This is exactly what I have been saying – mkt is not going to crash before shopping season / Christmas … if people don't spend – we will see a lot more retailer go under under year and that all spirals down to more job losses …. and even lesser spending – its a downward spiral and you can bet that the mkt will not be allowed to crash – 10-15% before next year …
Looks like the futures are already up 11 points this Monday morning, just like I expected. But, it's already too high to go long at this point. Needless to say… I won't be buying any calls this morning.
At this point, it's best to wait till later in the week and go short. I still don't know if they will re-capture 1114, and push on up to 1120 area, or get slammed down right where they are now?
Looks like the futures are already up 11 points this Monday morning, just like I expected. But, it's already too high to go long at this point. Needless to say… I won't be buying any calls this morning.
At this point, it's best to wait till later in the week and go short. I still don't know if they will re-capture 1114, and push on up to 1120 area, or get slammed down right where they are now?
I am not saying black swan comes this week. They (and their cruise missile) are impossible to predict.
July 4th zone was a big down. The big boys have their minions playing this market 24/7 with most the moves coming at night so that people get whipsawed or miss the moves. So I suspect holiday times even more than a normal week as a time to make a move.
Just saying Red….
But also agree…there will be plenty of time to short after a confirmed downtrend is started….unless government action somehow makes that impossible. That is fully possible, Obama will listen to anything his old school corruption cronies tell him.
agree about next week, everything points in that direction.
last year we were coming off of the 11/21 low, for one thing – a ganniversary hit. for another, 11/20 is a 42 day astro/spiral-calendar cycle form the 1/1/10 lunar eclipse.
if we are going to have a spike finish to the great upwave from 3/6, the timing is ideal for the next three weeks.
we, we'll see what ms. market thinks of these plans.
Yes, you're right humble… I should have stated any and all holiday's, as Thanksgiving does indeed “always” fall on a Thursday.
As for the trend line, I didn't draw it. The first chart is from “The Chart Pattern Trader” (see link on right under BlogRoll), and the 2nd chart is from “Cobra's Blog”. I just borrowed them and added everything that is in “Yellow”.
But, any trend line is… and can be, drawn several different ways. There isn't any “set in stone” way to draw them. You can include the intraday high or low, or you can draw it only off the daily closing price.
Regardless of how you draw it, the market is up against some tough resistance around the 1100 area. But, of course, a “breakout” could occur? Many times the market will pop over a trend line and then reverse hard the other way. It's really quite common, as the can “fake out” all the bulls and bears. I just don't see a real breakout without another 5% pullback first.
After that, then the market could make another run for the next fib level around 1228.74 (61.8%). It's going to depend on what the institutions want to do this December. Will they start buying again, and push the market up to that level?
Or, will they continue selling, to lock in gains for the year from the March low? I can't answer that, but December is usually bullish, as the Christmas holiday (whatever day it falls on… LOL) will be coming up and many traders go on long vacations.
So, baring that we don't get some “Black Swan” event as Steveo77 mentioned in his comment, I'd say we will go up next week.
I agree with you Steve that it is very bearish right now, but I really don't see it happening next week. When is the last time you can remember any holiday that had a huge volume down day?
There may have been one or two, but I can't remember any. You need huge volume for the Black Swan to play out. And you need some type of major news event to be the catalyst that starts it.
Unless we (USA) gets attacked over the weekend, or some other crazy event, I'm going to have to stick with the plan that the light volume next week will cause the market to go sideways to up.
Believe me though… I'm very bearish on the economy right now. But, I've also lost a bunch of money fighting the tape, and going bearish all the time. I'm not turning bullish here by any means. I'm only saying that the market should float higher next week and form that right shoulder.
It could turn down hard anytime next week, but I doubt it. I'll be looking for a short entry on Friday, or the following Monday. It all depends on where the market is on Friday.
Thank you very much. I was beginning to think I was talking to myself.
