TNA had a Wait signal for today, was up today, and is a possible (unlikely) Buy tomorrow morning.
TZA had a Hold signal for today, was down today, and is a possible (unlikely) Sell tomorrow morning. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.54, flat since the buy.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, only these are to hold on to:
Basically, by dumping GS huge on that first day, and holding the market up, they can get GS to sell off 10%, but hold the market back to a lot less… maybe 5%?
Well, I have 115.00 spy as an important support level, that should provide at least a multiple day bounce. If we only get a 6 TD event, then that's the bottom and it's back to the usual slow grind higher every day, for the next several months until we reach DOW 11,816 (probably late summer or early fall).
I believe that your yellow trendline is also coming in around 115.00 as well. I don't know if we will sell off below it to 107.38 spy (or your 107.82/Dow 10,000), or not… but I'm pretty sure that it's not going to happen before this May OPX.
There are too many short positions to pay out on, and you know they aren't going to give away free money… at least not to the average Joe trader. Maybe a sell off down to 115.00 by the EOW, or early next week.
Then a grind up into OPX to wipe out all those put contracts. After OPX… well that's the 64 thousand dollar question?
May 5th =6 TD's below SPY's TL May 16th=12 TD's below SPY's TL
2.20.2009 – closing low came 12 TD's after break of TL 7.2.2009 – closing low came 6 TD's after break of TL 1.22.2010 – closing low came 12 TD's after break of TL
TZA opened down 2%. TZA was down 1.7% at it's high, and closed down 6.7%.
A gap down today from $5.93 to $5.83 was not filled.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA. AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait, & TNA was up today, so TNA likely will be a possible Buy tomorrow morning. AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold, & TZA was down today, so TZA likely will be a possible Sell tomorrow morning. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.53, so this trade is now flat.
Volume for TZA today was average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 4.8% with TZA down 6.7%. No divergence.
TZA was up two days, and then down two, up one and now down one. Chop. Hard to read good or bad.
The low for TZA was from five days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $5.52, 4.1% higher. Good for TZA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA rose from 46.74 to 46.92 – a gain of 0.18 while TZA fell 6.7%, a Divergence. Good for TZA.
MACD on the monthly chart had been a flat line at -0.50 for 10 days. Now is moving up a bit, and flat today. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today’s long red candle closed below the upper Bollinger Band after closing well above it yesterday. MACD is aggressively rising. This could be the 2nd day of a 3-day $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA, perhaps.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long white candle bounced from the mid Bollinger line (20 day moving average). The last time $RUT fell to touch the 20 day moving average, it bounced for days. MACD has rolled over (down). Bad for TZA, perhaps.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): yesterday, the black candle today was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band(This happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell generally for 9 days). This also happened 4 days ago and was followed by two up days. The close below the lower Bollinger Band is considered a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA.
TZA had a higher low, lower high and much much lower close – Bad for TZA, perhaps.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market: $ 1,276 million flowing into the market today on an up day 2 days ago. $ 108 million flowing into the market yesterday on a down day. $ 1,375 million flowing into the market today. Bad for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks confusing for TZA. (If I absolutely needed to pick good or bad, since I own TZA right now, I would go with good.)
I went short as well, but I'm not yet sure what I should have done.
Carl doesn't hold overnight unless he has confidence, but frankly, the market has been surprising Carl so much lately, being opposite of whatever he is doing seems the better play.
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA had a Wait signal for today, was up today, and is a possible (unlikely) Buy tomorrow morning.
TZA had a Hold signal for today, was down today, and is a possible (unlikely) Sell tomorrow morning. The TZA buy price was $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.54, flat since the buy.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, only these are to hold on to:
GLD (gold), SLV(silver), UCO(2x Oil), AAPL, QQQQ, EWG(Germany), EWQ(France)
The list to avoid: EWU(England), EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are possible buys tomorrow:
IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT), TNA (3x $RUT) , IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE), ERX(3x energy), AMZN, DRI, GOOG, GS
Just one possible sell: USO(oil)
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Possible buy on TNA, possible sell on TZA
Basically, by dumping GS huge on that first day, and holding the market up, they can get GS to sell off 10%, but hold the market back to a lot less… maybe 5%?
