TNA was a Wait today, was down 3.9% today, and remains a Wait for tomorrow.
TZA was a possible sell today, was up 4% today, and is a possible sell again for tomorrow. The buy price was $6.10, and TZA closed at $7.63, up 25.1% since the buy.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to: SLV(silver) UCO(2x Oil) GS ERY (-3x energy)
The list to avoid: TNA (3x $RUT) UUP(US Dollar) USO(oil) DRI GOOG DIA SCO (-2x Oil), DTO (-3x oil) DZZ (-2x Gold)
The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow: AAPL AMZN DRV (-3x RE) EPV (-2x Europe)
The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow : IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE) EWG(Germany) EWQ(France) EWU(England) SRS (-2x RE) FAZ (-3x Financials)
The following are quite likely buys tomorrow: IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT) GLD (gold), UGL (2x Gold) ERX(3x energy) SPY QQQQ, QLD (2x QQQQ) EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow: RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT), TZA (-3x $RUT) SPXU (-3x $SPX) QID (-2x QQQQ) DXD (-2x DOW30)
Summary: A bit more Bearish Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Likely sell of TZA, avoid TNA
Yeah, it might give the bulls a chance to get out? This market is going down hard after the 60 and 15 minute charts go into over bought territory, and start turning back down.
At that point, I see a wave 3 of 3 down coming. That's what the charts tell me… but of course no one knows for sure. The ideal thing to happen tomorrow is for some good consumer confidence numbers and retail sales data to cause a gap up in the morning.
I like to see that happen, so I can get short at a great spot…
We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA. TZA opened up 1.5%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 4.5% at it’s high, and closed up 4.0%.
AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait today. TNA was down today, so TNA will be a Wait again for tomorrow.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a possible sell today, but TZA was up, so TZA was not sold. TZA will probably be a hold for tomorrow. The buying price was $6.10, and TZA closed at $7.63, up 25.0% in 5 days.
Volume for TZA today was 17% below it’s 1 month average. Bad for TZA. Volume for TNA today was right at it’s 1 month average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 5.3% with TZA up 4.0%. *****Big divergence.
TZA had been down 1 day, up 3, down 1, and now up 1 day. Choppy, and went no where the last 2 days. Not good for TZA.
The low for TZA was from 19 days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $7.22, 36.2% higher. Good for TZA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA fell from 54.7 to 56.1 (+1.4) while TZA was up 4%. No divergence. Good for TZA.
MACD fastline & slowline both above zero rising Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX fell and closed lower below the top Bollinger band. The fast MACD line is flat, the slow line is still rising. This is the 3rd day of a 3-day sequence ending in a $RUT buy signal. Sure looks like a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a red candle that closed above but near the lower Bollinger Band. MACD is falling sharply. Hard to read.
Last Thursday: On the NYSE, down volume was 73 times the up volume. Usually, the market bounces after a number this large. Maybe not the next day, but the day after that. Last Friday: On the NYSE, up volume was 9 times the down volume. A nice bounce, as expected (for today or tomorrow). Today: Expected, but did not get a bounce in $RUT. (Good for TZA)
TZA had a much lower high & higher low & higher close (Good for TZA)
Money flow for the Total Stock Market: $ 1,568 million flowing out of the market 2 days ago. $13,442 million flowing out of the market yesterday. $ 232 million flowing out of the market today. Good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
I f it was not for the vixes i would now say we are headed to 1021 on S&P.
Although is I see your points I am not seeing where the strength to pop will come from.. i hope it happens cause I am light on my positions and would like an add opportunity.
the NASDAQ roll over today has me wondering. it was the market strength until last hour. and it really capitulated.
The 60 minute chart is still pushing up, (but looking like it might rollover right here?) But, the 15 minute chart was overbought all day today, which didn't give the bulls enough power to break out of the falling channel.
Right now, the 15 minute chart has finally rolled down into oversold territory and should be turning back up into tomorrow. I expect a small gap open to get out of the channel, and a push to 1100 spx.
At that point, I think both charts will be overbought and selling will happen into the close, and continue all the way to Friday.
Remember, once both the 60 and 15 peak tomorrow, and start back down, they will have the daily, weekly and monthly behind them… pushing down harder and faster. It should be a wave 3 of 3 when that starts.
The whole key is to wait until all 5 charts are all pointing in the same direction. Bulls should bail out when the charts peak, and then become bears.
It's looking bad right now, but I still think it will turn back up tomorrow for one finally high… how high is unknown? Call in a bear squeeze and bull trap… as this sell off doesn't look like it yet.
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA was a Wait today, was down 3.9% today, and remains a Wait for tomorrow.
