Monday, April 15, 2024

Weekend Update…

climbing-too-high-10000

I'm still looking for the market to go to 1108 spx before any significant correction down.  I believe it will be reached next week by Wednesday.  Option expiration was Friday for most stocks and indexes, but the VIX expiration is actually this coming week, on the 21st... which is Wednesday.  That's one reason that I don't think any major sell-off will occur until after the October month is closed out.

Those market makers don't want lose any money, so they need to keep the vix low until those positions expire worthless.  After that... well that's another story.  November should be a down month, as I expect a nice drop to occur in the next few months.  Why you ask?  Well, it's not all based on Technical Analysis, Elliottwaves, Fib Levels, or Turn Dates.  Nope, it's based on insider information.

You see... TA, EW, Fib's, Astro turn dates and any other method you can think off, hasn't worked too well lately.  In the past... yes, they all worked well.  But today things are different.  Massive printing of money equals massive manipulation of the markets.  So, you can basically throw all that charting out the window.  If the government wants the market to go higher... it will.

With that said, I don't mean to imply that charting is worthless.  Quite the opposite is true.  Charting is still valuable.  But, basing a decision on charts alone is foolish as the government can keep print more money to buy up any dips in the market.  Just when the charts say that the market is ready to crash... BAM!  Here comes the PPT to the rescue.

Going short against the government is suicide, and going long with companies that are borderline bankrupt is also suicide.  So, what do you do?  You wait until the government pulls the money from the market and allows it to behave normally... that's what!  When that happens, it will go down of course, as the economic conditions are still horrible.  If the government would just stay out the market and let it find a true bottom we would get this recession over with quicker and start a real recovery.  But, crooks do what they do best... lie, steal, and cheat to get what they want.

How does that benefit us?  Well, I believe that there are individuals that know what's going on... and most importantly what going to happen next.  I think that one of those people is the guy known as "Mr. TopStep".  He and his group of traders most likely have inside information, which they share with anyone who wants to know.  All you have to do is watch their video's on youtube.

I don't think that you should throw all other methods away and only do what they are doing, but they do know more then the average trader.  And after all, aren't most people who visit and read blogs every day just average traders?  I know I am... how about you?  If you had access to some inside information, from Goldman, JP Morgan, or some other bank "in the know", would you be looking for information on the future market direction on some blog, or would you listen to that source?

If I had that kind of information I wouldn't waste my time reading blogs everyday.  I do so because I feel that many of those posters have better knowledge then me.  Of course figuring out which ones is the really hard trick to do.  With that said, I think that listening to someone who is trading on the floor of the S&P futures is someone who most likely has some inside information, or at least more accurate information then most do.

And, he's willing to share it with anyone who wants it.  Just watch the free video's he posts on youtube.  Again, I want to say that you shouldn't make your decision to buy or sell based solely on what Mr. TopStep says, but you should listen and take that into consideration before making a decision in the market.  About a month ago he said that the market wants to close that gap from October, 2008.  Here's the video...

 

As you can see, we are almost there.  In the past, when the market gets inside the gap area and pulls back, it almost always trys again until it closes the gap.  Rarely does it go inside the gap window and not close it.  Since the market pulled back Friday, and the gap isn't closed yet (on a daily bias), I believe the market will rally one final time early next week to finally close that gap at 1108 SPX  (110.34 spy).  Here's Mr. TopSteps' latest video...

 

Then, the market should pull back to the 900 area or so, before another rally up.  Now, you may be asking... will that rally up break the current high, or the future 1108 high (if it makes it there next week)?

That's up the in air at this time.  If the government injects more money, then maybe is the answer.

If they don't, then "Hell NO" is the answer... Dow 4000 here we come!

Dow4000

But for now, let's just focus on the present... and that says that the market is going to close the gap this week and then sell off.  I'm just going to sit and wait until the high is hit, then go short. 

