Note the pattern of higher lows on $RMZ (RMZ.X on Google). This is a chart of one of the Real Estate indexes. At this point, the move down today looks corrective, not impulsive. That's why I bought DRN today (I could have gotten a better price had I waited longer, though).
TNA was a possible Buy for today, was down today, and has a Wait signal for tomorrow.
TZA was a possible Sell for today, and was up big today. In spite of that, the possible Sell continues tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.03, up 8.8% since the buy.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, only these are to hold on to: SLV(silver), QQQQ
The list to avoid: IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT), TNA (3x $RUT), USO(oil), ERX(3x energy), AMZN, DRI, GOOG, DIA, SPY, EWU(England), EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are possible buys tomorrow: IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), GS
The following are possible sells tomorrow: GLD (gold), UCO(2x Oil), AAPL, EWG(Germany), EWQ(France)
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Possibly Sell TZA
TZA opened up 4.3%. TZA was up 11% at the high, and closed up 9.2%.
Yesterday’s gap down today from $5.93 to $5.83 was filled today. A gap up today from $5.53 to $5.77 remains unfilled.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA. AmericanBulls had TNA with a possible Buy today, but TNA fell, so TNA will return to a Wait. AmericanBulls had TZA with a possible Sell today, but TZA was up, so TZA will return to a Hold. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.04, so this trade is now up 9.0%.
Volume for TZA today was about 50% above the average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 18.3% with TZA up 9.2%. No divergence.
TZA has been up, then down, then up, then down, then up today. Chop, but drifting up. Good for TZA.
The low for TZA was from five days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $5.77, 8.8% higher. Good for TZA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA rose from 46.92 to 55.9 – a nice gain to match the gain in TZA. A reading over 50 is good for TZA.
MACD on the monthly chart had been a flat line at -0.50 for 10 days. Now has been moving up a bit, and up more today. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today’s long white candle closed far and away above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD is aggressively rising. This could be the 1st day of a 3-day $RUT buy signal. Good for TZA for the time being.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long red candle fell below the mid Bollinger line (20 day moving average). The last time $RUT fell below the the 20 day moving average, it fell for days. MACD has rolled over (down). Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): The red candle today was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band(This happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell generally for 9 days). This also happened 5 days ago and was followed by two up days. This also happened 2 days ago and was followed by one up day. Seems to happen a lot lately, but it’s really rare. The close below the lower Bollinger Band is considered a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA, for a day or two.
Down volume on the NYSE today was 15 times the up volume. In the recent past this has been followed by an up day either the next day or the day after that.
TZA had a higher high, higher low and much much higher close – Good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market: $ 108 million flowing into the market 2 days ago on a down day. $ 1,375 million flowing into the market yesterday. $ 1,736 million flowing out of the market today. Good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
It cuts both ways, Monica. The low volatility lowers the premium you receive on the short leg, but also lowers the cost you pay on the long leg.
Doing spread is a lazy way to deal with the option Greek parameters. One leg offsets those of the other. You only need the market to move to the spot in due time. You spare yourself the concern about time decay and volatility crush etc.
A spread is not as sexy as holding the right front month options when the market moves in your direction in a big way.
Just the past weeks,many naked puts have doubled in one day and got cut in half the next. In theory you can mint coins just trading them back and forth. The spread, otoh was moving like molasses going up hill in January. The positive part was that it didn't go underwater much and thus saved a lot of maalox.
I did ok. Closed out shorts at 100%, and various stocks for 10 -30%. It has not been as efficient as it should and I left money on the table which could have been harvested with more aggressive trading. I shall do better… 🙂
Thanks Sun… it's always good to have you around. I look forward to you DIA 118.16 trendline chart tomorrow. Of course we first have too figure out if 115 stops this sell off, or if it's going deeper to 107 area. Time will tell us… hopefully.
See above chart of $RMZ (the index that DRV/DRN trade).
Interrupting the bear party, here:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
Note the pattern of higher lows on $RMZ (RMZ.X on Google). This is a chart of one of the Real Estate indexes. At this point, the move down today looks corrective, not impulsive. That's why I bought DRN today (I could have gotten a better price had I waited longer, though).
