FTSE bounced off its 20ema this morning, and looks ready for another rally. If (when) it fails, we are in the clover. I expect we will rally with them for at least an hour, might be a good time to stock up.
Up until yesterday's very artificial rally, spiralcharts.com was pointing towards 6/12 as a cyclical low, not a high.
I wonder if it will really be the low? That would make for a fun day, for sure.
“08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.30. Stock futures have fallen under a sharp flurry of selling following the release of the latest monthly retail sales figures.”
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The guys who bought an assload of futures to spark yesterday's air rally sold them overnight…at a profit.
Ben, nothing in life is for certain, and that goes for the performance of your puts. I have puts myself (rather a lot of them, plus ETFs) that I hope to make money on in the next couple of days, but there is risk involved. For me, the possible loss is about 10% of the potential gain. I think there's about a 95% chance of the market going seriously south in the next six weeks, so to me this is a good risk/reward ratio.
Look at a chart of SPX for the last half of 2007 and the first part of 2008, and you'll see the type of terrain we are negotiating. Sharp rallies and plunges are all part of the game, and they are unpredictable. We could have a rally as big as a 50% retracement, which would suck.
The most important point I am trying to make is that we are moving randomly within a channel; once we leave the channel, the direction will be fairly certain. We can exit through either the top or the bottom. Some of us think that a bear market is more likely at this time given the state of our economy and liquidity in the market, and others are bulls.
Practically every day, I see three possibilities:
1. It will tank today. For this reason, I am short at all times, though in varying degrees.
2. It will jump out of the channel and have an extended rally that could take weeks and cost me a lot of money, but when it happens I will cover and may even go long to recoup my losses.
3. It will jump out of the channel and FAKE THE START of the extended rally, but in fact tank within days. This is why I will not abandon my short position until we have at least two consecutive closes over EMA 20. You will see these in 2007, particularly 11/13/07 IIRC.
There is a fourth possibility, that of a new bull market (or substantial bear market rally, to be precise) as happened 3/09 and burned Atilla. I don't think this is going to happen because (a) our imperfect bottom is technically suspicious and leaves no one with any money except the market makers, and (b) it's been done already.
With June puts expiring next week, I am treating them as radioactive and will dump them ASAP. I think that sometime before OEX we will see a big red candle, and I will sell some at EOD and the balance the next morning. I do not care whether that will be at 1060, 1050, 1040, or 875; if we see that pattern, that's when the June puts will go.
As we are at the top of the channel, I will seek to buy some July puts today. Should have done that yesterday, but I was in shock from the rally, which in retrospect I think was a manipulated bear squeeze that may actually bring a sharp drop quicker.
If this rally fails, it will mean that aninverse H&S pattern 6 weeks in the making is toast.
Something that may wilt those upper lips.
Very cool, San.
Today's really looking up for bears, I think.
Dow jones ascending wedge had negative divergence
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
FTSE bounced off its 20ema this morning, and looks ready for another rally. If (when) it fails, we are in the clover. I expect we will rally with them for at least an hour, might be a good time to stock up.
Up until yesterday's very artificial rally, spiralcharts.com was pointing towards 6/12 as a cyclical low, not a high.
I wonder if it will really be the low? That would make for a fun day, for sure.
SP 500 Fibonacci levels in daily chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
my 30, 1h and 2h all at high levels pointing down…
http://screencast.com/t/NGNhZTQ2NTYt
This from Yahoo:
“08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.30. Stock futures have fallen under a sharp flurry of selling following the release of the latest monthly retail sales figures.”
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The guys who bought an assload of futures to spark yesterday's air rally sold them overnight…at a profit.
Yeah, I agree.
It means we're still in the channel, still in good shape.
Ben, nothing in life is for certain, and that goes for the performance of your puts. I have puts myself (rather a lot of them, plus ETFs) that I hope to make money on in the next couple of days, but there is risk involved. For me, the possible loss is about 10% of the potential gain. I think there's about a 95% chance of the market going seriously south in the next six weeks, so to me this is a good risk/reward ratio.
Look at a chart of SPX for the last half of 2007 and the first part of 2008, and you'll see the type of terrain we are negotiating. Sharp rallies and plunges are all part of the game, and they are unpredictable. We could have a rally as big as a 50% retracement, which would suck.
The most important point I am trying to make is that we are moving randomly within a channel; once we leave the channel, the direction will be fairly certain. We can exit through either the top or the bottom. Some of us think that a bear market is more likely at this time given the state of our economy and liquidity in the market, and others are bulls.
Practically every day, I see three possibilities:
1. It will tank today. For this reason, I am short at all times, though in varying degrees.
2. It will jump out of the channel and have an extended rally that could take weeks and cost me a lot of money, but when it happens I will cover and may even go long to recoup my losses.
3. It will jump out of the channel and FAKE THE START of the extended rally, but in fact tank within days. This is why I will not abandon my short position until we have at least two consecutive closes over EMA 20. You will see these in 2007, particularly 11/13/07 IIRC.
There is a fourth possibility, that of a new bull market (or substantial bear market rally, to be precise) as happened 3/09 and burned Atilla. I don't think this is going to happen because (a) our imperfect bottom is technically suspicious and leaves no one with any money except the market makers, and (b) it's been done already.
With June puts expiring next week, I am treating them as radioactive and will dump them ASAP. I think that sometime before OEX we will see a big red candle, and I will sell some at EOD and the balance the next morning. I do not care whether that will be at 1060, 1050, 1040, or 875; if we see that pattern, that's when the June puts will go.
As we are at the top of the channel, I will seek to buy some July puts today. Should have done that yesterday, but I was in shock from the rally, which in retrospect I think was a manipulated bear squeeze that may actually bring a sharp drop quicker.
Hope this helps!
I don't mean to be a hog but this is interesting from Atilla: this am
If you see ES opening at or below 1081 tomorrow at 9:30
it will mean todays rally will likely be completely retraced by the end of Monday
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