Still No conformation yet for a big move down. Last Friday we were looking for the SPX to close below the 2080 area to break the rising trendline of support on the weekly chart sine the 2011 low. But they closed it at 2103, well above that trendline.
So while Monday we should see the market rollover and drop from some overbought charts on the short term, we really can’t get too bearish until the 2040 level breaks and we get a break of the weekly rising trendline of support that should rise up a few points more by this Friday
At this point we seem to be back to playing this market day by until this zone is either broken below the 2040 support or 2135 resistance. It’s really 50/50 still, but leans bullish as each new week passes. The is because the weekly chart is in that area where turns back up commonly happened in the past (as I explained in the new video I did a few days ago).
Failure to turn back up should lead to a massive “fall off a cliff” move down like it did in the August 2011 correction. The chart back then and today look similar but it means nothing until a break of 2040 occurs. More range bound trading is likely still in play this week with an overbought short term market that suggests we’ll sell off early this week.
We could still see a slight move up Monday as suggested in the quick 5 minute video update I did on Friday. This because the ES Futures never hit the falling trendline of resistance around 2110 area. If hit I would look for a pullback the rest of the day and Tuesday too.
On the SPX it’s around 2113 or so. First support area going down is from a rising trendline around 2075 area. Break that and we should go to 2065 for the double bottom test from 7/27, and finally we have the 2040 support below that.
Personally I’ll look to just play the resistance levels for short entries with exit plans at each support level. Longs only to be taken when the current 4h, 2h, and 60min charts get oversold and look to turn back up. This could happen at any support level as that’s just not know until we get there.
https://seeker401.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/11665455_993926130706010_405572418536708694_n.jpg
Still No conformation yet for a big move down. Last Friday we were looking for the SPX to close below the 2080 area to break the rising trendline of support on the weekly chart sine the 2011 low. But they closed it at 2103, well above that trendline.
So while Monday we should see the market rollover and drop from some overbought charts on the short term, we really can’t get too bearish until the 2040 level breaks and we get a break of the weekly rising trendline of support that should rise up a few points more by this Friday
At this point we seem to be back to playing this market day by until this zone is either broken below the 2040 support or 2135 resistance. It’s really 50/50 still, but leans bullish as each new week passes. The is because the weekly chart is in that area where turns back up commonly happened in the past (as I explained in the new video I did a few days ago).
Failure to turn back up should lead to a massive “fall off a cliff” move down like it did in the August 2011 correction. The chart back then and today look similar but it means nothing until a break of 2040 occurs. More range bound trading is likely still in play this week with an overbought short term market that suggests we’ll sell off early this week.
We could still see a slight move up Monday as suggested in the quick 5 minute video update I did on Friday. This because the ES Futures never hit the falling trendline of resistance around 2110 area. If hit I would look for a pullback the rest of the day and Tuesday too.
On the SPX it’s around 2113 or so. First support area going down is from a rising trendline around 2075 area. Break that and we should go to 2065 for the double bottom test from 7/27, and finally we have the 2040 support below that.
Personally I’ll look to just play the resistance levels for short entries with exit plans at each support level. Longs only to be taken when the current 4h, 2h, and 60min charts get oversold and look to turn back up. This could happen at any support level as that’s just not know until we get there.
ES Futures broke trendline of support: http://screencast.com/t/XU19aLVf
ES Futures Quick 5 Minute Video Update: http://screencast.com/t/0cLmHP6e9cOq
Yep.. and if the gap down Monday they won’t let the bulls out or the bears in.
Considering the market has been broadly stuck since February.. its a wonder why more aren’t selling into this recent up wave.
Oh well.. .they’ll probably be whining next week if VIX 16s.. or higher.
Hard too be a bull with the VIX around 12, even with the obvious “inverted head and shoulders” pattern.
indeed. have a good weekend
VIX Update: http://screencast.com/t/dR0yAKO6E
ES Futures Update: http://screencast.com/t/Gtd2fUQMui