Thursday, December 12, 2024

Stuck in the middle…

lamb-stuck-in-middle

I'm not comfortable going long here, or short... yet.  We are stuck in the middle between solid support at 998-1000, and huge resistance at 1100-1108.  Don't let this sheep be you!  Unless you like to gamble, I'd wait until the direction is clearer.

Wednesday, the Fed's comments should move the market, as it's not going to stay here at 1040 area forever.  So, the question is... which way?  We are clearly oversold, but we are also forming a bearish pattern.  My gut tells me that a small rally will occur to sucker in all the retail bulls.  It should fall just short of key resistance levels to prevent the bears from jumping on and profiting.

You know those market makers like to steal money from both bulls and bears.  So, expect a lot of fake moves.  The trend is down, and no decent rally will occur at this level.  It needs to hit the larger support at 998-1000 before I'd feel comfortable going long.  Even then, it's still only for a few days, and the selling will continue after that rally ends.

So, I'm looking at Scenario Three to play out at this point.  A smaller rally to 105-106 is all I can see right now.  I'd hope'd for 107.30-107.60, but it's not looking too bullish right now.  With Warren Buffett buying Burlington Northern, which caused that stock to trade up about $25.00 to just under $100.00.  That, and the dollar falling should have moved the market higher today. 

But, it barely moved up.  That's very bearish, as the market would have been up 100 points (Dow) or more in the past with that kind of news.  That makes me think that any small negative news will cause more selling.  Be cautious here, until a direction is found.  Personally, I'm waiting a little longer.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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annamall
15 years ago

Great post Red, 🙂

steveo77
15 years ago

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/es.html

Lower target hit, I am thinking how many stops will be swept with a run up….just 5 minutes worth to the 78 Fib.

Red Dragon Leo
15 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

They love to take out those stops don't they? I'm not sure if 1060 was it, or if we back off to 1040 area again, and then go on up to 1073-1076? I'm leaning toward 1060 being the high with the next stop at 1020, then 998-1000.

darely
darely
15 years ago

Nice call on 106 being the likely top of today's move. I hope that prediction holds and we see 100 before we see 106 again. Looking forward to your summary of today's action and predictions from here on.

Red Dragon Leo
15 years ago
Reply to  darely

Thanks Darely,

I should have it up by 9-10pm est. tonight. I have to review some things first.

Red

darely
darely
15 years ago

Nice call on 106 being the likely top of today's move. I hope that prediction holds and we see 100 before we see 106 again. Looking forward to your summary of today's action and predictions from here on.

Red Dragon Leo
15 years ago

Thanks Darely,

I should have it up by 9-10pm est. tonight. I have to review some things first.

Red

steveo77
15 years ago

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/es.html

Lower target hit, I am thinking how many stops will be swept with a run up….just 5 minutes worth to the 78 Fib.

Red Dragon Leo
15 years ago

They love to take out those stops don't they? I'm not sure if 1060 was it, or if we back off to 1040 area again, and then go on up to 1073-1076? I'm leaning toward 1060 being the high with the next stop at 1020, then 998-1000.

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