The sooner we realize that the market will do what it wants and there is no point standing in front of a runaway train with boatload of drunken fools on it, the less stressful this business becomes. 🙂
When I first started in this business, my boss shared with me two things. 1. There is nothing sacred on Wall Street. People will sell their grandma down the river in a heartbeat. 2. There is no point in being dead right. If you stand infront of a runaway train, you will be right, but you will also be dead. Being dead right is not going to do you any good.
If you keep shorting a runaway market, eventually you will be right. But by then, you would have used up a large chunk of your capital, if not all of it. You would have little to capitalize on the eventual collapse.
If your calls are not working, it isnt b/c TA doesn't work or the market is manipulated. The fault is NOT external. It is most likely internal. You have to ask yourself what it is that you are missing. The market is always right. It isn't b/c TA doesn't work. It is the set of TA you used that is not working. Your job is to find out why and maybe even necessary to discard your old set of TA and acquire new tools. There is a reason for it, and it isnt b/c Goldman Sachs screwing with you. Goldman Sachs has always been screwing with us. That didnt just started recently.
A lot of the tools/patterns people use, are garbage. These garbage tools/patterns are garbage, b/c they suffer from N= too small, and degree of freedom being too low. People look at too small a data set and derive conclusions that fail miserably in real time application. Instead of finding the truth, they blame some external factors.
I am not saying this to make people feed bad for being caught on the wrong side of the market. I am saying it, in the hope that someone may find it useful. People didn't get trap on the wrong side of the market by accident. If anything, people CHOSE to be on the opposite side of the market intentionally.
Very interesting. What does Sun Ritual mean. A down day Monday would probably fool the most people. since it seems it is always pump Mutual Fund Monday.
TZA sure is cheap at $7.69. I need to do my TNA daily post. I always feel more comfortable after I've looked at things from several angles.
Something Dreadwin said — TZA bottoming is a process, rather than a V bottom. Seems like that means there will be several days where TZA can be bought at $7.71 (price change!) before it moves higher. Maybe.
i don't think I would want to be long over the weekend, the SPY currently has 6 consecutive gap ups
for those that have been following my posts for the last month, you've heard me talking about the 1127.38 gap a million times well today it finally got filled
the XLF hit is de-leverage pt. of 15.01 @ the open this morning then went on to it's containment pt. @ 15.22 and closed there, GS also went and tested 2 containment pts. and was rejected by both of them
another Sun ritual was completed today with the $RUT, notice where the closed the index at, I pointed out yesterday that the low of the $SPX yesterday was 1116.66, today the high of FAZ was 16.66, no folks it's not a coincidence
it's also not a coincidence that my handle has Sun in it
The sooner we realize that the market will do what it wants and there is no point standing in front of a runaway train with boatload of drunken fools on it, the less stressful this business becomes. 🙂
When I first started in this business, my boss shared with me two things. 1. There is nothing sacred on Wall Street. People will sell their grandma down the river in a heartbeat. 2. There is no point in being dead right. If you stand infront of a runaway train, you will be right, but you will also be dead. Being dead right is not going to do you any good.
If you keep shorting a runaway market, eventually you will be right. But by then, you would have used up a large chunk of your capital, if not all of it. You would have little to capitalize on the eventual collapse.
If your calls are not working, it isnt b/c TA doesn't work or the market is manipulated. The fault is NOT external. It is most likely internal. You have to ask yourself what it is that you are missing. The market is always right. It isn't b/c TA doesn't work. It is the set of TA you used that is not working. Your job is to find out why and maybe even necessary to discard your old set of TA and acquire new tools. There is a reason for it, and it isnt b/c Goldman Sachs screwing with you. Goldman Sachs has always been screwing with us. That didnt just started recently.
A lot of the tools/patterns people use, are garbage. These garbage tools/patterns are garbage, b/c they suffer from N= too small, and degree of freedom being too low. People look at too small a data set and derive conclusions that fail miserably in real time application. Instead of finding the truth, they blame some external factors.
I am not saying this to make people feed bad for being caught on the wrong side of the market. I am saying it, in the hope that someone may find it useful. People didn't get trap on the wrong side of the market by accident. If anything, people CHOSE to be on the opposite side of the market intentionally.
That's impressive.
Carl at days end:
1126-1140 estimate today for /ES
1126 -1138.75 actual today
Pretty close, for guessing.
Trades: Sold two units of /ES today
In today at 1126.50 out at 1137.50 (gain of 11)
In yesterday at 1119.50 out today at 1137.50 (gain of 16)
Grade: Brilliant
Very interesting. What does Sun Ritual mean. A down day Monday would probably fool the most people. since it seems it is always pump Mutual Fund Monday.
TZA sure is cheap at $7.69. I need to do my TNA daily post. I always feel more comfortable after I've looked at things from several angles.
Something Dreadwin said — TZA bottoming is a process, rather than a V bottom. Seems like that means there will be several days where TZA can be bought at $7.71 (price change!) before it moves higher. Maybe.
i don't think I would want to be long over the weekend, the SPY currently has 6 consecutive gap ups
for those that have been following my posts for the last month, you've heard me talking about the 1127.38 gap a million times well today it finally got filled
the XLF hit is de-leverage pt. of 15.01 @ the open this morning then went on to it's containment pt. @ 15.22 and closed there, GS also went and tested 2 containment pts. and was rejected by both of them
another Sun ritual was completed today with the $RUT, notice where the closed the index at, I pointed out yesterday that the low of the $SPX yesterday was 1116.66, today the high of FAZ was 16.66, no folks it's not a coincidence
it's also not a coincidence that my handle has Sun in it
Nice Job.
update 4:01 est
I know the operators too damn well
XLF closed @ 15.22
GS HOD was .06 above the purple line and closed below both the brown & purple lines
When you ppsted his stuff this morning I was thinking the same thing. TZA is tempting at this level?
Nope. Watched like a dummy.
Had it in my head that this big surge wasn't going to happen. Not sure where the notion came from, but it kept me on the sidelines.
I remember thinking: What is Carl doing?
Answer: he was doing just fine.