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA was a possible Buy for today, was down today, and has a Wait signal for tomorrow.
TZA was a possible Sell for today, and was up big today. In spite of that, the possible Sell continues tomorrow. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.03, up 8.8% since the buy.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, only these are to hold on to:
SLV(silver), QQQQ
The list to avoid:
IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT), TNA (3x $RUT), USO(oil), ERX(3x energy), AMZN, DRI, GOOG, DIA, SPY, EWU(England), EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are possible buys tomorrow:
IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), GS
The following are possible sells tomorrow:
GLD (gold), UCO(2x Oil), AAPL, EWG(Germany), EWQ(France)
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Possibly Sell TZA
Same to you!
TZA opened up 4.3%. TZA was up 11% at the high, and closed up 9.2%.
Yesterday’s gap down today from $5.93 to $5.83 was filled today.
A gap up today from $5.53 to $5.77 remains unfilled.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
AmericanBulls had TNA with a possible Buy today, but TNA fell, so TNA will return to a Wait.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a possible Sell today, but TZA was up, so TZA will return to a Hold. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $6.04, so this trade is now up 9.0%.
Volume for TZA today was about 50% above the average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 18.3% with TZA up 9.2%. No divergence.
TZA has been up, then down, then up, then down, then up today. Chop, but drifting up. Good for TZA.
The low for TZA was from five days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $5.77, 8.8% higher. Good for TZA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA rose from 46.92 to 55.9 – a nice gain to match the gain in TZA. A reading over 50 is good for TZA.
MACD on the monthly chart had been a flat line at -0.50 for 10 days. Now has been moving up a bit, and up more today. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today’s long white candle closed far and away above the upper Bollinger Band. MACD is aggressively rising. This could be the 1st day of a 3-day $RUT buy signal. Good for TZA for the time being.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long red candle fell below the mid Bollinger line (20 day moving average). The last time $RUT fell below the the 20 day moving average, it fell for days. MACD has rolled over (down). Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): The red candle today was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band(This happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell generally for 9 days). This also happened 5 days ago and was followed by two up days. This also happened 2 days ago and was followed by one up day. Seems to happen a lot lately, but it’s really rare. The close below the lower Bollinger Band is considered a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA, for a day or two.
Down volume on the NYSE today was 15 times the up volume. In the recent past this has been followed by an up day either the next day or the day after that.
TZA had a higher high, higher low and much much higher close – Good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 108 million flowing into the market 2 days ago on a down day.
$ 1,375 million flowing into the market yesterday.
$ 1,736 million flowing out of the market today.
Good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks good for TZA.
It cuts both ways, Monica. The low volatility lowers the premium you receive on the short leg, but also lowers the cost you pay on the long leg.
Doing spread is a lazy way to deal with the option Greek parameters. One leg offsets those of the other. You only need the market to move to the spot in due time. You spare yourself the concern about time decay and volatility crush etc.
A spread is not as sexy as holding the right front month options when the market moves in your direction in a big way.
Just the past weeks,many naked puts have doubled in one day and got cut in half the next. In theory you can mint coins just trading them back and forth. The spread, otoh was moving like molasses going up hill in January. The positive part was that it didn't go underwater much and thus saved a lot of maalox.
I did ok. Closed out shorts at 100%, and various stocks for 10 -30%. It has not been as efficient as it should and I left money on the table which could have been harvested with more aggressive trading. I shall do better… 🙂
Thanks Sun… it's always good to have you around. I look forward to you DIA 118.16 trendline chart tomorrow. Of course we first have too figure out if 115 stops this sell off, or if it's going deeper to 107 area. Time will tell us… hopefully.
Congratulations to Red, Monica, SC & everybody else who got paid today!!!!
That's what I like to hear… thanks.
those are trades getting processed from yesterday's close which was right @ that level
HUGE damage to the IWM,
2 out of the last 6 days 100+ million volume
IWM volume today 4 million shares shy of 2.5.2010 low
$NDX reversal setup gives TA enthusiasts wet dreams