OK… You really need to strip off the tin foil. The gov't did not stage 9/11. Just from a practical standpoint the downsides (if found out) are too severe.
That said, the government certainly didn't go out of their way to prevent something like 9/11 from happening, FAR FROM THE CONTRARY. Not even after they tried to bring it down once before and failed!
I find it much easier to imagine *they purposefully engaged in a dereliction of their duty*, which is just as bad.
And I doubt they will manufacture a reason to let the market fall. Chances are the banksters will just let it happen so they can (attempt to) bully more $ out of the taxpayer.
All very valid and true points. I'm agreeing that I don't see a lot of upside left. However, I'm still inclined to believe that we will bounce up next week. The short term technicals are pointing up, while the longer term has just rolled over and are point down.
So don't worry about me going long on the market next week. The only long position I have is in the USO (oil) which due a short term bounce. Other then that, I'm just waiting on the sidelines for the end of next week to arrive, so I can go short again.
Believe me… I'm a bear! But, all short term TA's say that we bounce next week. So, I'll wait until it's over and then go short again.
I do think that there will be a lot of swings from up to down each day next week. If you are a day trader, you can make a fortune or loss one…
Not to worry though… I'll be going short with you, but not until next Friday.
They should be horrible! And Wall Street isn't stupid… they know that the numbers are going to be bad. So, I'd expect that the numbers that are predicted to be pretty low. That means that it wouldn't be too hard to beat those numbers by fudging them a little like the government does anyway.
That could cause a rally up on Friday, and then something bad to happen over the weekend and the markets then crash on Monday or Tuesday?
The government could stage another 911 or something of that nature to blame the crash on. From a technical standpoint, the market is ready to crash… but the government wants the public to believe in this fake recovery.
How do you do that if the market crashes because of the lack of real profits and growth from companies? The Answer… you stage some other event to blame it on. Then, you get on TV and preach to the public how well the economy was going, and then something bad had too happen to delay it.
I hope nothing serious happens, but I wouldn't put it past them! However, I think they are going to wait until this September before they stage another big event. The biggest crash is predicted to start in late September of this year.
I'm concerned that they will stage another terrorist attack or something like it, during that time period to blame the crash on. I'm going to stay out of the major cities during that month, as it could be a small suitcase nuke?
I know I'm sounding like a nut, but I'm serious about the governments' involvement in the crashes and rallies in this market. It's all planned out many months in the future. It's up to us to figure it out before it happens.
I think the hedge funds might buy the banks to start a squeeze, but the institutional player's positions are so large they can't jump in and out that easily. Plus, hedge funds trying a bear squeeze might run into the teeth of an institution selling into it. They are bailing out now (per stocktiming.com's paid service), and while they might let up for a day or two, they also might just sell the hell out of any bounce.
Here are some other bear points from a commenter on Carl Futia's blog
1. Weekly MACD has rolled over 2. Slow Stochastic has rolled over (when this breaks 80 on the way down, the fall will intensify) 3. The 1150 mark represented the third line from the 2007 S&P highs (1576 in October 2007 and 1440 in May 2008) and what a coincidence it has now just rolled over. 4. The market has continued to rise on lower volume and fewer and fewer stocks making higher highs (see item#1). This is a classic sign of a tired market. 5. Bernanke was recently made Time Man of the Year. Carl can attest this is a classic contrarian indicator he has reached his peak of his career. 6. The Dumb Money index reached an almost 80% reading, meaning all of the Dumb Money was 'all in' long. 7. In November 2009, the Bearish investors intelligence indicator reached the low teens (this has only happened a few times in many years), meaning there is no one else to cover. 8. The market is falling on 'good' earnings reports'. Compare this to the times when the market rallied on 'bad' earnings'. 9. The Euro and Oil peaked in late November. These are classic leading indicators of the S&P as I have mention many times on Carl’s blog. . 10. The dollar bottomed in November 2009 and has started to rise. This is considered a safe-haven and compared to all other world currencies, is still the choice of investors. And we all know when the dollar is going up, indices are going down. 10. Many other foreign exchanges (i.e. DAX, FTSE) hit their respective 50 month moving averages (prominent resistance) and have started to fall over.
