If we are running to 12,000, why did the analysts cut the SPY p/e from 14.4, down to 13.42? ( or 7%, that's huge) That's what they have at Yahoo. I think we stay volatile.
TZA opened down 14.6%, and the opening gap was not filled. TZA was down 11.7% at it’s high, and closed down 16.7%.
An earlier gap up from $5.53 to $5.77 remains unfilled. Today’s gap from $7.61 to $6.72 remains unfilled.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA. AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait today, and TNA rose quite a bit, so TNA could be a possible buy for tomorrow. AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, and TZA was down quite a bit, so TZA could be a possible sell for tomorrow. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.34, so this trade is now up 14.4%.
Volume for TZA today was 50% of that of 2 days ago, but still more than usual.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 21.97% with TZA down 16.7%. No divergence.
TZA had been up 4 days in a row, but down big today. Bad for TZA.
The low for TZA was from eight days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $6.33, 19% higher. Good for TZA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA dropped from 51 to 44 while TZA dropped 16%. Bad for TZA.
MACD is below zero, but has been moving up steadily lately. Fast and slow lines were up today. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Yesterday,the monster white candle closed far and away above the spot that I would normally consider to far and above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD was wildly & vertically rising. Today, the small white candle closed well below the upper Bollinger Band – completing step #2 of a 3 step $RUT buy signal. MACD fast line was flat today. Ok for TZA for the time being.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long white candle closed well above the lower Bollinger band. MACD has rolled over (down) and is still falling hard. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): The white candle today was entirely above the bottom Bollinger band after closing below it last time. Could be a sign that TZA will be falling, but this will be the 3rd such candle in the past 10 trading days, and for the 2 previous like this, TZA kept rising. Not clear.
Up volume on the NYSE today yesterday was 29 times the down volume. Last time for an UP spike this was last July 15th or so. In that case, following days were up days. I suppose this monster UP spike might also be an indication of a down day tomorrow. Hard to read.
TZA had a lower high, lower low and much lower close – Bad for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market: $ 874 million flowing into the market 2 days ago. $ 198 million flowing out of the market yesterday. $ 2,881 million flowing into the market today. Bad for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, there is a feeling of choppiness and no good feel for good or bad for TZA.
Actually, from the look of things, the $NYMO looks similar to the way it did on Feb 1rst or 2nd. If history repeats, that means we may/may not have a big up day tomorrow but in the next few days we should make a lower low than we had last week with a move from there to new highs. Compare the timing of these two charts.
Or then again, none of the above! Never seen the $NYMO look as oversold as it did yesterday but the MACD still haven't crossed which means there is more room for the bearish case.
Or maybe we still get to 116.80 in the morning and go down. I don't consider a fake print to be accurate if we go to it and continue significantly through it, nor do I consider it valid if we don't quite reach it. It has to get there and bounce off. I will be covering my shorts if we go through 116.80.
If we are running to 12,000, why did the analysts cut the SPY p/e from 14.4, down to 13.42? ( or 7%, that's huge) That's what they have at Yahoo. I think we stay volatile.
I think the volatility stays here for awhile.
This is a fairly reliable signal.
TWM chart, I think I have to try a long at 18.5 or so.
TZA opened down 14.6%, and the opening gap was not filled. TZA was down 11.7% at it’s high, and closed down 16.7%.
An earlier gap up from $5.53 to $5.77 remains unfilled.
Today’s gap from $7.61 to $6.72 remains unfilled.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait today, and TNA rose quite a bit, so TNA could be a possible buy for tomorrow.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, and TZA was down quite a bit, so TZA could be a possible sell for tomorrow. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.34, so this trade is now up 14.4%.
Volume for TZA today was 50% of that of 2 days ago, but still more than usual.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 21.97% with TZA down 16.7%. No divergence.
TZA had been up 4 days in a row, but down big today. Bad for TZA.
The low for TZA was from eight days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $6.33, 19% higher. Good for TZA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA dropped from 51 to 44 while TZA dropped 16%. Bad for TZA.
MACD is below zero, but has been moving up steadily lately. Fast and slow lines were up today. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Yesterday,the monster white candle closed far and away above the spot that I would normally consider to far and above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD was wildly & vertically rising. Today, the small white candle closed well below the upper Bollinger Band – completing step #2 of a 3 step $RUT buy signal. MACD fast line was flat today. Ok for TZA for the time being.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long white candle closed well above the lower Bollinger band. MACD has rolled over (down) and is still falling hard. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): The white candle today was entirely above the bottom Bollinger band after closing below it last time. Could be a sign that TZA will be falling, but this will be the 3rd such candle in the past 10 trading days, and for the 2 previous like this, TZA kept rising. Not clear.
Up volume on the NYSE today yesterday was 29 times the down volume. Last time for an UP spike this was last July 15th or so. In that case, following days were up days. I suppose this monster UP spike might also be an indication of a down day tomorrow. Hard to read.
TZA had a lower high, lower low and much lower close – Bad for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 874 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
$ 198 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
$ 2,881 million flowing into the market today.
Bad for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, there is a feeling of choppiness and no good feel for good or bad for TZA.
Well I think getting the direction right there is crucial, I still have painful memories of going short at March lows.
Actually, from the look of things, the $NYMO looks similar to the way it did on Feb 1rst or 2nd. If history repeats, that means we may/may not have a big up day tomorrow but in the next few days we should make a lower low than we had last week with a move from there to new highs. Compare the timing of these two charts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC#chart3…
Or then again, none of the above! Never seen the $NYMO look as oversold as it did yesterday but the MACD still haven't crossed which means there is more room for the bearish case.
At this point I only care that it goes lower from here to 111.
That's good thinking. Up to 116.80 or 117 even number play, and then sell off to either 113.52 or 111.30…
If tomorrow is the ritual day, I think it makes sense that we make new highs before plummeting.
Or maybe we still get to 116.80 in the morning and go down. I don't consider a fake print to be accurate if we go to it and continue significantly through it, nor do I consider it valid if we don't quite reach it. It has to get there and bounce off. I will be covering my shorts if we go through 116.80.