergence issue as Friday;s antics would form the last rounded high, and set this thing off to the downside. But I am pontificating.
Is there a way to have a synthesis of TA and other predictive sciences such as Financial Astrology so that we can better capture the trend shifts?
Here is what I mean:
Using purely TA, blogs such as Daneric's (and yourself) were decidedly bearish the week of June 7th. Daneric was asking for sub SPX 1040 targets but as soon as we had this week's mini rally his stance changed overnight to predicting high targets in the SPX 1170 area. As you can understand this is hardly conducive to profit making in trading the markets successfully.
The same with EWI. Having a bearish bias EWI was saying that the downward trend was ready to resume, yet by today's short update they finally conceded that the SPX 1130 and 1150 targets should perhaps be achieved first.
On the other hand, Ray Merriman had said that once the downtrend was complete then a possible bounce of a 1000 Dow points would occur in a very short time. The question was when the turning point would occur.
Merriman said that June 10 was such a point. Here is how he put it in his weekly updates:
“In retrospect, we now have a case where the U.S. (and many other world) stock markets made their yearly high exactly on the date that Saturn was in opposition to Uranus (April 26), and their bottom exactly on the date that Jupiter was in conjunction to Uranus. This is why Financial Astrology “kicks ass” compared to other market timing tools. This is how Financial Astrology works, and why it is extremely valuable, especially when used in combination with other studies like technical analysis, pattern recognition, and cycles’ analysis. But fortunately we live in a time when Financial Astrology is not overly used (or even considered valid) by the majority of investors, thus allowing us to continue with this “edge that all traders seek.””
Apart from the apparent lack of hubris, one might say that the June 10 to June 24th (next expected turning point date) would have been a marvelous long opportunity. (We have bounced already 600+ Dow points from the June low and perhaps we have a few hundred more to go).
So, the question is:
How can we bring these disciplines together and get an accurate picture in advance?
Here is another site which might provide some clues (even though I am not certain if it is reliable):
I think there will be a buying opportunity next week after a shallow pullback (2.5%ish) from today's highs. Bears will jump on it and short with both fists, but I think that's the wrong move.
*However*, $rut has not been able to close an important gap that every other index I can find has. It has stubbornly resisted every move so far, and could be a warning sign.
SP 500 approaching Ichimoku cloud resistance
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Looks like a gap down on Monday. On another site I said 1115 ES was a hard target, meaning it might do a meaningless non-sustained spike over that 1115 but be pulled back. While on the 15 it looks formidable, on the 120 & 240 is appears like nothing.
http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/…
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showt…
There are lots of reasons to think this is going down hard next week. From an Astrology point of view, this coming time period has more negative influence then 1929 did.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showt…
The news out there is super negative right now too. We should have started down this week, but it didn't happen? Maybe their plans changed after the June 4th-6th meeting, I don't know? They clearly pumped more money into the system, as pointed out on Cobra's blog, showing the institutional buying, and the liquidity inflow and outflow.
Then there is the fake print issue. They are almost always hit at some point. When is the big question? If they decide to take it down next week, will they have the ability to go back up and make a new high later this year?
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
I don't know if it's possible to get back up this high again, once a move down toward retesting the March 2009 lows starts. I think that once we start down below 7000-8000 range, the high is in for good.
Over the next few years I see a Dow 3000-4000, as this economy is only going to get worst, not better. So, this might be their last chance to make a new high before plunging into the abyss.
Of course that print doesn't have too be met, as it could have simply been a mistake (if you believe in accidents?). I have several downside prints that would scared the pants off of you.
So, I'm not sure what to expect next week. Sure, we will probably sell off some… that's a given. How much is the real question? Is it just enough to make a “B” leg down, in an ABC move up, or is it wave 5 down from the current high? I wish I knew?
There are lots of reasons to think this is going down hard next week. From an Astrology point of view, this coming time period has more negative influence then 1929 did.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showt…
The news out there is super negative right now too. We should have started down this week, but it didn't happen? Maybe their plans changed after the June 4th-6th meeting, I don't know? They clearly pumped more money into the system, as pointed out on Cobra's blog, showing the institutional buying, and the liquidity inflow and outflow.
Then there is the fake print issue. They are almost always hit at some point. When is the big question? If they decide to take it down next week, will they have the ability to go back up and make a new high later this year?
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
I don't know if it's possible to get back up this high again, once a move down toward retesting the March 2009 lows starts. I think that once we start down below 7000-8000 range, the high is in for good.
Over the next few years I see a Dow 3000-4000, as this economy is only going to get worst, not better. So, this might be their last chance to make a new high before plunging into the abyss.