Red

Red
Author: Red

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steveo77
14 years ago

Nice post RD!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

Thanks, Steveo77…

I try to do my posts a little different then Tim or Mole's. They are really good at the TA charting, which is very helpful in trying to figure out where we are going.

On the other hand, I just like to throw other things out there that seems to be affecting the markets also… and that is the “Manipulation Factor”. Knowing what the insiders are doing, with TA to back it up, makes for a more informed trader.

Red

Jigsaw
Jigsaw
14 years ago

Great post and insight. I would feel better if the whole health care debate was behind us for a meaningful drop. Obama doesn't need a negative like the market tanking when he's trying to muster support.

nbg
nbg
14 years ago
Reply to  Jigsaw

Valid point…….hmmmmm.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Jigsaw

Jigsaw,

I would feel even better if Obama would just resign and Ron Paul would take over. That health care bill is horrible, and it will do tremendous harm to everyone. He's not going to sign his family up on it, why should we have too?

Red

Jigsaw
Jigsaw
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

100% agree! IMO, Obama care has nothing to do with helping people, it's to fulfill his goal of wealth redistribution. It will start out in financial distress like every other government run program. Then the call that little Jimmy needs better medical care will go out and the only way we can give it to him is take more away from the succesfull working people of America. The price we are going to pay for “Hope & Change” will be enormous!

nbg
nbg
14 years ago

Great post and waiting on sidelines still for some discounted stocks. Playing DNDN swings though, for day or two trades.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  nbg

nbg,

Discount stocks won't be here for awhile… at least not long term. If you are talking about short term swings then the 1070 spx mark could be the support level before the finally rally up to 1108.

Fujisan made a nice post over at http://www.slopeofhope.com. She has a little higher target then I have, but at the end of her post, (called “Three Peaks and Domed House”), she also has 1070 as a possible short term bottom on Monday or Tuesday of next week.

After that bottom the rally to 1108 should begin. The first hit at 1108 will be mega resistance. It should NOT get through on the first hit. That means a sell off should happen first.

Red

nbg
nbg
14 years ago

Great post and waiting on sidelines still for some discounted stocks. Playing DNDN swings though, for day or two trades.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

nbg,

Discount stocks won't be here for awhile… at least not long term. If you are talking about short term swings then the 1070 spx mark could be the support level before the finally rally up to 1108.

Fujisan made a nice post over at http://www.slopeofhope.com. She has a little higher target then I have, but at the end of her post, (called “Three Peaks and Domed House”), she also has 1070 as a possible short term bottom on Monday or Tuesday of next week.

After that bottom the rally to 1108 should begin. The first hit at 1108 will be mega resistance. It should NOT get through on the first hit. That means a sell off should happen first.

Red

Jigsaw
Jigsaw
14 years ago

Great post and insight. I would feel better if the whole health care debate was behind us for a meaningful drop. Obama doesn't need a negative like the market tanking when he's trying to muster support.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Jigsaw,

I would feel even better if Obama would just resign and Ron Paul would take over. That health care bill is horrible, and it will do tremendous harm to everyone. He's not going to sign his family up on it, why should we have too?

Red

Jigsaw
Jigsaw
14 years ago

100% agree! IMO, Obama care has nothing to do with helping people, it's to fulfill his goal of wealth redistribution. It will start out in financial distress like every other government run program. Then the call that little Jimmy needs better medical care will go out and the only way we can give it to him is take more away from the succesfull working people of America. The price we are going to pay for “Hope & Change” will be enormous!

nbg
nbg
14 years ago

Valid point…….hmmmmm.

steveo77
14 years ago

Nice post RD!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Thanks, Steveo77…

I try to do my posts a little different then Tim or Mole's. They are really good at the TA charting, which is very helpful in trying to figure out where we are going.

On the other hand, I just like to throw other things out there that seems to be affecting the markets also… and that is the “Manipulation Factor”. Knowing what the insiders are doing, with TA to back it up, makes for a more informed trader.

Red

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