As you can see, BB signals work *eventually* but often lose in the short run. What I think I'm seeing on SPG recently is a truncated 5th wave. We'll find out soon enough.
That would be a 7.5% drop in just 3 days. On the $DJUSRE, that's just above the 50 day MA. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would really need some sort of powerful motive wave down (3 of 3?) and it would have to start Monday.
No worries SC. Sadly enough, I am down about 43%. I am imagining that if we make it to 1191, I will then be down about 50%. I lost about 10% right off bat on an option trade. Started shorting agressively with 3X bear ETFs around 1080 so that's around probably where I need the market to go to regain 85% or so of that loss. You don't have to point out my insaneness or folly, I am well aware of it at this point. I will have to decide whether to swing trade along the way or just hold and pray 🙂 I am due with a baby in 5 weeks plus have a 3 year old so I won't be able to spend a lot of time focusing on the market anymore after that.
I tend to follow SPG (the #1 holding) on a daily basis. It is the “best of breed” mall owner. I also watch DDR (the weakest) and CBL (my local mall owner). I don't pay as much attention to (but still do follow from time to time) the homebuilders as well. SPG has already given a bollinger band sell signal, and tends to lead the $DJUSRE.
If you don't mind my asking. How much are you down, percentage wise? It would help to figure out what the realistic time frame and market movement needed to recoup the draw down.
the good news for those with bearish positions is the next ritual timing sequence comes in @ 4/4/2010 which is a Sunday, so the trading day immediately before/after 4/4 would provide an opportunity for a reversal. So either 4/1 or 4/5.
the origin of this sequence is the 3/24/2000 $SPX ATH
Thanks Sundancer. If that is the case, then I will just have to grin and bear it at this point. It will suck to sit through a 3 day weekend after reaching my lowest account balance in a year but so be it.
CBL chart:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
As you can see, there is a Head and Shoulders on this chart (many of the REITs are similar, which is why DRV seems to have an IHS set up).
SPG chart:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folder…
As you can see, BB signals work *eventually* but often lose in the short run. What I think I'm seeing on SPG recently is a truncated 5th wave. We'll find out soon enough.
That would be a 7.5% drop in just 3 days. On the $DJUSRE, that's just above the 50 day MA. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would really need some sort of powerful motive wave down (3 of 3?) and it would have to start Monday.
50 on IYR seems to be strong support.
No worries SC. Sadly enough, I am down about 43%. I am imagining that if we make it to 1191, I will then be down about 50%. I lost about 10% right off bat on an option trade. Started shorting agressively with 3X bear ETFs around 1080 so that's around probably where I need the market to go to regain 85% or so of that loss. You don't have to point out my insaneness or folly, I am well aware of it at this point. I will have to decide whether to swing trade along the way or just hold and pray 🙂 I am due with a baby in 5 weeks plus have a 3 year old so I won't be able to spend a lot of time focusing on the market anymore after that.
I tend to follow SPG (the #1 holding) on a daily basis. It is the “best of breed” mall owner. I also watch DDR (the weakest) and CBL (my local mall owner). I don't pay as much attention to (but still do follow from time to time) the homebuilders as well. SPG has already given a bollinger band sell signal, and tends to lead the $DJUSRE.
Did you guys look at the top 20 holdings of IYR and see how the individual stocks are doing?
If you don't mind my asking. How much are you down, percentage wise? It would help to figure out what the realistic time frame and market movement needed to recoup the draw down.
Looks like the high that day was 1527. Not sure I understand it, but I'll heed what you are saying.
the good news for those with bearish positions is the next ritual timing sequence comes in @ 4/4/2010 which is a Sunday, so the trading day immediately before/after 4/4 would provide an opportunity for a reversal. So either 4/1 or 4/5.
the origin of this sequence is the 3/24/2000 $SPX ATH
Thanks Sundancer. If that is the case, then I will just have to grin and bear it at this point. It will suck to sit through a 3 day weekend after reaching my lowest account balance in a year but so be it.