I agree, but there are plenty of reasons to remain wary, and an overconfident bull is just as vulnerable to being cut off at the knees as an overconfident bear.
As it is, I don't think sentiment is anywhere near complacent enough to support a big move down. Barring some exogenous shock, buying the dips seems the better way to go for now.
Right now, the dailies out of the June lows look like bull flags to me, though volume is low (volume wasn't anything spectacular during the 2009 bull run either, for the most part). The Russell never came close to testing its Feb. low, IYR is actually closer to its highs than its lows, $TRAN never confirmed the lows, $NYSI curling up, etc. etc. XLF parked itself on the bull side of the 200dema today, and see what OIH, one of the most despised and beaten-down sectors of the market, did while the indexes were printing their OPEX dojis.
One or two outsized selloffs could change that picture fairly quickly, but the risk/reward of playing a swing short doesn't appeal to me at present.
The market can always surprise, but the expectation of imminent collapse expressed here just hasn't been supported by the market action, IMO.
I will try to note any clustering of red candles that impede further moves up before I consider taking a short position (note the SPX dailies around the January and April tops), and when I do it will likely be hedged at first, small and ready to be abandoned if the market proves me wrong (note the action during the Nov.-Dec. sideways consolidation before the move to the January highs).
The same goes for my current longs, currently and heavily weighted toward the precious metals sector.
The markets are always showing a new face, and a successful trader needs to be willing to change his/her position if the market says its wrong. Hope is not a strategy.
I'd say it's going to be a long hot summer now… and a very boring one too. Looks like we are on our way up to DIA 118.16 for a final high, before falling into the abyss.
That's assuming we don't have some false flag event next week, or so after. Man, when this thing falls, it will never come back up again.
What a waste of my day……..Good news though. My best turnday cycle came into today not June 21st as I had been expecting. I had been counting off the April 26 intraday high instead of April 23 closing high when it once appeared. We've got the nested 1-2s to launch a downmove also. Only disappointment was that we didn't get a close below 1087 to extend the TD weekly downcount. But treasuries are on an weekly 8 upcount (it's rare for the count to extend beyond 9) so there should be some fireworks next week.
SP 500 analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
I agree, but there are plenty of reasons to remain wary, and an overconfident bull is just as vulnerable to being cut off at the knees as an overconfident bear.
You have good weekend too Rosa… I agree with you, as it looks like the bull is back for now.
Possible. Most anything's possible.
As it is, I don't think sentiment is anywhere near complacent enough to support a big move down. Barring some exogenous shock, buying the dips seems the better way to go for now.
Right now, the dailies out of the June lows look like bull flags to me, though volume is low (volume wasn't anything spectacular during the 2009 bull run either, for the most part). The Russell never came close to testing its Feb. low, IYR is actually closer to its highs than its lows, $TRAN never confirmed the lows, $NYSI curling up, etc. etc. XLF parked itself on the bull side of the 200dema today, and see what OIH, one of the most despised and beaten-down sectors of the market, did while the indexes were printing their OPEX dojis.
One or two outsized selloffs could change that picture fairly quickly, but the risk/reward of playing a swing short doesn't appeal to me at present.
The market can always surprise, but the expectation of imminent collapse expressed here just hasn't been supported by the market action, IMO.
I will try to note any clustering of red candles that impede further moves up before I consider taking a short position (note the SPX dailies around the January and April tops), and when I do it will likely be hedged at first, small and ready to be abandoned if the market proves me wrong (note the action during the Nov.-Dec. sideways consolidation before the move to the January highs).
The same goes for my current longs, currently and heavily weighted toward the precious metals sector.
The markets are always showing a new face, and a successful trader needs to be willing to change his/her position if the market says its wrong. Hope is not a strategy.
Best of luck, Red. Have a good weekend.
LOL @ the video…
As you said once, VIX is more tail than dog. Still fun to watch, though.
I'd say it's going to be a long hot summer now… and a very boring one too. Looks like we are on our way up to DIA 118.16 for a final high, before falling into the abyss.
That's assuming we don't have some false flag event next week, or so after. Man, when this thing falls, it will never come back up again.
What a waste of my day……..Good news though. My best turnday cycle came into today not June 21st as I had been expecting. I had been counting off the April 26 intraday high instead of April 23 closing high when it once appeared. We've got the nested 1-2s to launch a downmove also. Only disappointment was that we didn't get a close below 1087 to extend the TD weekly downcount. But treasuries are on an weekly 8 upcount (it's rare for the count to extend beyond 9) so there should be some fireworks next week.
A note for those who watch the $VIX:
http://dailyoptionsreport.com/blog/post/another…
Wow… I think I seen the turtle… errr the market move a whole inch today. Maybe in another month or two, he'll make it across the road.
Dividend payout, I believe.