Well, I have 115.00 spy as an important support level, that should provide at least a multiple day bounce. If we only get a 6 TD event, then that's the bottom and it's back to the usual slow grind higher every day, for the next several months until we reach DOW 11,816 (probably late summer or early fall).
I believe that your yellow trendline is also coming in around 115.00 as well. I don't know if we will sell off below it to 107.38 spy (or your 107.82/Dow 10,000), or not… but I'm pretty sure that it's not going to happen before this May OPX.
There are too many short positions to pay out on, and you know they aren't going to give away free money… at least not to the average Joe trader. Maybe a sell off down to 115.00 by the EOW, or early next week.
Then a grind up into OPX to wipe out all those put contracts. After OPX… well that's the 64 thousand dollar question?
$SPX
4.26.2010 high came 80 CD after 2.5.2010 low
9.23.2009 high came 77 CD after 7.8.2009 low
10.2.2009 low came 9 CD after 9.23.2009 high
9 CD after 4.26.2010 = 5.5.2010
on my 15 minute chart., IWM is usually the one with a clearer signal, than SPX,DIA,QQQQ, mostly.
the only chart that really matters right now
GS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45764…
closed the day sandwiched between light purple & white containment
should GS print 134's, be cautious for those who are highly levered short
the only thing that makes me think it might be 6TD is the way the operators are debasing GS
It's identical to the GLD debasment starting on 12.4.2009, we're currently on 12.18.2009
Can I make my wish come true? Hmmm… 12!
May 5th or May 16th
May 5th =6 TD's below SPY's TL
May 16th=12 TD's below SPY's TL
2.20.2009 – closing low came 12 TD's after break of TL
7.2.2009 – closing low came 6 TD's after break of TL
1.22.2010 – closing low came 12 TD's after break of TL
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45758…
TZA opened down 2%. TZA was down 1.7% at it's high, and closed down 6.7%.
A gap down today from $5.93 to $5.83 was not filled.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait, & TNA was up today, so TNA likely will be a possible Buy tomorrow morning.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold, & TZA was down today, so TZA likely will be a possible Sell tomorrow morning. TZA bought at $5.54. TZA closed today at $5.53, so this trade is now flat.
Volume for TZA today was average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 4.8% with TZA down 6.7%. No divergence.
TZA was up two days, and then down two, up one and now down one. Chop. Hard to read good or bad.
The low for TZA was from five days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $5.52, 4.1% higher. Good for TZA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA rose from 46.74 to 46.92 – a gain of 0.18 while TZA fell 6.7%, a Divergence. Good for TZA.
MACD on the monthly chart had been a flat line at -0.50 for 10 days. Now is moving up a bit, and flat today. Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today’s long red candle closed below the upper Bollinger Band after closing well above it yesterday. MACD is aggressively rising. This could be the 2nd day of a 3-day $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA, perhaps.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s long white candle bounced from the mid Bollinger line (20 day moving average). The last time $RUT fell to touch the 20 day moving average, it bounced for days. MACD has rolled over (down). Bad for TZA, perhaps.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): yesterday, the black candle today was entirely below the bottom Bollinger band(This happened Jan 22nd, and at that time $RUT fell generally for 9 days). This also happened 4 days ago and was followed by two up days. The close below the lower Bollinger Band is considered a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA.
TZA had a higher low, lower high and much much lower close – Bad for TZA, perhaps.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 1,276 million flowing into the market today on an up day 2 days ago.
$ 108 million flowing into the market yesterday on a down day.
$ 1,375 million flowing into the market today.
Bad for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks confusing for TZA. (If I absolutely needed to pick good or bad, since I own TZA right now, I would go with good.)
I went short as well, but I'm not yet sure what I should have done.
Carl doesn't hold overnight unless he has confidence, but frankly, the market has been surprising Carl so much lately, being opposite of whatever he is doing seems the better play.
Much better on the color 🙂