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Yep – the tough part is figuring out what to do in the interim if it blows through that number. Thanks for all your info Sundancer.

***if*** the $RUT closes the month above 679.75 then the bears worst nightmare will come true, but March 31st is a ways off

Sundancer,

What about this XLF

Carl at day’s end:

1123-1139 estimate today for /ES (16 points, June Expiry)
1134 -1145.50 actual today (11.5 points)
Missed by a mile.

Trades:
In /ES at 1140.50, out at 1137.50 (loss of 3 points)
In /ES at 1139.75, out at 1137.50 (loss of 2.25 points)

Grade: D – (could have been worse)

“…..***if*** we are going to turn down …”

Bravo! That is a key point. A lot of market participants just go hogwild when their key points are reached, and forgot about there is a ” ***if**** ” clause. Damn the fine prints… LOL.

But, if the RUT runs to 690, won't it indicate that is no longer a back test and we won't turn down?

$690 sounds good after they run the stops above 679.75 area
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44227

***if*** we are going to turn down then we're not far off from a turning point as we're running out of room to run,

remember this chart of the $SPX monthly
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43590

after they run the stops above 679.75, RUT is out of room if this is a backetest
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44227

JPM had a target of $690 on the RUT for 2010. Almost there.
Sundancer, do you think this is it or more up to go

Basically, you are saying that the “short term top” is in, and now we are just looking for a reason to sell… some bad news to blame it on, right?