Downside could be limited today as the futures act like they want to turn back up on the 60 minute chart. The 2 hour could go either way and the 4 hour is still pointing down, which should keep some downward pressure on the 60 minute chart. The SPX cash is still overbought on it’s 60 minute chart and acts like it wants to turn back up too.
But considering how high up the MACD’s are at on that chart I just don’t see a big rally from these levels. I can only think that today might not be that much of a down day. Thursday is yet to be known as we need to see how today closes first.
Low volume is common for the summer time but also is a sign that there are very few “new longs” coming into the market at these levels. Of course there’s no fear until the market starts to sell off.
But my reasons for thinking tomorrow will be down have nothing to do with those factors and instead are just based on seasonality of this week being bearish, SPY up at double top zone, and most importantly a VERY Overbought chart.
The 60 minute, 2 hour, and 4 hour charts are overbought on both the futures and the cash for the S&P500 and the weakness today just smelled rotten for any breakout tomorrow. So a little bit of “gut feeling” in there but the charts really say “I’m overbought and ready to fall now”.
Ya, the one thing….SPY 2 days LOW volume and guessing squeezed a lot of the shorts out is that. As High volume would of shown new longs entering also!…Still no fear again tho!…..Do I believe?
We are VERY, VERY overbought right and every time frame is rolling over. Only the extremely light volume seems to be holding it back from collapsing. We “should” tank Tuesday, but…
They could get the futures oversold by tomorrow morning to keep the down move limited, as then the futures will try to push the market up while the SPX cash will try to go down. Meaning the actual price level won’t have the mojo to drop 20+ points like it really should and instead just fall 5-10 points… and probably chop most of the day while it trys to go back up.
We all know too well how they manipulate the charts to prevent big drops. So while my analysis suggests we’ll drop 20+ points over the next day or I won’t rule out some trickery here until this Greece crap passes. Greece is the wildcard and it can be used to produce some fake out spike up, so I’m cautious here. It just “feels” like they aren’t going to let it drop much regardless of what the charts say.
“…they are determined to make a new high on the SPX and DOW
as the Nasdaq and Russell already have.”
… their real concern should be the Transports!
Why Is The EU Forcing Nations To Adopt ‘Bail-In’ Legislation By The End Of The Summer?
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/why-is-the-eu-forcing-european-nations-to-adopt-bail-in-legislation-by-the-end-of-the-summer
“not a single bank account in the European Union will ever be truly safe again.”
Short term charts are neutral to oversold. Shorts be cautious here as a Greek deal tonight could cause a bear squeeze.
Downside could be limited today as the futures act like they want to turn back up on the 60 minute chart. The 2 hour could go either way and the 4 hour is still pointing down, which should keep some downward pressure on the 60 minute chart. The SPX cash is still overbought on it’s 60 minute chart and acts like it wants to turn back up too.
But considering how high up the MACD’s are at on that chart I just don’t see a big rally from these levels. I can only think that today might not be that much of a down day. Thursday is yet to be known as we need to see how today closes first.
Low volume is common for the summer time but also is a sign that there are very few “new longs” coming into the market at these levels. Of course there’s no fear until the market starts to sell off.
But my reasons for thinking tomorrow will be down have nothing to do with those factors and instead are just based on seasonality of this week being bearish, SPY up at double top zone, and most importantly a VERY Overbought chart.
The 60 minute, 2 hour, and 4 hour charts are overbought on both the futures and the cash for the S&P500 and the weakness today just smelled rotten for any breakout tomorrow. So a little bit of “gut feeling” in there but the charts really say “I’m overbought and ready to fall now”.
Ya, the one thing….SPY 2 days LOW volume and guessing squeezed a lot of the shorts out is that. As High volume would of shown new longs entering also!…Still no fear again tho!…..Do I believe?
I think we drop tomorrow…
once AGAIN…NO FEAR in the markets!
$VIX, $VXV….So VXX has falling!
What else can ya say 🙁
ES Futures Update: http://screencast.com/t/zm1MPgma
We are VERY, VERY overbought right and every time frame is rolling over. Only the extremely light volume seems to be holding it back from collapsing. We “should” tank Tuesday, but…
They could get the futures oversold by tomorrow morning to keep the down move limited, as then the futures will try to push the market up while the SPX cash will try to go down. Meaning the actual price level won’t have the mojo to drop 20+ points like it really should and instead just fall 5-10 points… and probably chop most of the day while it trys to go back up.
We all know too well how they manipulate the charts to prevent big drops. So while my analysis suggests we’ll drop 20+ points over the next day or I won’t rule out some trickery here until this Greece crap passes. Greece is the wildcard and it can be used to produce some fake out spike up, so I’m cautious here. It just “feels” like they aren’t going to let it drop much regardless of what the charts say.