They are only marginally up compared to a real trend change and can swing from these levels quickly. i do not get excited until they are above 12%.on way other the other.
The market is struggling at the teal line. Odds favour a breakout to the upside, and subsequently a retest of the April highs. But if it fails at the teal line, then it is going down. The market will do what it wants to do, all the models and predictions not withstanding. I hope the market would follow the models and make life easier for us. But I have learned my lesson. There is only one rule in this game: The market will do what it wants to do, and your best bet to survival is to follow its lead.
In short, my forecast models say we are going up, short term, and die when the snow comes. My trend models say the market is still deciding.
If the SPX gets the death cross of the moving averages… there won't be a new high. They'll be bounces along the way, but the new trend will be down. Just keep that in mind.
There is nothing to say we couldn't go higher tomorrow, but I'm just looking at past history. We seem to have the high early in the week, and sell off into the end of the week.
But, I will admit that the daily chart is now turning back up, and could continue pushing the market up again tomorrow? However, I will remain short (I must like pain or something?)
where is the teal line now? emini s&p
They are only marginally up compared to a real trend change and can swing from these levels quickly. i do not get excited until they are above 12%.on way other the other.
VIX is up today, despite the markets' attempt to rally. What does that tell you?
Mmm, very possible. That would demonstrate that the fabled breadth is coming apart.
My short ETFs are taking off prior to any breakout in SPX. I am tempted to cover, lol.
Its interesting that r2k is leading the down move in a substantial manner. Is this the beginning of a flight from the little guys?
Ok. gotcha.
Pain is good. But moolah is better. LOL
TZA looks like it is breaking out, just set a new HOD including pre-market.
Whoa.
The market is struggling at the teal line. Odds favour a breakout to the upside, and subsequently a retest of the April highs. But if it fails at the teal line, then it is going down. The market will do what it wants to do, all the models and predictions not withstanding. I hope the market would follow the models and make life easier for us. But I have learned my lesson. There is only one rule in this game: The market will do what it wants to do, and your best bet to survival is to follow its lead.
In short, my forecast models say we are going up, short term, and die when the snow comes. My trend models say the market is still deciding.
Sorry if this doesn't help anyone. I suck.
If the SPX gets the death cross of the moving averages… there won't be a new high. They'll be bounces along the way, but the new trend will be down. Just keep that in mind.
Well SC,
There is nothing to say we couldn't go higher tomorrow, but I'm just looking at past history. We seem to have the high early in the week, and sell off into the end of the week.
But, I will admit that the daily chart is now turning back up, and could continue pushing the market up again tomorrow? However, I will remain short (I must like pain or something?)