So there's a bunch of bear arguments. To that I would add p/e's are in the ionosphere.
Also, this market is built on a lot of hope, lies and hot air. Not exactly a firm foundation.
But the best argument I can find that we don't get much of a bounce is that there's simply no liquidity (money!) left to drive the market higher. Where's it going to come from? QE is almost over (just a few billion dollars left), money markets are at very low levels http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010… …
Now, what exactly is the Bull argument? We just had a 7% correction? Per Hussman we have (on average) another 21% to go…
That said, I'm not going full bore short Monday, I'm just beginning a core position… But I still think the risk is much stronger playing the upside at this point.
I think there is a lot of bears short right now, and all the government has too do, is to tell the banks that their not going to bother them as they previously stated.
The institutions will start buying up the banks to get the squeeze going. Then the bears will be forced to cover causing a larger rally. It's been done since this bear market rally started last year in March, and still works today.
It's all about what side of the trade the institutions are on. Do they continue selling and allow the bears to jump on board and profit on the way down, or do they steal the bears' money with a squeeze?
You know the answer to that one… they steal the bears' money again. The big institutions control what direction this market goes, and if they decide to buy for a day or so… the market will go up.
We'll see Monday I guess? Remember, a possible gap down and then rally is what I expect too happen.
I'm planning on being very careful, and only getting short on strength… Although I will be taking a partial position Monday.
The potential problem I see with your scenario is where the money to drive the market up will come from. The free Fed money is gone, the remaining stimulus will be spent to 'create' jobs (instead of going directly into the market), the bears have been beat to crap over the last several months (not much money left there), and money market funds (per Technical Take) are at really low levels… So I'm just not seeing the money.
Therefore I'll be building a core short position. I may have to weather a drawdown, but I just can't see much upside at all from here.
Basically (although I know almost squat about EW) I'm not convinced wave 5 down is done yet (maybe another 5% before a bounce, and 10-20% before a relief rally, but who knows!)! XD
I'd wait until this coming Friday or next Monday before going short (unless you are day trading of course). Regardless of how high we are going to next week, the following week is when the big fall will happen.
The 8th or 9th should start it, so I want to get short on Friday… no matter what level the market is at, I will go short. The government can manufacture any news they want to cause a rally to occur next week. All they have to do is come out an say that they aren't going to be so hard on Wall Street like they said a few weeks ago… which started this big sell off in the first place.
The banks will rally and the bears will get squeezed. If I'm wrong, then the real key level to break is to have a second closing day below 107.20 spy. I'm looking for a move down to 106.75 Monday morning, which will close the gap from Friday November the 6th to gap open on Monday November the 9th of 2009.
That means that there is a strong possibility of a gap down Monday to close the gap, and then a rally to close the day positive. Then the rest of the week should rally too, especially if so good news is released.
Look for 107.20 or lower on Monday's close, before going short. If that happens, then the next support level is at 104.00. Personally, I don't believe it will happen. I think they are going to squeeze the bears next week.
You know how they love to fake people out, and steal the money from both bulls and bears. Be careful going short next week… as I think that's a bad idea.
I'm looking for 110.34 (hoping for 112) to be hit by next Friday.
Seriously though, it does look like we're in a downward channel. I'm not sure we'll get that strong a bounce on Monday. I'm going to be starting a core short position and adding to it on strength.
This move has surprised everyone with it's speed and strength, I don't see anything other than direct government intervention that will change that. I'm thinking we probably keep that up.
Agree, but at this point I think a mistake in shorting will eventually
be rectified by the market, and pretty quickly.
Basically my plan is sell the rips, partial cover on dips, rinse,
repeat. But I want to keep a core short position.
OK… You really need to strip off the tin foil. The gov't did not
stage 9/11. Just from a practical standpoint the downsides (if found
out) are too severe.
