I know what Dow theory is. But theory is just that. Examine the data and see for yourself. I already showed two cases of failure in my previous post above.
TNA is now a SELL. There was a low reliability SELL-IF signal last evening, which was confirmed today when TNA (after a gap up) dropped to yesterday’s closing price ($55.61). The candlestick today was a Long Black Candlestick (strong selling pressure).
TZA is now a BUY. There was a low reliability BUY-IF signal last evening, which was confirmed today when TZA (after a gap down) rose to yesterday’s closing price ($7.04). The candlestick today was a White Candlestick (normal buying pressure).
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning: Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14 Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05 Buy at $7.04 today
Summary of $RUT based ETFs: Hold: IWM (1x) [I think AB is just wrong here. It’s a sell also (to me)] Confirmed SELL: UWM (2x), TNA (3x) Confirmed BUY: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x)
Until we get to that 118.17 print! We shall see. McClellan showing we go south now (since we clearly crossed the 0 line). But perhaps they bring it to a triple top after we reach the oversold levels on the $NYMO. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
My first reply to this was eaten by Disqus, which is really unfortunate because the context in the markets were very different than now.
I do appreciate the longer term view on these correlations, and I understand the caveats — the market never cares what wave we're in or what this-or-that indicator says.
Like any trader, I'm looking for an edge. I will examine any theory or indicator that seems to work.
See item #4. Stock market averages must confirm one another, and transports are the example given.
Was Dow Theory designed to be used in a short time frame like I'm using it? I doubt it. Did it work in January, anyway? Yes. Could IYT rocket to a new high tomorrow? Sure. But … IYT was scoffing at the strong move today, and looks to be pointing downward.
Disclaimer: short via my (very small) trading account, 33% long in my retirement account.
Your examples are excellent, and clearly show why Dow Theory is just a theory.
I hope I am not the one being sacrificed!
I know what Dow theory is. But theory is just that. Examine the data and see for yourself. I already showed two cases of failure in my previous post above.
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA is now a SELL. There was a low reliability SELL-IF signal last evening, which was confirmed today when TNA (after a gap up) dropped to yesterday’s closing price ($55.61). The candlestick today was a Long Black Candlestick (strong selling pressure).
TZA is now a BUY. There was a low reliability BUY-IF signal last evening, which was confirmed today when TZA (after a gap down) rose to yesterday’s closing price ($7.04). The candlestick today was a White Candlestick (normal buying pressure).
Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04 today
Summary of $RUT based ETFs:
Hold: IWM (1x) [I think AB is just wrong here. It’s a sell also (to me)]
Confirmed SELL: UWM (2x), TNA (3x)
Confirmed BUY: RWM (-1x), TWM (-2x), TZA (-3x)
Action for tomorrow: none
Although I suppose we could still bounce from here as we did in late November after we crossed the 0 line.
Until we get to that 118.17 print! We shall see. McClellan showing we go south now (since we clearly crossed the 0 line). But perhaps they bring it to a triple top after we reach the oversold levels on the $NYMO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$nymo
Oh great, that means we go higher again! When will they stop with the fake prints?!
At the time I wrote that, DRV was at 8.05 ish. Luckily for me, it went up about 5.5% since.
LOL… the operators always give me a good laugh
the sacrifice ritual is next SUN-day
My first reply to this was eaten by Disqus, which is really unfortunate because the context in the markets were very different than now.
I do appreciate the longer term view on these correlations, and I understand the caveats — the market never cares what wave we're in or what this-or-that indicator says.
Like any trader, I'm looking for an edge. I will examine any theory or indicator that seems to work.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Theory
See item #4. Stock market averages must confirm one another, and transports are the example given.
Was Dow Theory designed to be used in a short time frame like I'm using it? I doubt it. Did it work in January, anyway? Yes. Could IYT rocket to a new high tomorrow? Sure. But … IYT was scoffing at the strong move today, and looks to be pointing downward.
Disclaimer: short via my (very small) trading account, 33% long in my retirement account.