Of course that print doesn't have too be met, as it could have simply been a mistake (if you believe in accidents?). I have several downside prints that would scared the pants off of you.
So, I'm not sure what to expect next week. Sure, we will probably sell off some… that's a given. How much is the real question? Is it just enough to make a “B” leg down, in an ABC move up, or is it wave 5 down from the current high? I wish I knew?
Red, if this is what I think it is, an EW4 retrace, it is amazing how quickly it can fall into the EW5 down. On another site, I called a similar situation, actually it was the B down leg of this ABC move, while others were calling for SPX 1120 to 50 and saying straight to the moon and they were in some pain after getting stopped out and losing all of their hard earned profits. One does not want to mess around with an ABC move as a long term investment strategy.
I hope you do not mind some long term Elliott Wave analysis. This is what I am getting, pretty efficient huh? Both right up snug to the .618s. My concern is that slight curling up in the WEEK MACD, now it looks like the next down will not come so soon as I originally thought. IMO we now have some sideways to go through. But we will see. What I'd like to see is some divergence, like under the purple arrow apparent somewhere.
Now, you can believe in E Waves or not believe in them. But everything has been very predictable up to now, look at that MONTH chart, Ralph's prophesies have certainly worked their magic as these wave components have stopped exactly where they should. And look at the size of that oscillator, yes, it is not done forming yet but if this was a major move the 4 oscillator would be huge (W), wouldn't it?
http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/…
Drill down to a smaller scale. This recent ABC on a smaller scale is/was expected, logical, normal. At one point I felt it would fail sooner but it seems bent on fulfilling its ABC task. ABCs are killers to trade unless you are aware of what they are all about. They rob both sides equally and do a good job at it. Now, look at the oscillator, it is small in comparison to the ones to the left, typical for an EW4 one
http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/…
As far as short term, we are either done to the upside or have one more run to 1124 ish, then down IMO. Anything above 1131 blows out my call. Mondays after OPEX can be brutal to the downside, all of the pent up energy during OPEX week being expounded on that day. Just one day, Monday, can force the divergence issue as Friday;s antics would form the last rounded high, and set this thing off to the downside. But I am pontificating.
Red:
Is there a way to have a synthesis of TA and other predictive sciences such as Financial Astrology so that we can better capture the trend shifts?
Here is what I mean:
Using purely TA, blogs such as Daneric's (and yourself) were decidedly bearish the week of June 7th. Daneric was asking for sub SPX 1040 targets but as soon as we had this week's mini rally his stance changed overnight to predicting high targets in the SPX 1170 area. As you can understand this is hardly conducive to profit making in trading the markets successfully.
The same with EWI. Having a bearish bias EWI was saying that the downward trend was ready to resume, yet by today's short update they finally conceded that the SPX 1130 and 1150 targets should perhaps be achieved first.
On the other hand, Ray Merriman had said that once the downtrend was complete then a possible bounce of a 1000 Dow points would occur in a very short time. The question was when the turning point would occur.
Merriman said that June 10 was such a point. Here is how he put it in his weekly updates:
“In retrospect, we now have a case where the U.S. (and many other world) stock markets made their yearly high exactly on the date that Saturn was in opposition to Uranus (April 26), and their bottom exactly on the date that Jupiter was in conjunction to Uranus. This is why Financial Astrology “kicks ass” compared to other market timing tools. This is how Financial Astrology works, and why it is extremely valuable, especially when used in combination with other studies like technical analysis, pattern recognition, and cycles’ analysis. But fortunately we live in a time when Financial Astrology is not overly used (or even considered valid) by the majority of investors, thus allowing us to continue with this “edge that all traders seek.””
Apart from the apparent lack of hubris, one might say that the June 10 to June 24th (next expected turning point date) would have been a marvelous long opportunity. (We have bounced already 600+ Dow points from the June low and perhaps we have a few hundred more to go).
So, the question is:
How can we bring these disciplines together and get an accurate picture in advance?
Here is another site which might provide some clues (even though I am not certain if it is reliable):
http://www.tradersaffiliates.com/WEEKLY%20UPDAT…
I can not tell you how demoralizing it is to fall under the spell of a bias because by the time the error is realized opportunity is gone.
Listening to TA experts stick to a trend path and then having to negate it is both wasteful and financially painful.
So, the question again is whether we can perfect the targets ahead of time by incorporating other valid signals instead of desire and hope.
I think there will be a buying opportunity next week after a shallow pullback (2.5%ish) from today's highs. Bears will jump on it and short with both fists, but I think that's the wrong move.
*However*, $rut has not been able to close an important gap that every other index I can find has. It has stubbornly resisted every move so far, and could be a warning sign.
Dow jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…