While there is an obvious bear flag on the SPY now with such extremely low volume I’m not sure if it will play out or not? It’s resting on a trendline of support (and gap window), so while I’d love to see a gap fill I’m certainly not counting on it.
This actually looks like a small wave 4 down with Monday ending the wave 3 up. This leaves another wave up (wave 5) to make a higher high (then Monday) to end this 5 wave advance from the 2050 zone starting point.
I suspect we’ll make a new higher high (maybe 2140 SPX?) but not positive on that. Lots of times they trick the bulls by getting really close and then stopping. If so then we’d complete a 5 wave series up and allow for a ABC (larger wave 2 down) pullback to happen.
Then we’ll see if this bulls’ really got legs or not, as the next wave up would be a larger wave 3 (that would have 5 smaller waves inside it) that could take us to around 2200 SPX. I don’t think the bear case is dead but instead it just “appears” the bulls want to go a little higher before they quit and allow for a nice drop sometime in August to late September.
RDL
This is still a start to this project.
Hoping to figure out a time pattern on these weekly number to better set up Swing trades and figuring movement in sectors.
One sector watching & studying is Copper for LONG long term safety trading. Putting on watch to trade LONG on upward swings is BRSS, COPX, CU…they have higher BETA which I like for Swing trading.
To extend on about above Futures study, I’m seeing/looking at NASDAQ & stocks within that sector as the best for SHORTING at this time.
ANY thoughts from anyone on this would be greatly appreciated!!!!
week ending 07/17/15….(this is the weekly change)
$DJI….+326, Up 1.8%
$SPX….+50, Up 2.4%
QQQ…. +212, Up 4.2%
futures 07/017/15 …….( % greater on Long or Short from COMMERCIALS traders)
DJI- 12% short….10% increase to SHORT side
S&P- 3% long….2% decrease to LONG side
NASDAQ- 32% short….13% increase to SHORT side * *(see note below)
Russel- FLAT
Silver- 20% short….2% increase to SHORT side
copper- 52% long….11% decrease to LONG side
Gold- 26% short….4% decrease to SHORT side
us oil- 41% short….9% decrease to SHORT side
VIX- 42% long….12% increase to LONG side
** Futures options are from The COMMERCIAL guys (they KNOW much more) there is also reports on all NON-COMMERCIAL options which are really (The Retail Investors)..
So on the NASDAQ, I noticed N-C went from 81% LONG last week to a WHOPPING 300% LONG this week, while Commercial increased 13% more SHORT, making 32% SHORT side.
NASDAQ was up 4.2% this week!
…………….We all should know what this means for the NASDAQ!……………….
Lets see how this plays out in the next few weeks to month!
I guess it was GOOG and nothing else today. The operators pulled a good one launching a stock with that market cap 15% in a day.
<<>>>
218 new lows on the NYSE today. HOs going off like crazy the last couple of days.
<<<>>>>
Today is the last 12 I see for awhile but plenty of still promising numerology to come plus we have some nice pattern matching fractals to historical market epochs.
<>>>
The ether didn’t like my BD countdowns or astro updates yesterday, I guess.
Spot VIX down to 11.77 this a.m., that’s below both the May & June lows and the lowest reading since Dec 5th (11.53). The last 4 times the VIX ticked down to this mid-high 11’s level, it marked the low in the VIX to the very day:
09/19: 11.52
12/05: 11.53
05/22: 11.82
06/23: 11.93
Today: 11.77 so far
In each of these 4 instances, the VIX rallied sharply over the next 2-3 weeks, to: 31.06, 25.20, 15.74 & 20.05 respectively.
(Posted by another trader on another blog. Just thought it was worth reposting).
Thursday and Friday are bullish for this week so the low could be in now.
While there is an obvious bear flag on the SPY now with such extremely low volume I’m not sure if it will play out or not? It’s resting on a trendline of support (and gap window), so while I’d love to see a gap fill I’m certainly not counting on it.