That said, the government certainly didn't go out of their way to
prevent something like 9/11 from happening, FAR FROM THE CONTRARY. Not
even after they tried to bring it down once before and failed!
I find it much easier to imagine *they purposefully engaged in a
dereliction of their duty*, which is just as bad.
And I doubt they will manufacture a reason to let the market fall.
Chances are the banksters will just let it happen so they can (attempt
to) bully more $ out of the taxpayer.
All very valid and true points. I'm agreeing that I don't see a lot of upside left. However, I'm still inclined to believe that we will bounce up next week. The short term technicals are pointing up, while the longer term has just rolled over and are point down.
So don't worry about me going long on the market next week. The only long position I have is in the USO (oil) which due a short term bounce. Other then that, I'm just waiting on the sidelines for the end of next week to arrive, so I can go short again.
Believe me… I'm a bear! But, all short term TA's say that we bounce next week. So, I'll wait until it's over and then go short again.
I do think that there will be a lot of swings from up to down each day next week. If you are a day trader, you can make a fortune or loss one…
Not to worry though… I'll be going short with you, but not until next Friday.
Yes Ben…
They should be horrible! And Wall Street isn't stupid… they know that the numbers are going to be bad. So, I'd expect that the numbers that are predicted to be pretty low. That means that it wouldn't be too hard to beat those numbers by fudging them a little like the government does anyway.
That could cause a rally up on Friday, and then something bad to happen over the weekend and the markets then crash on Monday or Tuesday?
The government could stage another 911 or something of that nature to blame the crash on. From a technical standpoint, the market is ready to crash… but the government wants the public to believe in this fake recovery.
How do you do that if the market crashes because of the lack of real profits and growth from companies? The Answer… you stage some other event to blame it on. Then, you get on TV and preach to the public how well the economy was going, and then something bad had too happen to delay it.
I hope nothing serious happens, but I wouldn't put it past them! However, I think they are going to wait until this September before they stage another big event. The biggest crash is predicted to start in late September of this year.
I'm concerned that they will stage another terrorist attack or something like it, during that time period to blame the crash on. I'm going to stay out of the major cities during that month, as it could be a small suitcase nuke?
I know I'm sounding like a nut, but I'm serious about the governments' involvement in the crashes and rallies in this market. It's all planned out many months in the future. It's up to us to figure it out before it happens.
I think the hedge funds might buy the banks to start a squeeze, but the
institutional player's positions are so large they can't jump in and out
that easily. Plus, hedge funds trying a bear squeeze might run into the
teeth of an institution selling into it. They are bailing out now (per
stocktiming.com's paid service), and while they might let up for a day
or two, they also might just sell the hell out of any bounce.
Here are some other bear points from a commenter on Carl Futia's blog
1. Weekly MACD has rolled over
2. Slow Stochastic has rolled over (when this breaks 80 on the way down,
the fall will intensify)
3. The 1150 mark represented the third line from the 2007 S&P highs
(1576 in October 2007 and 1440 in May 2008) and what a coincidence it
has now just rolled over.
4. The market has continued to rise on lower volume and fewer and fewer
stocks making higher highs (see item#1). This is a classic sign of a
tired market.
5. Bernanke was recently made Time Man of the Year. Carl can attest this
is a classic contrarian indicator he has reached his peak of his career.
6. The Dumb Money index reached an almost 80% reading, meaning all of
the Dumb Money was 'all in' long.
7. In November 2009, the Bearish investors intelligence indicator
reached the low teens (this has only happened a few times in many
years), meaning there is no one else to cover.
8. The market is falling on 'good' earnings reports'. Compare this to
the times when the market rallied on 'bad' earnings'.
9. The Euro and Oil peaked in late November. These are classic leading
indicators of the S&P as I have mention many times on Carl’s blog. .
10. The dollar bottomed in November 2009 and has started to rise. This
is considered a safe-haven and compared to all other world currencies,
is still the choice of investors. And we all know when the dollar is
going up, indices are going down.
10. Many other foreign exchanges (i.e. DAX, FTSE) hit their respective
50 month moving averages (prominent resistance) and have started to fall
over.
