Well, the 117.50 spy level is good support and it should bounce from that level for at least intraday, maybe a day or two.
The next level is 115.00, and that is really good support. It's a place to go long for several days.
Of course that doesn't mean anything until we breakdown from this triple bottom we just formed. I could see us bouncing a little on Monday, then selling down to one of those level's by Friday.
Then rally into opx, as there are a lot of puts on the spy that they won't want to pay out on.
Just guessing here as the wildcard is always some bad news story being released and causing a big dump day.
We might just trade in a rectangle range like November-December. Burns both put and call holders. I think commodities will give the game away, however. Copper is down and oil is up. Who wins?
Barring bad news, both bullish (wave 3 of 5 up) and bearish (wave 2 retrace of wave 3 down) counts call for more upside, first. Oil has been up huge over the last few days, and JNK (junk bonds) have been heavily bought as the indexes have looked bearish. I personally think this is a bear trap, and we need to set the wave 5 new high before we go down. Either way, we go up first.
1202-1215 estimate for today (13 points) 1182.75–1205.50 actual today (22.75 points) Never seen Carl miss the low by 20 points & the high by 10 points before.
Trades: In /ES at 1197.25 & 1201.50 yesterday, sold both today at 1197.50 (loss of 3.75 points)
Grade: D (worst range estimate ever and also lost some money)
If it bounces, I do believe it will be short lived. It might only last in the morning, and not even make it too the close? But yes, the selling coming!
Well, the 117.50 spy level is good support and it should bounce from that level for at least intraday, maybe a day or two.
The next level is 115.00, and that is really good support. It's a place to go long for several days.
Of course that doesn't mean anything until we breakdown from this triple bottom we just formed. I could see us bouncing a little on Monday, then selling down to one of those level's by Friday.
Then rally into opx, as there are a lot of puts on the spy that they won't want to pay out on.
Just guessing here as the wildcard is always some bad news story being released and causing a big dump day.
We might just trade in a rectangle range like November-December. Burns both put and call holders. I think commodities will give the game away, however. Copper is down and oil is up. Who wins?
Congrats!
I'm kind of agreeing with you that until we take out this triple bottom now, we might just go back up and be trading sideways for awhile.
Barring bad news, both bullish (wave 3 of 5 up) and bearish (wave 2 retrace of wave 3 down) counts call for more upside, first. Oil has been up huge over the last few days, and JNK (junk bonds) have been heavily bought as the indexes have looked bearish. I personally think this is a bear trap, and we need to set the wave 5 new high before we go down. Either way, we go up first.
I think Carl was right, just early. I think Monday will be a huge bull day.
Take a look at the chart for JNK (junk bonds). Very close to a new 52-week high today. If risk appetite is still here, up we go.
Carl at day’s end:
1202-1215 estimate for today (13 points)
1182.75–1205.50 actual today (22.75 points)
Never seen Carl miss the low by 20 points & the high by 10 points before.
Trades:
In /ES at 1197.25 & 1201.50 yesterday, sold both today at 1197.50 (loss of 3.75 points)
Grade: D (worst range estimate ever and also lost some money)
Interesting video. He guessing pretty good so far…
If it bounces, I do believe it will be short lived. It might only last in the morning, and not even make it too the close? But yes, the selling coming!
Agree. but overbought extended way too long, I think it is time to stretch the oversold line now…