Since we are now unlikely to rally up to 2100 by the close today I’m no longer bearish on Monday. It looks more like the move down I was expecting for that day is happening today. I’m neutral to bullish for Monday now as we’ve had 5 down days in a row and the odds of another one Monday seem low too me.
How nice of them to “leak” this after the market has pulled back 50 SPX points or so. This “now” tells me we are near a low and they want to get bears on board short so they can squeeze them up to new highs.
We all know how they conveniently leak information at just the right time to trick bears into to shorting near a bottom (or bulls into going long near a top).
Based on today being Wednesday, which has odds of only 7% being the high or low for any given week, I have to speculate that we’ll drop one more time (Thursday morning I’d guess) before we rally back up. Lot’s of support in the 2098-2108 SPX zone from various daily moving averages. So if we drop tomorrow morning I’d be a bull.
While there is an obvious bear flag on the SPY now with such extremely low volume I’m not sure if it will play out or not? It’s resting on a trendline of support (and gap window), so while I’d love to see a gap fill I’m certainly not counting on it.
This actually looks like a small wave 4 down with Monday ending the wave 3 up. This leaves another wave up (wave 5) to make a higher high (then Monday) to end this 5 wave advance from the 2050 zone starting point.
I suspect we’ll make a new higher high (maybe 2140 SPX?) but not positive on that. Lots of times they trick the bulls by getting really close and then stopping. If so then we’d complete a 5 wave series up and allow for a ABC (larger wave 2 down) pullback to happen.
Then we’ll see if this bulls’ really got legs or not, as the next wave up would be a larger wave 3 (that would have 5 smaller waves inside it) that could take us to around 2200 SPX. I don’t think the bear case is dead but instead it just “appears” the bulls want to go a little higher before they quit and allow for a nice drop sometime in August to late September.
Since we are now unlikely to rally up to 2100 by the close today I’m no longer bearish on Monday. It looks more like the move down I was expecting for that day is happening today. I’m neutral to bullish for Monday now as we’ve had 5 down days in a row and the odds of another one Monday seem low too me.
Leaked Federal Reserve Staff Projections Show Expected Federal Funds Rate Of 0.35% By End Of 2015 – UNCONFIRMED
http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/07/5702260/leaked-federal-reserve-staff-projections-show-expected-federal-funds-rate-of-0-35
How nice of them to “leak” this after the market has pulled back 50 SPX points or so. This “now” tells me we are near a low and they want to get bears on board short so they can squeeze them up to new highs.
We all know how they conveniently leak information at just the right time to trick bears into to shorting near a bottom (or bulls into going long near a top).
SPY Update: http://screencast.com/t/mp3EhMe0kp
ES Futures Update: http://screencast.com/t/yuPtLWY7O If we close around 2100 today (Friday) I’d have to be bearish for Monday.
Charts just aren’t lining up yet for a nice move up and they aren’t bearish enough to drop hard.
sooo many goofballs coming out trying to make statements to cover both sides…..trying to call this market one tough job!
Based on today being Wednesday, which has odds of only 7% being the high or low for any given week, I have to speculate that we’ll drop one more time (Thursday morning I’d guess) before we rally back up. Lot’s of support in the 2098-2108 SPX zone from various daily moving averages. So if we drop tomorrow morning I’d be a bull.
Thursday and Friday are bullish for this week so the low could be in now.
While there is an obvious bear flag on the SPY now with such extremely low volume I’m not sure if it will play out or not? It’s resting on a trendline of support (and gap window), so while I’d love to see a gap fill I’m certainly not counting on it.
This actually looks like a small wave 4 down with Monday ending the wave 3 up. This leaves another wave up (wave 5) to make a higher high (then Monday) to end this 5 wave advance from the 2050 zone starting point.
I suspect we’ll make a new higher high (maybe 2140 SPX?) but not positive on that. Lots of times they trick the bulls by getting really close and then stopping. If so then we’d complete a 5 wave series up and allow for a ABC (larger wave 2 down) pullback to happen.
Then we’ll see if this bulls’ really got legs or not, as the next wave up would be a larger wave 3 (that would have 5 smaller waves inside it) that could take us to around 2200 SPX. I don’t think the bear case is dead but instead it just “appears” the bulls want to go a little higher before they quit and allow for a nice drop sometime in August to late September.
ES Update: http://screencast.com/t/oLaj735QpBMb