The way I'm looking to play it, is to add a 1/3 short position at 111.60 spy, another 1/3 at 112.30-112.50, and the finally 1/3 at 113.20.
If we are lucky enough to reach 113.20 on the spy, I'll go 100% short into the weekend. Not sure if that will happen or not, but that's where I'd love to see it go.
Now, as for the unemployment numbers, I believe the market is a little scared right now of any news or earnings coming out. So, I believe we will sell off before the numbers and then rally once they are released.
The government will get out their erasers and make sure the numbers are better then expected, which will cause the small rally up.
If I think like a retail trader, then I would be thinking that the numbers are going to be bad, and therefore I'd be shorting before the numbers. So you need to do the opposite… wait until the numbers are released and go short after the rally has peaked.
On the other hand, if we rally into the numbers, then they really are bad and you should go short before Friday. But, I don't think that will happen. I think the market will pullback a little before the numbers, and then rally on them.
Regardless of how it plays out… look for the key levels to be hit that I listed above.
Hi Red, It looks like we are on schedule as planned. Only concern I have is with the unemployment number coming out on Friday. Could bad numbers on Friday be the start of the move down? I may add to my short position on Thursday.
Thanks Dnarby – totally true. When they go against you, they seem to make big moves and when they are in your favor, the 3x are more like 2x. Still. I'll take it.
Project Camelot is reading like science fiction to me. I'm open-minded enough to think that some or all of it is plausible. However, I wouldn't need to believe any of it to come to the same conclusion that one should find a safe place and do it now.
What I do know is that natural disasters and human atrocities have occurred throughout history, and, although Americans have enjoyed a period of relative stability, the world as a whole is potentially more volatile than ever.
So, Red, how far along are you in securing a safe place? Still at the beginning of the brainstorming phase like me or further ahead?
They work fine as long as you don't plan on holding them longer than ~6 weeks (after a couple weeks the 2x are like 1.9x and the 3x are more like 2.7x, but the leverage is still free).
Is it that one about the decay? I totally know they are lousy instruments but I don't want to dig into margin and I don't want to try to pick stocks. So be it.
I hope it works out too, because I'm long the USO. I would go long the SPY, but it's just too risky. Oil isn't as highly manipulated and should move up to about 38 by Friday.
Hi Red Your on the money so far !
Im just a bit worried that the nice gentlemen on the PPT team keep coming to the rescue next week as well!
red
the throwback to support scenario is playing out to a T.
gap above trendline on SPY monday morning
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43226…
fridays bear trap was confirmed on monday
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43228…
this morning “they” gapped the SPY above it's 8SMA triggering buy programs
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43247…
The way I'm looking to play it, is to add a 1/3 short position at 111.60 spy, another 1/3 at 112.30-112.50, and the finally 1/3 at 113.20.
If we are lucky enough to reach 113.20 on the spy, I'll go 100% short into the weekend. Not sure if that will happen or not, but that's where I'd love to see it go.
Now, as for the unemployment numbers, I believe the market is a little scared right now of any news or earnings coming out. So, I believe we will sell off before the numbers and then rally once they are released.
The government will get out their erasers and make sure the numbers are better then expected, which will cause the small rally up.
If I think like a retail trader, then I would be thinking that the numbers are going to be bad, and therefore I'd be shorting before the numbers. So you need to do the opposite… wait until the numbers are released and go short after the rally has peaked.
On the other hand, if we rally into the numbers, then they really are bad and you should go short before Friday. But, I don't think that will happen. I think the market will pullback a little before the numbers, and then rally on them.
Regardless of how it plays out… look for the key levels to be hit that I listed above.
Red
Hi Red,
It looks like we are on schedule as planned. Only concern I have is with the unemployment number coming out on Friday. Could bad numbers on Friday be the start of the move down? I may add to my short position on Thursday.
I'm working with some folks on marketing it.
Thanks Dnarby – totally true. When they go against you, they seem to make big moves and when they are in your favor, the 3x are more like 2x. Still. I'll take it.
Project Camelot is reading like science fiction to me. I'm open-minded enough to think that some or all of it is plausible. However, I wouldn't need to believe any of it to come to the same conclusion that one should find a safe place and do it now.
What I do know is that natural disasters and human atrocities have occurred throughout history, and, although Americans have enjoyed a period of relative stability, the world as a whole is potentially more volatile than ever.
So, Red, how far along are you in securing a safe place? Still at the beginning of the brainstorming phase like me or further ahead?
They work fine as long as you don't plan on holding them longer than ~6
weeks (after a couple weeks the 2x are like 1.9x and the 3x are more
like 2.7x, but the leverage is still free).
Is it that one about the decay? I totally know they are lousy instruments but I don't want to dig into margin and I don't want to try to pick stocks. So be it.
Thanks G…
I hope it works out too, because I'm long the USO. I would go long the SPY, but it's just too risky. Oil isn't as highly manipulated and should move up to about 38 by Friday.
We'll see…