This actually looks like a small wave 4 down with Monday ending the wave 3 up. This leaves another wave up (wave 5) to make a higher high (then Monday) to end this 5 wave advance from the 2050 zone starting point.
I suspect we’ll make a new higher high (maybe 2140 SPX?) but not positive on that. Lots of times they trick the bulls by getting really close and then stopping. If so then we’d complete a 5 wave series up and allow for a ABC (larger wave 2 down) pullback to happen.
Then we’ll see if this bulls’ really got legs or not, as the next wave up would be a larger wave 3 (that would have 5 smaller waves inside it) that could take us to around 2200 SPX. I don’t think the bear case is dead but instead it just “appears” the bulls want to go a little higher before they quit and allow for a nice drop sometime in August to late September.
ES Update: http://screencast.com/t/oLaj735QpBMb
RDL
This is still a start to this project.
Hoping to figure out a time pattern on these weekly number to better set up Swing trades and figuring movement in sectors.
One sector watching & studying is Copper for LONG long term safety trading. Putting on watch to trade LONG on upward swings is BRSS, COPX, CU…they have higher BETA which I like for Swing trading.
To extend on about above Futures study, I’m seeing/looking at NASDAQ & stocks within that sector as the best for SHORTING at this time.
ANY thoughts from anyone on this would be greatly appreciated!!!!
HAPPY TRADING
$Doug Out!
Thanks Doug… great update.
week ending 07/17/15….(this is the weekly change)
$DJI….+326, Up 1.8%
$SPX….+50, Up 2.4%
QQQ…. +212, Up 4.2%
futures 07/017/15 …….( % greater on Long or Short from COMMERCIALS traders)
DJI- 12% short….10% increase to SHORT side
S&P- 3% long….2% decrease to LONG side
NASDAQ- 32% short….13% increase to SHORT side * *(see note below)
Russel- FLAT
Silver- 20% short….2% increase to SHORT side
copper- 52% long….11% decrease to LONG side
Gold- 26% short….4% decrease to SHORT side
us oil- 41% short….9% decrease to SHORT side
VIX- 42% long….12% increase to LONG side
** Futures options are from The COMMERCIAL guys (they KNOW much more) there is also reports on all NON-COMMERCIAL options which are really (The Retail Investors)..
So on the NASDAQ, I noticed N-C went from 81% LONG last week to a WHOPPING 300% LONG this week, while Commercial increased 13% more SHORT, making 32% SHORT side.
NASDAQ was up 4.2% this week!
…………….We all should know what this means for the NASDAQ!……………….
Lets see how this plays out in the next few weeks to month!
Have a GREAT weekend all!
$Doug OUT!
I guess it was GOOG and nothing else today. The operators pulled a good one launching a stock with that market cap 15% in a day.
<<>>>
218 new lows on the NYSE today. HOs going off like crazy the last couple of days.
<<<>>>>
Today is the last 12 I see for awhile but plenty of still promising numerology to come plus we have some nice pattern matching fractals to historical market epochs.
<>>>
The ether didn’t like my BD countdowns or astro updates yesterday, I guess.
Today is day 13 on this chart: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIWpZJJUAAEwHlO.jpg:large So we should pullback some early next week as day 14-16 (next Monday to Wednesday) is seasonality weak.
Google adds as much in one day as the market cap of 415 S&P 500 companies
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-17/does-chart-look-bullish-you
Spot VIX down to 11.77 this a.m., that’s below both the May & June lows and the lowest reading since Dec 5th (11.53). The last 4 times the VIX ticked down to this mid-high 11’s level, it marked the low in the VIX to the very day:
09/19: 11.52
12/05: 11.53
05/22: 11.82
06/23: 11.93
Today: 11.77 so far
In each of these 4 instances, the VIX rallied sharply over the next 2-3 weeks, to: 31.06, 25.20, 15.74 & 20.05 respectively.
(Posted by another trader on another blog. Just thought it was worth reposting).