OK, you guys know I am more bearish than anyone but Tim on SOH posted the NYSE Summation index and it has me concerned. Do you think it is relevant? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=W&yr=2…
(I lied, here's another) Monday, June 14, 2010 Brief Update The first thing I want to point out tonight is the $CPCI will be looking to go 5 for 5 in signaling short term swing tops over the past few months. I circled the readings near the 2.0 mark and showed how each instance was followed by significant weakness over the following 2 to 5 sessions. The smart money was loading up on index puts today and the ratio is once again in the range that we can expect prices to reverse and head lower…
the charts didn't come thru. scroll about 3/4's down his post
Sentiment Indicators Index option players (smart money) have also been a great indicator of late. I don't think it's a coincidence that the spikes in the $CPCI have preceded monster drops in the indexes by only a day or two. Check out the two charts below…
The 2-3% drops that have followed these spikes in the $CPCI means someone is betting big on the put side of the equation and quickly cashing in. Well worth keeping an eye on going forward.
Lastly, the equity option players (dumb money) continue to avoid put protection and I had to double and triple check this number on the CBOE. The complacency shown here is absolutely frightening given the session we saw on Friday. It's no wonder the bears can't wait for Monday's open. Nothing has me more scared for my longs than this…
I don't mean to be an alarmist but recently I way a chart showing the correlation between high $cpci and market correction within a day or two. lat 4 out of 4 times it worked
$cpci is the big boys index put/call ratio- the smart money $cpce is the dumb money -equity put/call ratio
I feel your pain my friend. It's do on die for the bears tomorrow. They need to get the market back in the falling channel, or else the bulls will just take out the 1100-1105 resistance on the next surge up.
Great post Red, I'm recovering from a hangover from partying too much in Montreal. I'm glad BP took a hit today since I'm loaded up on BP puts but my SPY puts are getting killed so far. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. Good luck to all.
It sure looks that way Ben. Dip then rally, exactly what I expect to happen, and so does everyone else. But will it? I really don't know at this point, but I do believe everyone has given up on the crash for now.
Everyone is now expecting that right shoulder to carve out first, and then another sell off. I just have to wonder now, since everyone was expecting a crash that didn't happen, and now everyone is expecting a right shoulder… will the market be so nice to allow everyone to go short at the shoulder?
OK, you guys know I am more bearish than anyone but Tim on SOH posted the NYSE Summation index and it has me concerned. Do you think it is relevant?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=W&yr=2…
(I lied, here's another) Monday, June 14, 2010
Brief Update
The first thing I want to point out tonight is the $CPCI will be looking to go 5 for 5 in signaling short term swing tops over the past few months. I circled the readings near the 2.0 mark and showed how each instance was followed by significant weakness over the following 2 to 5 sessions. The smart money was loading up on index puts today and the ratio is once again in the range that we can expect prices to reverse and head lower…
The point: The $cpci spike much higher yesterday. This is very bearish….see below
(I've said enough)
I found it (I don't mean to get people all worked up, but rationally you should take a look at this)
To elaborate: the following comes from
http://www.patternprofits.net/2010/06/weekly-wr…
the charts didn't come thru. scroll about 3/4's down his post
Sentiment Indicators
Index option players (smart money) have also been a great indicator of late. I don't think it's a coincidence that the spikes in the $CPCI have preceded monster drops in the indexes by only a day or two. Check out the two charts below…
The 2-3% drops that have followed these spikes in the $CPCI means someone is betting big on the put side of the equation and quickly cashing in. Well worth keeping an eye on going forward.
Lastly, the equity option players (dumb money) continue to avoid put protection and I had to double and triple check this number on the CBOE. The complacency shown here is absolutely frightening given the session we saw on Friday. It's no wonder the bears can't wait for Monday's open. Nothing has me more scared for my longs than this…
Breadth & Sentiment Charts Courtesy of http://stockcharts.com
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$cpci
I don't mean to be an alarmist but recently I way a chart showing the correlation between high $cpci and market correction within a day or two. lat 4 out of 4 times it worked
$cpci is the big boys index put/call ratio- the smart money
$cpce is the dumb money -equity put/call ratio
Red, check out my new blog format, additional comments appreciated.
Hope all is well on your side….these fake waves are painful
is that a midnight full moon doji on caterpillar then?
I feel your pain my friend. It's do on die for the bears tomorrow. They need to get the market back in the falling channel, or else the bulls will just take out the 1100-1105 resistance on the next surge up.
Great post Red, I'm recovering from a hangover from partying too much in Montreal. I'm glad BP took a hit today since I'm loaded up on BP puts but my SPY puts are getting killed so far. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. Good luck to all.
LOL…
It sure looks that way Ben. Dip then rally, exactly what I expect to happen, and so does everyone else. But will it? I really don't know at this point, but I do believe everyone has given up on the crash for now.
Everyone is now expecting that right shoulder to carve out first, and then another sell off. I just have to wonder now, since everyone was expecting a crash that didn't happen, and now everyone is expecting a right shoulder… will the market be so nice to allow everyone to go short at the shoulder?