Yeah well, in time like this, I have an Atilla answer for that. “back then I forecasted it, BUT the market DIDN”T listen” ! haha.. such arrogance
Here is what happened. The adverse conditions have persisted since March. By March 26, the technical picture has evolved to bearish. I initiated short positions. The following week, the market started to flipflop around there. I bought my April Puts by April 1. By April 5-6, the market technical pitcture has changed, eventhough the inverse conditions that have historically preceded a 10% decline continued to persist. I blew the TZA out (at a loss, naturally) and kept he April for lottery play. And it has turned out exactly like all my lottery tickets, worthless. lol
I bought some May put spreads for another set of lottery play. I am risking 5% theoretically, but limiting that to half that in practice, ie,via stoploss. The april put spread costed peanut. About 1.5% Didn't care.
The May put was bought as first skirmish, not as main attack. But it does call into the question of my using input from sources other than my own. But who am I to argue with people who have been trading almost longer than I have lived, and have PhDs, and decades of data to back them up? Of course not. So I bought some May puts and now needing another shift at McDick AND Burger King.
The puzzling, or not so puzzling part is the reversal starting on April 5-6. Every star was lined up for the perfect storm toward the end of March. Then, nothing. Market turned around after Easter and didn't look back. Now that is not that unusual. Many cases of that. A minor hiccup, and then a resumption of the plunge in earnest. The resumption can start with at most 2-3 days of warning. So far, no sign of that.
Back in the early 90's I was trading some. I had and account with Charles Schwab. I worked at night, so I would go into their office everyday and hang out chatting with the other traders that were there watching the tape.
Back then, a live feed cost a fortune, and they had 4 computer's in the office setup with a live feed. So, the traders would use them all day to trade with. They had the green text, and were in DOS. Quite different then today.
I had a friend who traded all those tech stocks and eventually lost $260,000 on them. She played Cisco a lot, as well as Juniper.
It was fun while it lasted, but I eventually lost my small trading account, and quit trading. I had a job, so it wasn't the end of the world. She… however, died several years later.
I think it will be different this time Sundancer but I have been wrong many a time before. It all depends on what happens when we get that VIX gap fill.
It's opx week, so I'm sure it will hold. Plus, the recession is over now Sun, haven't you heard? Everyone is making money again and home prices have recovered.
$DJI is @ it's next inflection point on a couple setups
$DJI currently has 4 consecutive higher closes than opens on the daily. In the last 333 trading days, 5 out of the last 6 times when the $DJI made it to 5 consecutive higher closes, it went on to a 6th.
$DJI is currently coiling on the back of another daily containment pt. This is the same setup that led to the 3.11 & 3.29 upward thrust. Will this time be different? http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45201…
Yeah well, in time like this, I have an Atilla answer for that. “back then I forecasted it, BUT the market DIDN”T listen” ! haha.. such arrogance
Here is what happened. The adverse conditions have persisted since March. By March 26, the technical picture has evolved to bearish. I initiated short positions. The following week, the market started to flipflop around there. I bought my April Puts by April 1. By April 5-6, the market technical pitcture has changed, eventhough the inverse conditions that have historically preceded a 10% decline continued to persist. I blew the TZA out (at a loss, naturally) and kept he April for lottery play. And it has turned out exactly like all my lottery tickets, worthless. lol
I bought some May put spreads for another set of lottery play. I am risking 5% theoretically, but limiting that to half that in practice, ie,via stoploss. The april put spread costed peanut. About 1.5% Didn't care.
The May put was bought as first skirmish, not as main attack. But it does call into the question of my using input from sources other than my own. But who am I to argue with people who have been trading almost longer than I have lived, and have PhDs, and decades of data to back them up? Of course not. So I bought some May puts and now needing another shift at McDick AND Burger King.
The puzzling, or not so puzzling part is the reversal starting on April 5-6. Every star was lined up for the perfect storm toward the end of March. Then, nothing. Market turned around after Easter and didn't look back. Now that is not that unusual. Many cases of that. A minor hiccup, and then a resumption of the plunge in earnest. The resumption can start with at most 2-3 days of warning. So far, no sign of that.
Huge green candle on the VIX right now that looked totally unnatural. Went from 15.71 to 15.99 in the blink of an eye.
That's a really good point. The only bear ETFs that have been up ytd are the 2x short grain etfs.
Back in the early 90's I was trading some. I had and account with Charles Schwab. I worked at night, so I would go into their office everyday and hang out chatting with the other traders that were there watching the tape.
Back then, a live feed cost a fortune, and they had 4 computer's in the office setup with a live feed. So, the traders would use them all day to trade with. They had the green text, and were in DOS. Quite different then today.
I had a friend who traded all those tech stocks and eventually lost $260,000 on them. She played Cisco a lot, as well as Juniper.
It was fun while it lasted, but I eventually lost my small trading account, and quit trading. I had a job, so it wasn't the end of the world. She… however, died several years later.
partly like it's 1999!!!!!!!
PCLN@$990
those were the days, you think people are bullish now, that bullgasm ended with a big bang
I think it will be different this time Sundancer but I have been wrong many a time before. It all depends on what happens when we get that VIX gap fill.
It's opx week, so I'm sure it will hold. Plus, the recession is over now Sun, haven't you heard? Everyone is making money again and home prices have recovered.
🙂
$DJI is @ it's next inflection point on a couple setups
$DJI currently has 4 consecutive higher closes than opens on the daily. In the last 333 trading days, 5 out of the last 6 times when the $DJI made it to 5 consecutive higher closes, it went on to a 6th.
$DJI is currently coiling on the back of another daily containment pt. This is the same setup that led to the 3.11 & 3.29 upward thrust. Will this time be different?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45201…
Carl’s morning call:
June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1193 – 1204. It looks like the ES will reach 1212 before a break of as much as 20 points develops.
1185 -1195.75 actual yesterday (10.75 points)
1200 high last night
1193-1204 estimate for today (11 points)
1198 currently, so estimate is -5 to +6 from here (neutral)
Futures (/ES) just touched 1200 and fell back.
Carl has long been calling for 1200.
I have an old note on my /ES chart. Can't recall why I wrote it, but it says: SC says 1120 before 1200