TZA was a possible sell today, was up 4% today, and is a possible sell again for tomorrow. The buy price was $6.10, and TZA closed at $7.63, up 25.1% since the buy.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to:
SLV(silver)
UCO(2x Oil)
GS
ERY (-3x energy)
The list to avoid:
TNA (3x $RUT)
UUP(US Dollar)
USO(oil)
DRI
GOOG
DIA
SCO (-2x Oil), DTO (-3x oil)
DZZ (-2x Gold)
The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow:
AAPL
AMZN
DRV (-3x RE)
EPV (-2x Europe)
The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow :
IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
EWG(Germany)
EWQ(France)
EWU(England)
SRS (-2x RE)
FAZ (-3x Financials)
The following are quite likely buys tomorrow:
IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT)
GLD (gold), UGL (2x Gold)
ERX(3x energy)
SPY
QQQQ, QLD (2x QQQQ)
EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow:
RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT), TZA (-3x $RUT)
SPXU (-3x $SPX)
QID (-2x QQQQ)
DXD (-2x DOW30)
Summary: A bit more Bearish
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Likely sell of TZA, avoid TNA
Yeah, it might give the bulls a chance to get out? This market is going down hard after the 60 and 15 minute charts go into over bought territory, and start turning back down.
At that point, I see a wave 3 of 3 down coming. That's what the charts tell me… but of course no one knows for sure. The ideal thing to happen tomorrow is for some good consumer confidence numbers and retail sales data to cause a gap up in the morning.
I like to see that happen, so I can get short at a great spot…
Red, I saw that same print.
We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA.
TZA opened up 1.5%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 4.5% at it’s high, and closed up 4.0%.
AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait today. TNA was down today, so TNA will be a Wait again for tomorrow.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a possible sell today, but TZA was up, so TZA was not sold. TZA will probably be a hold for tomorrow. The buying price was $6.10, and TZA closed at $7.63, up 25.0% in 5 days.
Volume for TZA today was 17% below it’s 1 month average. Bad for TZA.
Volume for TNA today was right at it’s 1 month average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 5.3% with TZA up 4.0%. *****Big divergence.
TZA had been down 1 day, up 3, down 1, and now up 1 day. Choppy, and went no where the last 2 days. Not good for TZA.
The low for TZA was from 19 days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $7.22, 36.2% higher. Good for TZA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA fell from 54.7 to 56.1 (+1.4) while TZA was up 4%. No divergence. Good for TZA.
MACD fastline & slowline both above zero rising Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX fell and closed lower below the top Bollinger band. The fast MACD line is flat, the slow line is still rising. This is the 3rd day of a 3-day sequence ending in a $RUT buy signal. Sure looks like a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a red candle that closed above but near the lower Bollinger Band. MACD is falling sharply. Hard to read.
Last Thursday: On the NYSE, down volume was 73 times the up volume. Usually, the market bounces after a number this large. Maybe not the next day, but the day after that.
Last Friday: On the NYSE, up volume was 9 times the down volume. A nice bounce, as expected (for today or tomorrow).
Today: Expected, but did not get a bounce in $RUT. (Good for TZA)
TZA had a much lower high & higher low & higher close (Good for TZA)
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 1,568 million flowing out of the market 2 days ago.
$13,442 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
$ 232 million flowing out of the market today.
Good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, Good for TZA for tomorrow
Some hope for the bulls tomorrow…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
This is an afterhours print of 109.12 spy, and could be the final high tomorrow before all 5 charts line up pointing DOWN.
Carl at day’s end:
1050-1080 estimate for today (30 points)
1071–1088.75 actual range today (17.75 points )
Market was 8-21 points above Carl’s range.
For the past 10 days, average actual range is 24.6 points
Trades: No Trades (only one trade in the past 10 days)
Grade: C (lost no money)
I f it was not for the vixes i would now say we are headed to 1021 on S&P.
Although is I see your points I am not seeing where the strength to pop will come from.. i hope it happens cause I am light on my positions and would like an add opportunity.
the NASDAQ roll over today has me wondering. it was the market strength until last hour. and it really capitulated.
I know… probably should have got some puts, but I just have a gut feeling that it's a bear trap.
Just keep in mind that we closed below containment. I think if we open below it, it's bye bye and quick.
The 60 minute chart is still pushing up, (but looking like it might rollover right here?) But, the 15 minute chart was overbought all day today, which didn't give the bulls enough power to break out of the falling channel.
Right now, the 15 minute chart has finally rolled down into oversold territory and should be turning back up into tomorrow. I expect a small gap open to get out of the channel, and a push to 1100 spx.
At that point, I think both charts will be overbought and selling will happen into the close, and continue all the way to Friday.
Remember, once both the 60 and 15 peak tomorrow, and start back down, they will have the daily, weekly and monthly behind them… pushing down harder and faster. It should be a wave 3 of 3 when that starts.
The whole key is to wait until all 5 charts are all pointing in the same direction. Bulls should bail out when the charts peak, and then become bears.
It's looking bad right now, but I still think it will turn back up tomorrow for one finally high… how high is unknown? Call in a bear squeeze and bull trap… as this sell off doesn't look like it yet.