So there's a bunch of bear arguments. To that I would add p/e's are in
the ionosphere.
Another is via John Hussman, who points out that historically these
things result in a quick plunge averaging about 28%
http://thetaildoesnotwagthedog.blogspot.com/200…
Also, this market is built on a lot of hope, lies and hot air. Not
exactly a firm foundation.
But the best argument I can find that we don't get much of a bounce is
that there's simply no liquidity (money!) left to drive the market
higher. Where's it going to come from? QE is almost over (just a few
billion dollars left), money markets are at very low levels
http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010…
…
Now, what exactly is the Bull argument? We just had a 7% correction?
Per Hussman we have (on average) another 21% to go…
That said, I'm not going full bore short Monday, I'm just beginning a
core position… But I still think the risk is much stronger playing
the upside at this point.
I was thinking that the employment figure next friday would be bad and now perhaps this is what will drive stock down starting the wave 3 down.
I think there is a lot of bears short right now, and all the government has too do, is to tell the banks that their not going to bother them as they previously stated.
The institutions will start buying up the banks to get the squeeze going. Then the bears will be forced to cover causing a larger rally. It's been done since this bear market rally started last year in March, and still works today.
It's all about what side of the trade the institutions are on. Do they continue selling and allow the bears to jump on board and profit on the way down, or do they steal the bears' money with a squeeze?
You know the answer to that one… they steal the bears' money again. The big institutions control what direction this market goes, and if they decide to buy for a day or so… the market will go up.
We'll see Monday I guess? Remember, a possible gap down and then rally is what I expect too happen.
Good Luck to us both,
Red
I'm planning on being very careful, and only getting short on
strength… Although I will be taking a partial position Monday.
The potential problem I see with your scenario is where the money to
drive the market up will come from. The free Fed money is gone, the
remaining stimulus will be spent to 'create' jobs (instead of going
directly into the market), the bears have been beat to crap over the
last several months (not much money left there), and money market funds
(per Technical Take) are at really low levels… So I'm just not seeing
the money.
Therefore I'll be building a core short position. I may have to weather
a drawdown, but I just can't see much upside at all from here.
Basically (although I know almost squat about EW) I'm not convinced wave
5 down is done yet (maybe another 5% before a bounce, and 10-20% before
a relief rally, but who knows!)! XD
Good luck to all!
I'd wait until this coming Friday or next Monday before going short (unless you are day trading of course). Regardless of how high we are going to next week, the following week is when the big fall will happen.
The 8th or 9th should start it, so I want to get short on Friday… no matter what level the market is at, I will go short. The government can manufacture any news they want to cause a rally to occur next week. All they have to do is come out an say that they aren't going to be so hard on Wall Street like they said a few weeks ago… which started this big sell off in the first place.
The banks will rally and the bears will get squeezed. If I'm wrong, then the real key level to break is to have a second closing day below 107.20 spy. I'm looking for a move down to 106.75 Monday morning, which will close the gap from Friday November the 6th to gap open on Monday November the 9th of 2009.
That means that there is a strong possibility of a gap down Monday to close the gap, and then a rally to close the day positive. Then the rest of the week should rally too, especially if so good news is released.
Look for 107.20 or lower on Monday's close, before going short. If that happens, then the next support level is at 104.00. Personally, I don't believe it will happen. I think they are going to squeeze the bears next week.
You know how they love to fake people out, and steal the money from both bulls and bears. Be careful going short next week… as I think that's a bad idea.
I'm looking for 110.34 (hoping for 112) to be hit by next Friday.
Red
Hey Leo!
Came here from Stevo's (and now Cobra's) blog.
Damn fine TA there. EW I can believe in! XD
Seriously though, it does look like we're in a downward channel. I'm not sure we'll get that strong a bounce on Monday. I'm going to be starting a core short position and adding to it on strength.
This move has surprised everyone with it's speed and strength, I don't see anything other than direct government intervention that will change that. I'm thinking we probably keep that up.