Speculative shorts are a small minority of the market action. What drives markets lower is liquidating longs. If the down days going forward show decreasing volume and fail to breach key price levels, holding net short is not the odds-on play, imo.
Personally, I don't see the bull case as in the free and clear, but the same goes for the bears, and while the bulls have had a good week, I don't think sentiment and positioning have shifted back to bullish extremes.
I notice a lot of people here are playing for more downside with short-dated, OTM naked puts. Speaking from experience, that is a poor choice in this sort of indecisive action and falling $VIX. Gains from that sort of play need to be taken, at least partially, when they arrive.
Yea I got killed today. The drop in volitility was already hurting but then rally back up just killed it more. Sad things is I picked up some more TZA June $7 calls when we broke the bottom trendline around 1:15 central, so shame on me. Closed out my FAZ and SDS calls for some massive losses, but picked up 200 shares of SSO at the close to hedge against my TZA calls. This absolutely sucks. Even on days like today when we had a decent gap down, the bears couldn't hold.
I'm liking cobras call…we get through the 200sma then we goto 117…but getting through the 200 will not be easy…this line up with your call for next wk being for the bulls…
I kinda trusted the cycles but they seem to have bottomed earlier than most thought.
Looks like the RS crowd may have the edge. If we go above 1100 My bet is they are correct and i get out of my shorts and add more longs for a quick ride above 1120.
i got out of 50% of my short positions today but it was not enough. TNA and SSO protected some of the rest.
Dow jones end of day analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
around 10320 maximum
What's the target for that, San?
Speculative shorts are a small minority of the market action. What drives markets lower is liquidating longs. If the down days going forward show decreasing volume and fail to breach key price levels, holding net short is not the odds-on play, imo.
Personally, I don't see the bull case as in the free and clear, but the same goes for the bears, and while the bulls have had a good week, I don't think sentiment and positioning have shifted back to bullish extremes.
I notice a lot of people here are playing for more downside with short-dated, OTM naked puts. Speaking from experience, that is a poor choice in this sort of indecisive action and falling $VIX. Gains from that sort of play need to be taken, at least partially, when they arrive.
tells me either the bears are out or something funny going on…with all thats going wrong noway do we go up…not yet anyway…but such is life…
not me…or Monica…I'm short till we break the 200 then I go long and pick up the little I lost…
Yea I got killed today. The drop in volitility was already hurting but then rally back up just killed it more. Sad things is I picked up some more TZA June $7 calls when we broke the bottom trendline around 1:15 central, so shame on me. Closed out my FAZ and SDS calls for some massive losses, but picked up 200 shares of SSO at the close to hedge against my TZA calls. This absolutely sucks. Even on days like today when we had a decent gap down, the bears couldn't hold.
I'd say we just took out all the shorts now… Nothing left in the market but bulls.
I'm liking cobras call…we get through the 200sma then we goto 117…but getting through the 200 will not be easy…this line up with your call for next wk being for the bulls…
Markets could care about news.
I kinda trusted the cycles but they seem to have bottomed earlier than most thought.
Looks like the RS crowd may have the edge. If we go above 1100 My bet is they are correct and i get out of my shorts and add more longs for a quick ride above 1120.
i got out of 50% of my short positions today but it was not enough. TNA and SSO protected some of the rest.