With the FOMC 2 day meeting tomorrow and Wednesday I think we can expect a low going into it as they already leaked the .035 interest rate hike last week. So all this selling today is the old “sell the rumor, buy the news” trading that seems to always trick the retail trader.
By the time the meeting ends and the minutes are released this Wednesday at 2pm EST the charts are going to be very oversold. In fact I think we’ll bottom before that and chop around Wednesday until the meeting is over with.
Speculation here but my guess is that we’ll bottom Tuesday then rally some for a wave 1 up into early Wednesday and down for a wave 2 into the 2pm meeting. Then the typical “squeeze the bears” move after the meeting and into the close.
Pure guessing there but we’ve all seen this rodeo many times now. Everyone gets all bearish going into a meeting thinking the Fed’s are going to say something bad and they forget they the news was leaked ahead of time on purpose to create the fear and selling into the event. Then we see the typical “shake out up and down” within minutes of the announcement and finally the move back up into the close later.
Since the gap down this Monday morning was blamed on the China drop it’s done a great job of luring in late bears. But I don’t see this lasting past the FOMC meeting. I’m watching the VIX now for clues and when it fills the gap at 16.60 I’ll be looking for a bottom in the SPX. It should be close after that’s filled I think.
week ending 07/24/15….(this is the weekly change)
$DJI….-518, down 2.9%
$SPX….-47, down 2.2%
NASDAQ…. -121, down 2.3%
futures 07/24/15 …….( % greater on Long or Short from COMMERCIALS traders)
DJI- 6% short….6% decrease to SHORT side
S&P- 1% long….2% decrease to LONG side
NASDAQ- 48% short….16% increase to SHORT side * *(see note below)
Russel- 1% short, 1% increase to SHORT side
Silver- 14% short….6% decrease to SHORT side
copper- 53% long….1% increase to LONG side
Gold- 11% short….15% decrease to SHORT side **(see note below)
us oil- 44% short….3% increase to SHORT side
VIX- 55% long….13% increase to LONG side
** amazing BIGGER build up from Commercials to 48% to the SHORT side on NASDAQ @ same time retail investors are building up now at 365% to the LONG side.
GOLD had a big decrease to the SHORT side….watching for bounce
Interesting week coming, Good Luck to all!
$DOUG out!
Since we are now unlikely to rally up to 2100 by the close today I’m no longer bearish on Monday. It looks more like the move down I was expecting for that day is happening today. I’m neutral to bullish for Monday now as we’ve had 5 down days in a row and the odds of another one Monday seem low too me.
How nice of them to “leak” this after the market has pulled back 50 SPX points or so. This “now” tells me we are near a low and they want to get bears on board short so they can squeeze them up to new highs.
We all know how they conveniently leak information at just the right time to trick bears into to shorting near a bottom (or bulls into going long near a top).
Google update: http://screencast.com/t/xoOOamBYj9V
SPY Update: http://screencast.com/t/U1nlhZkn6
ES Futures update: http://screencast.com/t/VeO2i7JVJGLq
With the FOMC 2 day meeting tomorrow and Wednesday I think we can expect a low going into it as they already leaked the .035 interest rate hike last week. So all this selling today is the old “sell the rumor, buy the news” trading that seems to always trick the retail trader.
By the time the meeting ends and the minutes are released this Wednesday at 2pm EST the charts are going to be very oversold. In fact I think we’ll bottom before that and chop around Wednesday until the meeting is over with.
Speculation here but my guess is that we’ll bottom Tuesday then rally some for a wave 1 up into early Wednesday and down for a wave 2 into the 2pm meeting. Then the typical “squeeze the bears” move after the meeting and into the close.
Pure guessing there but we’ve all seen this rodeo many times now. Everyone gets all bearish going into a meeting thinking the Fed’s are going to say something bad and they forget they the news was leaked ahead of time on purpose to create the fear and selling into the event. Then we see the typical “shake out up and down” within minutes of the announcement and finally the move back up into the close later.
Since the gap down this Monday morning was blamed on the China drop it’s done a great job of luring in late bears. But I don’t see this lasting past the FOMC meeting. I’m watching the VIX now for clues and when it fills the gap at 16.60 I’ll be looking for a bottom in the SPX. It should be close after that’s filled I think.
week ending 07/24/15….(this is the weekly change)
$DJI….-518, down 2.9%
$SPX….-47, down 2.2%
NASDAQ…. -121, down 2.3%
futures 07/24/15 …….( % greater on Long or Short from COMMERCIALS traders)
DJI- 6% short….6% decrease to SHORT side
S&P- 1% long….2% decrease to LONG side
NASDAQ- 48% short….16% increase to SHORT side * *(see note below)
Russel- 1% short, 1% increase to SHORT side
Silver- 14% short….6% decrease to SHORT side
copper- 53% long….1% increase to LONG side
Gold- 11% short….15% decrease to SHORT side **(see note below)
us oil- 44% short….3% increase to SHORT side
VIX- 55% long….13% increase to LONG side
** amazing BIGGER build up from Commercials to 48% to the SHORT side on NASDAQ @ same time retail investors are building up now at 365% to the LONG side.
GOLD had a big decrease to the SHORT side….watching for bounce
Interesting week coming, Good Luck to all!
$DOUG out!
Patten is similar to July/August of 2011 on SPX: http://screencast.com/t/DJGJfadttSP
VIX update: http://screencast.com/t/nYl27x3aerCs
watch the VIX it needs to get to the 17 area which is about S&P at 2040ish. Possible bounce on Monday but down hill we go.
Since we are now unlikely to rally up to 2100 by the close today I’m no longer bearish on Monday. It looks more like the move down I was expecting for that day is happening today. I’m neutral to bullish for Monday now as we’ve had 5 down days in a row and the odds of another one Monday seem low too me.
Leaked Federal Reserve Staff Projections Show Expected Federal Funds Rate Of 0.35% By End Of 2015 – UNCONFIRMED
http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/07/5702260/leaked-federal-reserve-staff-projections-show-expected-federal-funds-rate-of-0-35
How nice of them to “leak” this after the market has pulled back 50 SPX points or so. This “now” tells me we are near a low and they want to get bears on board short so they can squeeze them up to new highs.
We all know how they conveniently leak information at just the right time to trick bears into to shorting near a bottom (or bulls into going long near a top).