They certainly need to make it look bullish and closing at 2075-2080 sure would do it. I think they still have some final (final until they create a new deadline) meeting this Sunday about Greece, so a negative outcome there would definitely make Monday an ugly day.
So far this rally hasn’t broken the bearish momentum as there’s still no gap fill and the Greece news is out now, so unless they can drum up some other big news event I just don’t see what’s going to push the market up much more?
If this is all the bulls have then I don’t see any change in the forecast of a big move down coming starting next week. If some how they can rally up to close that gap around 2100 SPX then I’ll have to re-evaluate the forecast, but I just can’t see any more reasons to be long right now?
Maybe the old “bullish option expiration” week stat’s can get the rally started but it will have to be just on a technical basis that the short term charts are oversold (which they are), but the daily, weekly and monthly show no signs of bottoming yet and turning back up.
All in all it looks like SkyNet is doing what I expected it to do by closing above that 2060 SPX area to save the rising trendline of support on the weekly chart… which leaves everyone guessing again about what’s going to happen next week.
NOTE: IF THE 2100 GAP IS FILLED THEN THE “3 weeks down starting next week” Will Be DELAYED. I will then give that scenario 50/50 odds of starting next week at a “lower high” then the previous 2135 SPX high in May.
If that high is taken out then we are likely going up to 2200 area before topping and rolling over. Everyone MUST BE super bullish for this huge drop to happen. If we get up to that area then I’ll probably then increase the odds to 80/20 for the drop to start. At that point it should be late July or early August.
We all know what “could be” planed for late August. So again, “if” we have a new blow off top then August will be the BIG drop period. It’s all unconfirmed as of today but I want everyone be on the look out for what might happen. Remember, SkyNet is Artificial Intelligence and it knows there are too many bears out right now. It has to put them to sleep before the big drop.
If it’s directed by Quentin Tarantino, then the role of the bears is played by Mickey Rourke who’s always getting the crap kicked out of him. The bull is played by Eva Green who gets pampered and taken care of by her rich husband… who of course hides his real name and is called “The Fed” like some cool mafia godfather.
Perfectly timed news, when all the bears are trapped short! I used too fall for this years ago but I smelled it today and didn’t take any position today. Like I previously said, when this rally ends I see a 3 week decline starting like the July 22nd to August 8th of 2011 period.
Ahh… the market is just like a TV show with typical “perfect timed” scary moments, walk in and catch someone cheating, ..and the winner is (commercial break), slap stick stupid jokes, and of course the brief nudity scenes. Who’s directing this show I wonder… Steven Spielberg, George Lucas, Stanley Kubrick, Robert Zemeckis, or James Cameron? Feels more like a Quentin Tarantino show with all the blood from the bulls recently and bears blood bath Friday.
The market is going up nicely afterhours now from some positive Greece news. This is the final squeeze up I think. If they don’t fill the gap around 2100 area and just run out of steam in the 2080-2090 SPX area then I think it’s a short over the weekend. That “could” be the plan? Something positive about Greece on Friday and then change it back to something negative on Sunday when the market is closed.
However, if the Sunday meeting is canceled and this Friday agreement is the last meeting needed then they will probably turn this rally into a multi-day event to close the 2100 gap and go up even higher into a Tuesday-Thursday top next week. Don’t know which yet? Just have to see what happens Friday first. But this is the bear squeeze I wanted to see happen first before any 3 week drop starts.
They certainly need to make it look bullish and closing at 2075-2080 sure would do it. I think they still have some final (final until they create a new deadline) meeting this Sunday about Greece, so a negative outcome there would definitely make Monday an ugly day.
I am expecting 2075-80 close today. Next week we will see 2045 one more time. It may even go lower until 3rd week of July to test 2010 level.
So far this rally hasn’t broken the bearish momentum as there’s still no gap fill and the Greece news is out now, so unless they can drum up some other big news event I just don’t see what’s going to push the market up much more?
If this is all the bulls have then I don’t see any change in the forecast of a big move down coming starting next week. If some how they can rally up to close that gap around 2100 SPX then I’ll have to re-evaluate the forecast, but I just can’t see any more reasons to be long right now?
Maybe the old “bullish option expiration” week stat’s can get the rally started but it will have to be just on a technical basis that the short term charts are oversold (which they are), but the daily, weekly and monthly show no signs of bottoming yet and turning back up.
All in all it looks like SkyNet is doing what I expected it to do by closing above that 2060 SPX area to save the rising trendline of support on the weekly chart… which leaves everyone guessing again about what’s going to happen next week.
LOLlololol Your on a roll now Red. Great work.
NOTE: IF THE 2100 GAP IS FILLED THEN THE “3 weeks down starting next week” Will Be DELAYED. I will then give that scenario 50/50 odds of starting next week at a “lower high” then the previous 2135 SPX high in May.
If that high is taken out then we are likely going up to 2200 area before topping and rolling over. Everyone MUST BE super bullish for this huge drop to happen. If we get up to that area then I’ll probably then increase the odds to 80/20 for the drop to start. At that point it should be late July or early August.
We all know what “could be” planed for late August. So again, “if” we have a new blow off top then August will be the BIG drop period. It’s all unconfirmed as of today but I want everyone be on the look out for what might happen. Remember, SkyNet is Artificial Intelligence and it knows there are too many bears out right now. It has to put them to sleep before the big drop.
If it’s directed by Quentin Tarantino, then the role of the bears is played by Mickey Rourke who’s always getting the crap kicked out of him. The bull is played by Eva Green who gets pampered and taken care of by her rich husband… who of course hides his real name and is called “The Fed” like some cool mafia godfather.
Perfectly timed news, when all the bears are trapped short! I used too fall for this years ago but I smelled it today and didn’t take any position today. Like I previously said, when this rally ends I see a 3 week decline starting like the July 22nd to August 8th of 2011 period.
Ahh… the market is just like a TV show with typical “perfect timed” scary moments, walk in and catch someone cheating, ..and the winner is (commercial break), slap stick stupid jokes, and of course the brief nudity scenes. Who’s directing this show I wonder… Steven Spielberg, George Lucas, Stanley Kubrick, Robert Zemeckis, or James Cameron? Feels more like a Quentin Tarantino show with all the blood from the bulls recently and bears blood bath Friday.
The market is going up nicely afterhours now from some positive Greece news. This is the final squeeze up I think. If they don’t fill the gap around 2100 area and just run out of steam in the 2080-2090 SPX area then I think it’s a short over the weekend. That “could” be the plan? Something positive about Greece on Friday and then change it back to something negative on Sunday when the market is closed.
However, if the Sunday meeting is canceled and this Friday agreement is the last meeting needed then they will probably turn this rally into a multi-day event to close the 2100 gap and go up even higher into a Tuesday-Thursday top next week. Don’t know which yet? Just have to see what happens Friday first. But this is the bear squeeze I wanted to see happen first before any 3 week drop starts.
Thats quite a BIG drop.
Either way Monday could be very ugly.