Maybe we continue down until Wednesday when the Fed’s has $4.25-$5.25 Billion more to pump up the market? That could be our bounce spot and then back down the rest of the week?
Just one down day doesn’t seem likely too me. Possibly we get a small gap up tomorrow morning (or a flat open with a small rally) and then we go back down later in the day to close near the bottom again.
Then Wednesday could be the larger pop up (from the money injected into the market of course) and then peak on Thursday morning followed by more selling into Friday.
Scenario A: If they gap down in the morning (unless it’s huge of course) the short term bottom will likely be in and a continued move up toward 1335-1340 area should follow (the gap down should make the short term charts oversold enough to turn them back up and rally).
Scenario B: If they gap it up in the morning then the top is likely in today as it will be a “bull trap”. The short term charts aren’t oversold and if you gap up you will allow the momentum of the downward pressure to force them back down into a C wave (or wave 3). A gap down will relieve most of that selling pressure and allow for the rally as described in Scenario A.
Scenario C: If they open flat then it’s hard to say which direction the market will go. We’ll have to see how the futures look on the various short term charts at the open to make a decision on the direction.
Right now support is holding and Scenario A seems the most likely but I’d gladly short any decent gap up tomorrow morning as the odds of it rolling over into a C wave down or 3 wave would be high. A gap down and I might just sit on the sidelines to watch for a bottom.
The last thing I’d want to do is try to catch a falling knife as you just don’t really know how deep “oversold” can go on these short term charts. Remember, the daily chart could roll back over any day now. It’s being rallying hard from oversold conditions the last 2 weeks and could be ready for a breather.
While it’s not technically overbought yet either it’s not likely to go up too much farther. The MACD’s are at +5 now and +10 doesn’t seem like a reachable target with the downward pressure from the weekly and monthly charts still on the daily. That should keep it from reaching +10 in my opinion.
The Histogram bars are getting shorter but no negative divergence has been made just yet. That’s another reason I think we could get up to that 1330-1335 range before rolling over. If so, then we should see negative divergence setup on the daily chart which will allow it to final resume the downtrend.
From the looks of the charts I’d say we have one more day of this sideways chop before a decent move up to the 1330-1335 area. That also lines up with the Fed’s having more money to pump in the market on Wednesday from the “Tentative Outright Treasury Operation”, or TOTO, (as in the Wizard of Oz… LOL!)
Later tonight most likely. You will still have time to get in as it’s probably going to be a day or so later then I expected. Hang tight… you’ll get in before it moves big.
Hey Red.
Try not to over-think things though, sometimes..we simply go down 😉
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futures are sp -4pts, need a break <1403 (-6), so..we're within range of an overnight snap.
first target is 1385 – the low from last Wednesday. That might hold on first test..with abounce to 1395/1400..and then down we go again.
I refer you to a chart of winter 2007/8, Santa sure never arrived that Christmas.
Good wishes for rest of the week.
Me too Jim… looking for that small pop in the morning and then……… Timber!
Hey Red….just want to say thanks!
S&P low today was 1408.46 cash…..looking for yes a pop then…..hmmmmm
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Looks Like The Top Is Likely In Now And On Another Eleven Day…
Maybe we continue down until Wednesday when the Fed’s has $4.25-$5.25 Billion more to pump up the market? That could be our bounce spot and then back down the rest of the week?
Just one down day doesn’t seem likely too me. Possibly we get a small gap up tomorrow morning (or a flat open with a small rally) and then we go back down later in the day to close near the bottom again.
Then Wednesday could be the larger pop up (from the money injected into the market of course) and then peak on Thursday morning followed by more selling into Friday.
The plan for tomorrow morning:
Scenario A: If they gap down in the morning (unless it’s huge of course) the short term bottom will likely be in and a continued move up toward 1335-1340 area should follow (the gap down should make the short term charts oversold enough to turn them back up and rally).
Scenario B: If they gap it up in the morning then the top is likely in today as it will be a “bull trap”. The short term charts aren’t oversold and if you gap up you will allow the momentum of the downward pressure to force them back down into a C wave (or wave 3). A gap down will relieve most of that selling pressure and allow for the rally as described in Scenario A.
Scenario C: If they open flat then it’s hard to say which direction the market will go. We’ll have to see how the futures look on the various short term charts at the open to make a decision on the direction.
Right now support is holding and Scenario A seems the most likely but I’d gladly short any decent gap up tomorrow morning as the odds of it rolling over into a C wave down or 3 wave would be high. A gap down and I might just sit on the sidelines to watch for a bottom.
The last thing I’d want to do is try to catch a falling knife as you just don’t really know how deep “oversold” can go on these short term charts. Remember, the daily chart could roll back over any day now. It’s being rallying hard from oversold conditions the last 2 weeks and could be ready for a breather.
While it’s not technically overbought yet either it’s not likely to go up too much farther. The MACD’s are at +5 now and +10 doesn’t seem like a reachable target with the downward pressure from the weekly and monthly charts still on the daily. That should keep it from reaching +10 in my opinion.
The Histogram bars are getting shorter but no negative divergence has been made just yet. That’s another reason I think we could get up to that 1330-1335 range before rolling over. If so, then we should see negative divergence setup on the daily chart which will allow it to final resume the downtrend.
From the looks of the charts I’d say we have one more day of this sideways chop before a decent move up to the 1330-1335 area. That also lines up with the Fed’s having more money to pump in the market on Wednesday from the “Tentative Outright Treasury Operation”, or TOTO, (as in the Wizard of Oz… LOL!)
I have to admit that this person does have a point…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUoP3VTNipQ&feature=player_embedded
Later tonight most likely. You will still have time to get in as it’s probably going to be a day or so later then I expected. Hang tight… you’ll get in before it moves big.
When I expect this email for this penny stock Red?
Thanks