Great one Red … 🙂
This is exactly what I have been saying – mkt is not going to crash before shopping season / Christmas … if people don't spend – we will see a lot more retailer go under under year and that all spirals down to more job losses …. and even lesser spending – its a downward spiral and you can bet that the mkt will not be allowed to crash – 10-15% before next year …
It matches your Indian costume… that's how! Where's your Tee Pee?
hahah how did you know I had a hammock like that 🙂
Looks like the futures are already up 11 points this Monday morning, just like I expected. But, it's already too high to go long at this point. Needless to say… I won't be buying any calls this morning.
At this point, it's best to wait till later in the week and go short. I still don't know if they will re-capture 1114, and push on up to 1120 area, or get slammed down right where they are now?
Cash is a position.
Red
Looks like the futures are already up 11 points this Monday morning, just like I expected. But, it's already too high to go long at this point. Needless to say… I won't be buying any calls this morning.
At this point, it's best to wait till later in the week and go short. I still don't know if they will re-capture 1114, and push on up to 1120 area, or get slammed down right where they are now?
Cash is a position.
Red
I am not saying black swan comes this week. They (and their cruise missile) are impossible to predict.
July 4th zone was a big down. The big boys have their minions playing this market 24/7 with most the moves coming at night so that people get whipsawed or miss the moves. So I suspect holiday times even more than a normal week as a time to make a move.
Just saying Red….
But also agree…there will be plenty of time to short after a confirmed downtrend is started….unless government action somehow makes that impossible. That is fully possible, Obama will listen to anything his old school corruption cronies tell him.
agree about next week, everything points in that direction.
last year we were coming off of the 11/21 low, for one thing – a
ganniversary hit. for another, 11/20 is a 42 day astro/spiral-calendar cycle
form the 1/1/10 lunar eclipse.
if we are going to have a spike finish to the great upwave from 3/6, the
timing is ideal for the next three weeks.
we, we'll see what ms. market thinks of these plans.
;)-
Yes, you're right humble… I should have stated any and all holiday's, as Thanksgiving does indeed “always” fall on a Thursday.
As for the trend line, I didn't draw it. The first chart is from “The Chart Pattern Trader” (see link on right under BlogRoll), and the 2nd chart is from “Cobra's Blog”. I just borrowed them and added everything that is in “Yellow”.
But, any trend line is… and can be, drawn several different ways. There isn't any “set in stone” way to draw them. You can include the intraday high or low, or you can draw it only off the daily closing price.
Regardless of how you draw it, the market is up against some tough resistance around the 1100 area. But, of course, a “breakout” could occur? Many times the market will pop over a trend line and then reverse hard the other way. It's really quite common, as the can “fake out” all the bulls and bears. I just don't see a real breakout without another 5% pullback first.
After that, then the market could make another run for the next fib level around 1228.74 (61.8%). It's going to depend on what the institutions want to do this December. Will they start buying again, and push the market up to that level?
Or, will they continue selling, to lock in gains for the year from the March low? I can't answer that, but December is usually bullish, as the Christmas holiday (whatever day it falls on… LOL) will be coming up and many traders go on long vacations.
So, baring that we don't get some “Black Swan” event as Steveo77 mentioned in his comment, I'd say we will go up next week.
Red.
I agree with you Steve that it is very bearish right now, but I really don't see it happening next week. When is the last time you can remember any holiday that had a huge volume down day?
There may have been one or two, but I can't remember any. You need huge volume for the Black Swan to play out. And you need some type of major news event to be the catalyst that starts it.
Unless we (USA) gets attacked over the weekend, or some other crazy event, I'm going to have to stick with the plan that the light volume next week will cause the market to go sideways to up.
Believe me though… I'm very bearish on the economy right now. But, I've also lost a bunch of money fighting the tape, and going bearish all the time. I'm not turning bullish here by any means. I'm only saying that the market should float higher next week and form that right shoulder.
It could turn down hard anytime next week, but I doubt it. I'll be looking for a short entry on Friday, or the following Monday. It all depends on where the market is on Friday.
Red