Market reverses when the selling is done. It seems that all the reluctant, gunshy, burned manytimes bears finally threw in the towel this Friday. The fear of missing the PeeThree became too unbearable, not to mention the dreaded Black Monday. It is very likely that 1040 is the short term bottom. Data indicates that Nasdaq and foreignstocks will lead a rally, first to 1100, then to 1150. Pee Three will have to wait till Summer. 🙂
One step at a time. If and when the rally materializes, any decent trendfollowing indicators will pick it up. It isn't that people fail to pick up and follow a trend. It is their bias that causes them to dismiss a new trend. 🙂 Dont get married to your Pee Three. lol
That's exactly what they want you to think… that the bull is back. Don't believe it! All indicators are pointing down. This is headed to the low 900's within the next couple of months.
Yes Michigan… I agree. EW is really hard to predict before the move happens, but easy after it already has. A person could look at this move, and think that the bottom is in, and it's back to rallying again.
I don't think so… everything is rolling over now. This is only the start of a larger move down. This move will fail and trap a lot of bulls long… thinking that Monday's are always bullish! What if we crash Monday afternoon? That would surprise a lot of bulls…
It seemed today was more then Short Cov – looked like buying came in pretty big. Could it set up a possible 50% or 62% retrace of entire move Spy 110-112?
Red, thanks for your insights (and terrific pictures!!!). I think today's sharp bounce was a trap for bulls. Some market observers felt that late day bounce was a short covering rally. I tend to think too many people following EW and moving markets up and down in anticipation of different waves.
We've started a larger wave 3 down, that should have 5 smaller waves in it. The smaller wave 1 was from about 1105 to 1044 today. Smaller wave 2 up shouldn't go past 1080 on Monday, and then a smaller wave 3 down inside of a larger wave 3 is coming next. I'd get back short Monday on the bounce up. We're not done with the selling yet moon.
1063 was a big event closing above – seems like we have reach a short term bottom. We will see exited my shorts today – will watch. Hope your right red as I have no dog in fight right now. Did not wish to be a pig when down was down 130 or so points I bailed. A good 2 days have a good weeked
I waited all day for that bounce and didn't think it was coming. So, I got in at a lower price then it closed at, but I'll still be ok. I can't see anymore then 1080 tops on Monday, and then more selling. Hold on tight girl… it's the pop before the drop!
Market reverses when the selling is done. It seems that all the reluctant, gunshy, burned manytimes bears finally threw in the towel this Friday. The fear of missing the PeeThree became too unbearable, not to mention the dreaded Black Monday. It is very likely that 1040 is the short term bottom. Data indicates that Nasdaq and foreignstocks will lead a rally, first to 1100, then to 1150. Pee Three will have to wait till Summer. 🙂
One step at a time. If and when the rally materializes, any decent trendfollowing indicators will pick it up. It isn't that people fail to pick up and follow a trend. It is their bias that causes them to dismiss a new trend. 🙂 Dont get married to your Pee Three. lol
Low 900s yes, but probably need to wait until summer. my oppinion.
That's exactly what they want you to think… that the bull is back. Don't believe it! All indicators are pointing down. This is headed to the low 900's within the next couple of months.
Yes Michigan… I agree. EW is really hard to predict before the move happens, but easy after it already has. A person could look at this move, and think that the bottom is in, and it's back to rallying again.
I don't think so… everything is rolling over now. This is only the start of a larger move down. This move will fail and trap a lot of bulls long… thinking that Monday's are always bullish! What if we crash Monday afternoon? That would surprise a lot of bulls…
Red
It seemed today was more then Short Cov – looked like buying came in pretty big. Could it set up a possible 50% or 62% retrace of entire move Spy 110-112?
Perhaps Monday tells the tale
thanks for your insight and blog
Red, thanks for your insights (and terrific pictures!!!).
I think today's sharp bounce was a trap for bulls. Some market observers felt that late day bounce was a short covering rally. I tend to think too many people following EW and moving markets up and down in anticipation of different waves.
We've started a larger wave 3 down, that should have 5 smaller waves in it. The smaller wave 1 was from about 1105 to 1044 today. Smaller wave 2 up shouldn't go past 1080 on Monday, and then a smaller wave 3 down inside of a larger wave 3 is coming next. I'd get back short Monday on the bounce up. We're not done with the selling yet moon.
1063 was a big event closing above – seems like we have reach a short term bottom. We will see exited my shorts today – will watch. Hope your right red as I have no dog in fight right now. Did not wish to be a pig when down was down 130 or so points I bailed.
A good 2 days have a good weeked
I waited all day for that bounce and didn't think it was coming. So, I got in at a lower price then it closed at, but I'll still be ok. I can't see anymore then 1080 tops on Monday, and then more selling. Hold on tight girl… it's the pop before the drop!
Thanks Red – still holding even though my tail is in between my legs!