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Light Volume Puts the Market to Sleep…

By Red, on November 11th, 2009

yawning-cat

Today was real yawner!  The market basically moved nowhere…  and just what’s in store for tomorrow?  More of the same, with an upside bias.  Yes folks, one more day of this nonsense and the market should be back to normal trading.  Which means that a reality check is due.  So, let’s see… is the market really that health or is it sick?

I think it’s sick with false hope, fake numbers, outright lies, and manipulation like you’ve never seen before.  That means we should rally some more, right?  Yeah right… and I’ve got an honest banker I’d like you to meet!  Of course not folks…  I’m looking for selling to take place on Thursday and Friday, as the news out on those days should bring in some bigger volume.   If it’s more then 200 million shares on the spy, we should be heading down.

Like I said in yesterday’s post… 110.34 is like the “Great Wall of China”, and will not be broken easily.  Closing above it is not likely too happen.  I’d like to see the market move up to that level tomorrow, so I can get the best short entry position.  It could do just that since it’s a holiday tomorrow.  That light volume could float the market up to within inches of the wall, and possible go above it briefly to that 1108 spx area everyone is looking for.  I will be pouncing on the bulls when that happens.

Others think we are going higher, until OPX and then rolling over.  I think we are going down toward OPX, and then going higher.  I’m going to try and filter out the noise this time.  I’ve looked back at many of my own forecasts and found that I was pretty accurate on the direction, even though I missed a few ending points.  Overall, if I had followed myself I would have been a whole lot more profitably then I currently am.

There again… learn to stick to a plan.  That’s my lesson for myself today.

Red

Mr. TopStep Can Say It Better Then Me...

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Leo's Den
  • JoeMarc

    well said, I as well will be exiting some longs. Not sure though if we trend down till ate NOV and then rise into DEC

    Thanks
    Joe

    • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

      My forecast has us turning back up on 18th or 19th. However, it could be off a few days as the current turn point down was the 9th and 10th. Of course today is the 11th now as I write this, and the futures are up big. It seems to be off a day or so?

      So, as I posted above, I think today will be a “blow off” top in front of the economic news coming out on Thursday and Friday. If there was ever a day to push the market to new highs, then today is that day.

      Just a side note, the forecast I follow has the Dow at 3000 to 4000 by 2011 or 2012. Yeah… that's some scary stuff my friend! Let's hope it fails, as the world won't be a great place to live if it comes too.

      Red

      • SC

        Interesting. Used to hear about bears calling every uptick a blowoff top. lol But I haven't read about blowoff top lately. It is also interesting that a few long time bears have discarded their EW and wishing that they had never read their EW book. LOL

        Not sure if anyone can pick the exact top or not. But I am hoping that the topping process continues to yield some lead time, as per historical pattern. Declines that take the shape of falling off a knife edge tend to be sharp but shallow and short lived. The declines that result from a topping process are the killer bear market.

        So far, not seeing any topping process yet. A few flashing yellow light. We shall see.

        PS. Thanks for sharing. Keep up the good work, Red.

        • http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

          I'm only a bear on the economy… which is currently disconnected from the stock market. I'll trade bull or bear, as I'm only looking to make money from it.

          As for the “blowoff top” comment… that's the first time I've used it. I was unaware that other bears used it to justify every move up.

          Anyway, you are right, as no one can predict the exact high. Today could have been it, or one more push tomorrow? Hard to say exactly, but we are close. I'll have more thoughts on tonight's post around 9pm-10pm est.

          Thanks for stopping by and commenting. Good or bad, all comments are welcome, as no one is right all the time either.

          Red

          • SC

            I might have given the wrong impression that I was directing my comment at your post, Red. Nothing like that. I wasn't making a critique of your posts at all.

            It was just a general comment, not directed toward anyone in specific.

            I was saying that we don't need to catch the exact top, but having some idea where it is expected, is useful. Love those levels you posted. That allows us to focus our attention on how the market behaves at those levels and take whatever positions we see fit. That's why I said to keep up the good work. Not expecting you to catch the exact top or bottom. lol

  • SC

    I might have given the wrong impression that I was directing my comment at your post, Red. Nothing like that. I wasn't making a critique of your posts at all.

    It was just a general comment, not directed toward anyone in specific.

    I was saying that we don't need to catch the exact top, but having some idea where it is expected, is useful. Love those levels you posted. That allows us to focus our attention on how the market behaves at those levels and take whatever positions we see fit. That's why I said to keep up the good work. Not expecting you to catch the exact top or bottom. lol

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