Saturday, July 13, 2024

Let’s flip a coin…

flipping-coin-heads-you-win-tails-i-lose

Tomorrow is a tough call to make.  On one hand, the market did retrace back up as I expected... but it did it on horrible jobs numbers and with a strong push up.  It wasn't a weak move by any means.  As strong as that move was it could continue up tomorrow as Friday's always have light volume... which means an up market.

On the other hand, the 110.34 spy level is still holding back the market.  The rally up today hit the lower point of the gap fill at 109.68, and then fell back.  We could hit 110.34 (about 1108 spx) tomorrow and stall there again.  If volume is really light then the market could push on through it.  If that happen you will also have a big up day on Monday too, as that level is a huge resistance point.

So, my plan for tomorrow is to look for the fall down in the morning.  If it doesn't happen then I'm closing out my short position, as anything can happpen over the weekend.  Since I went short around 1092 Wednesday I'll be getting out about break even.

Everything says the market should fall, but it's not run by logic... it's run my crooks!  Keep that in mind when going short.  I'll go short again when the time seems right again.  But for now, I'm really expecting another up day tomorrow, as it should have fell with the bad jobs numbers.  There isn't much left to cause a down move tomorrow.

Maybe a nuclear bomb going off in New York or something... but I think the market would view it as positive and rally.  That's a few million less people on un-employment!  Duh!  Nothing makes any sense in this rigged game.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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jaywiz10534
jaywiz10534
14 years ago

Hi RED,
My indicators say its DOWn today
Flash looking for 9700, hmmm
Monday should make a lower low, and recover leading to a couple UP days, but NOV 2nd as an important pivot low still stands
MY plan is to close out shorts late today
would like to see the 3pm turn DOWN to make it to 3;45 low
Jay
Monday at noon cycle low offers an opp to go long -2days

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jaywiz10534

I hope your right Jay…

I'll also be closing out my position today. The move up was very strong, and today is Friday… which is usually light volume. That means a up day.

Either way, up or down, I'm closing out today as time value on my options will be killed over the weekend.

Red

jaywiz10534
jaywiz10534
14 years ago

the MAIN reason I would sell today is to be ready to BUY noon on MONDAY
Monday's readings call for gradual improvement
and there is a 13 day cycle pivot low at noon
27th & 28th are indicated quite positive
Jay

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jaywiz10534

We basically closed at 1080 today. That didn't break the support line, and a rally back up could occur on Monday… especially with light volume. We'll see I guess. I did close out my shorts… just to be safe.

Red

ropey
ropey
14 years ago

Looking for a final push into eom – it's end of fiscal year and a huge fed auction on 29th….
watching closely..

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  ropey

Yeah ropey… I agree. It just doesn't seem right yet. I mean the “big correction” of course. We bears have been beaten up so many times that we'll probably miss the big down move anyway.

I feel like the fly in a jar. I've been banging my head on the roof since the March low (going short), and when they finally take the lid off the jar (start the down trend) I wont believe it. I'll probably still be in the jar (sitting on the sidelines in cash) while escape (shorting the market) is just above my head.

Red

binrongb4
binrongb4
14 years ago

OK, are getting emotional again? tut, tut!!!! Juuuuusst kiddin'!!! As I said before, everybody knows the market is being manipulated big time — no use bitching! However, this type of manipulation only goes so far. Trust me, I know. I've been trading for a long time. IMHO, just stay out of the market. That's what I'm doing! I really think that things are coming to a head in the next 10 sessions. We shall see. At any rate, which ever way the market makes its big move, I'll be ready to jump on the tsunami — until then I'll just be a SPECTATOR and watch the ants get crushed!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  binrongb4

I read your post on Alex's blog and you are right… both this rally up and the previous sell off into March of last year was most likely planned. Good comment…

binrongb4
binrongb4
14 years ago

OK, are getting emotional again? tut, tut!!!! Juuuuusst kiddin'!!! As I said before, everybody knows the market is being manipulated big time — no use bitching! However, this type of manipulation only goes so far. Trust me, I know. I've been trading for a long time. IMHO, just stay out of the market. That's what I'm doing! I really think that things are coming to a head in the next 10 sessions. We shall see. At any rate, which ever way the market makes its big move, I'll be ready to jump on the tsunami — until then I'll just be a SPECTATOR and watch the ants get crushed!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

I read your post on Alex's blog and you are right… both this rally up and the previous sell off into March of last year was most likely planned. Good comment…

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